Week 15 Observations (a bit late)

The Chargers brought the Colts’ undefeated season to an end. They contained RB Edgerrin James and forced QB Peyton Manning out of the pocket where he isn’t as efficient. But the win comes a week too late for the Chargers. They lose the tiebreaker to the Steelers for the 6-seed in the AFC and while they face two quality teams to close the season (at Kansas City, Denver), likely Wild Cards Pittsburgh (at Cleveland, Detroit) and Jacksonville (at Houston, Tennessee) face teams that don’t seem interested in winning.

Too bad FOX doesn’t have another play-by-play announcer to be its #1. Joe Buck just isn’t a football announcer. Sometime during the first half of the Cowboys’ 25-7 debacle in Washington, Buck suggested that Dallas pull QB Drew Bledsoe with next week’s game against Carolina in mind. Despite the fact that a QB throws a ball, the quarterback position is not similar to a starting pitcher in baseball. The QB is the offensive unit’s leader. Oriole SS Cal Ripken Jr. didn’t take innings off for seasons at a time in the mid-80s. At the end of the game, Buck and former Dallas QB Troy Aikman wondered out loud why HC Bill Parcells was still calling timeouts in a 35-7 defeat. The answer is quite simple to anyone who has watched a Parcells-coached team for any length of time over the past 23 years (18 as HC). Parcells was upset that his team didn’t come to play a game that it had to have in order to make the playoffs. His coaching method was to force them to endure the stink of their effort for as long as he could. Parcells isn’t a “nice” coach; he coaches through toughness, and his style isn’t that difficult to comprehend. Dallas was so bad on Sunday that I think Washington could have won the game had they dressed the San Francisco roster in Redskins uniforms.

Speaking of the 49ers, they are really bad. They only managed 5 offensive first downs over the course of the game on Sunday in Jacksonville. For the 7th time this season they didn’t score a touchdown. But their defense was solid, holding Jacksonville to 10 points. Bay Area football fans can take pride in their teams’ efforts Sunday: Jacksonville 10, San Francisco 9 and Cleveland 9, Oakland 7. Thankfully the Raiders didn’t sell out and Cincinnati’s rout of the Lions was televised there.

The Bears had a typical first half Sunday Night. 2 first downs, 4 3-and-outs, and about 60 yards … and a 6-3 lead over the Falcons. Former starting QB Rex Grossman replaced rookie Kyle Orton and led the Bears to 10 points in the 3rd quarter and the final 16-3 winning margin. The Bears could be dangerous in the playoffs; they are 3-0 against the strong teams in the NFC South.

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/6-2/24-26-1
Invest/+2*/-5.0*

INVEST
**9:00 ABC HD New England 26 (-5 ½) N.Y. Jets 9. ABC’s Monday Night Football sure is going out with a bang! No beer will be sold in the stands during the game, but plenty will be consumed in the parking lot beforehand. The Patriots are on a roll right now, just in time for the playoffs. I don’t expect the Patriots to change their approach in the final 2 regular season games even though they can’t do much to improve their playoff seeding. HC Bill Belichick prefers to keep his teams in top form, and since they’ve only had key players like RB Corey Dillon, LB Tedy Bruschi, and DL Richard Seymour in the lineup for a couple of weeks, Belichick will want those guys to be sharp for the playoffs.

Patriots Rounding into Form

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/0-1/18-24-1
Invest/-1.1*/-7.0*

INVEST

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**1:30 FOX HD New England 24 (-5) Tampa Bay 16. The Patriots are starting to get their key performers back. LB Tedy Bruschi has been back for a month. DL Richard Seymour returned last week. The RBs in Buffalo last week weren’t Patrick Pass, Heath Evans, or Mike Cloud, but regulars Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. QB Tom Brady had another strong game despite suffering a leg injury in the 1st half. Tampa Bay has rebounded to win 3 in a row after the San Francisco debacle, but young QBs rarely play well against Bill Belichick coached defenses.

5:00 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2 ½) Kansas City 24. The Giants got an important road win at Philly last week and return to the Meadowlands for their 9th game there this season. QB Eli Manning has not been as efficient the past few weeks, and needs to avoid interceptions. Kansas City is running the ball better with RB Larry Johnson subbing for an injured Priest Holmes. The Chiefs lost to Dallas last week and fell 2 games behins division leading Denver in the AFC West.

8:30 ESPN HD Denver 26 (-8 ½) Buffalo 10. Skip it unless you are a diehard. The Bills go back to Kelly Holcomb at QB with J.P. Losman sidelined with a head injury. RB Willis McGahee also has a head injury, but his is more like former Ealge WR T.O. than a medical one.

SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+7 ½) Indianapolis 27. The Chargers have their backs to the wall in this one. They have playoff aspirations but have lost a number of close games (Dallas, at Denver, Pittsburgh, at Philadelphia, Miami) this season. Three of those five losses came at home; the Chargers had 4th quarter leads against the Cowboys, Steelers, and Eagles. The Colts are attempting not to appear interested in pursuing an undefeated season, preferring to focus instead on staying healthy for the playoffs. I think they’ll be gunning for the 16-0, despite what WFAN’s Mike Francessa thinks.

1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3 ½) Minnesota 20. The Steelers mauled the Bears last week to stop a 3-game losing streak. They will continue their roll through the NFC North. RB Willie Parker should see the bulk of the carries on the artificial turf of the Metrodome. Minnesota has won 6 straight after losing QB Daunte Culpepper for the season to a knee injury. QB Brad Johnson has avoided mistakes during his second stint as Vikings QB. All victories count the same, but the Vikings’ six have come against Green Bay, Cleveland, N.Y. Giants, Detroit (twice), and St. Louis. Only the Giants are still in the playoff hunt, and the Vikings offense posted only a FG in that one, watching and punting while the defense and special teams scored 3 TDs (PR, KOR, Int Ret).

4:15 FOX HD Dallas 23 (+3) Washington 16. Thankfully this game swapped timeslots with the Eagles/Rams game. I don’t think that Washington WR Santana Moss will get behind S Roy Williams this time, but Dallas will have to tackle Moss on the flanker screen. The winner stays alive in the NFC East race while the loser probably only remains mathematically alive for a playoff berth.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Chicago 16 (-3) Atlanta 10. If Falcons QB Michael Vick wasn’t prone to turning the ball over, I would take the Falcons here. Atlanta should study the films of last week’s Bears-Steleers game. RB T. J. Duckett can run the plays that Jrome Bettis did and Warrick Dunn can run the ones that Willie Parker did. When QB Ben Roethlisbreger threw, Vick should run a bootleg. The Bears can be beaten if a team chooses not to risk the football, because the Bears won’t move the ball more than about 25 yards on an offensive possession. Rookie QB Kyle Orton understands the value of the punt in the NFL regular season. It’s a big reason why the Bears lead the NFC North.

9:00 ABC HD Green Bay 16 (+3) Baltimore 13. Skip it unless you are a diehard. Packer QB Brett Favre is struggling with interceptions but has a RB he can trust in Samkon Gado. The Ravens are playing Kyle Boller at QB, who is struggling after returning from a leg injury. ABC sure would like to switch this game out for one with playoff implications. NBC will have that option on Sunday nights next fall.

VT - Stands for Vick's Team

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/2-2/11-8
NFL/1-5/18-23-1
Invest/-2.2*/-5.9*

INVEST
*9:00 ABC HD New Orleans (+10 ½) 20 Atlanta 26. What was ABC thinking scheduling the Saints for a MNF game after November 15th? They have been an entertaining team under HC Jim Haslett and QB Aaron Brooks, but they’ve only had one 10-win season in their 6 year tenure in New Orleans. Atlanta QB Michael Vick makes this game worth watching, and the Falcons need to win this one to stay in the playoff hunt in the NFC, where it’s looking like 10 wins might not be enough to earn a playoff berth. The Falcons will earn the win, but are too inconsistent to be giving any team besides San Francisco 10 ½ points.

The Colts are 13-0 and have wrapped up home field throughout the AFC playoffs. I think their toughest game will be this coming Sunday vs. the Chargers. San Diego sleepwalked through the second and third quarters and wound up losing to Miami. The Chargers are a desperate team and have the offensive balance and players to run with the Colts. Indy can take a huge step by knocking out the team they don’t want to play in the playoffs (after the Patriots, of course) in the regular season.

SF Bay Area NFL coverage on network television stinks. Two weeks ago we were subjected to San Francisco v. Tennessee early and Jacksonville v. Arizona late (the Raiders didn’t sell out as usual). I should have checked the local ratings for the late game. Outdoor Life probably outdrew it with an NHL game. The NFL should establish a new rule for two-market teams (SF, NY). If each franchise wins less than 6 games the previous season, they should have to play at the same time at least 4 times the next season. Yesterday it was a little better. Oakland v. N.Y. Jets early followed by San Francisco v. Seattle and Miami v. San Diego (non-HD) late. The doubleheader game (Mia-SD) was entertaining, but it wasn’t in HD, and Kansas City v. Dallas was on in the same time slot and wasn’t picked by the CBS affiliate in SF. I painfully tune into the NFL Network’s Sunday Drive telecast of a radio show for cut-ins to red zone coverage of other games. I’ve yet to hear any cut-ins to 49er or Raider games. Hmm.

BCS Qualifiers

Notre Dame almost lost out on $15 million with its 4th quarter letdown against Stanford. I don’t know why HC Charlie Weis sent the injured PK (after 2 missed kicks, 1 XP and 1 FG) onto the field after the backup had made a FG. It almost cost the Irish big time.

Colts: 11-0 and looking unstoppable.

Vikings: 4 game winning streak after losing starting QB Daunte Culpepper for the season, the boat party, the Whizinator, HC Mike Tice selling Super Bowl tickets, original new ownership faked being a former NFL player on his resume. With a win over the Lions, the Vikings could actually be tied for the final wild-card spot in the NFC.

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-2/9-6
NFL/3-3/17-18-1
Invest/+1*/-3.7*

INVEST
**#12 UCLA 30 (+24) #1 USC 45. The Trojans haven’t slowed good offenses recenctly… Fresno State put 42 on the board 2 weeks ago. Southern Cal should win, but I can’t see them covering, they’ll need to get into the 60’s to do that.

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
1:00 ABC HD #2 Texas 58 (-27) Colorado 2. Why are they even playing this game? Iowa State tanked it in the 4th quarter at Kansas and gave Colorado its spot back.

2:30 CBS HD Navy 30 (-6 ½) Army 23. This series is going to move back to a field goal spread soon. Army HC Bobby Ross is restoring the program. Navy might be distracted after earning a 3rd straight bowl appearance, to the Pointsetta Bowl in San Diego.

4:30 ABC HD #1 UCLA 30 (+24) USC 45.

6:00 CBS HD #4 LSU 23 (-1) #13 Georgia 20. Because it’s on TV. LSU might be able to move into the title game if either Texas or USC falters earlier in the afternoon.

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (-3) Dallas 23. Both teams suffered tough overtime losses last week and the winner takes sole possession of first place in the NFC East. NY QB Eli Manning is playing better than Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe right now.

1:00 FOX HD Atlanta 19 (+3) Carolina 16. Atlanta QB Mike Vick hasn’t been that consistent throwing the ball; Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is turning the ball over than the Panthers can allow. Incompletions are better than interceptions.

1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3) Cincinnati 16. The Steelers can effectively take a 2-game lead on the Bengals in the AFC North with a victory in this one. They will need to run the ball much better than they did on MNF against the Colts. RBs Bettis, Parker, and Staley were all active, but none was effective. QB Ben Roethlisberger looked rusty against the Colts but his presence is needed to give the Steelers offensive balance. The Bengals can win if they get a solid outing from QB Palmer, RB Johnson, and WR Johnson.

4:15 CBS HD Denver 24 (+3) Kansas City 20. The Chiefs have a great December home record in recent seasons and need this one to pull within 1 game of Denver in the AFC West. The Broncos get RB Tatum Bell back this week and have had 10 days to prepare for this one.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Oakland 24 (+11) San Diego 31. The Chargers will keep rolling towards the playoffs but the Raiders will cover the points as WR Randy Moss finds the end zone in a prime time game.

9:00 ABC HD Philadelphia 22 (+4) Seattle 17. The Seachickens haven’t proven their toughness yet and the Eagles aren’t ready to quit just yet.

When Will the Cowboys Learn?

They shouldn’t wear their blue jerseys at home. Ever. Doesn’t Jerry Jones remember opponents wearing white at home (during the Tom Landry era) to force the Cowboys to wear their blue jerseys? Dallas has 2 home losses this season, to Washington and Denver. Both occurred in with the Cowboys wearing their blue jerseys in front of a national television audience. The Cowboys allowed two long TD passes to Redskins WR Santana Moss within a 120 second span in the closing minutes to lose 14-13. Against Denver on Thanksgiving, PK Billy Cundiff missed a 34-yard field goal that would have given the Cowboys the lead in the 4th quarter. Dallas needs to accept the fact it doesn’t win in its blue jerseys and should stop suffering losses to overcome a superstition.

Texas survived a battle at Texas A&M to stay on target for a Rose Bowl date with USC. They don’t know who they’re playing yet since Colorado forgot to show up for their game against Nebraska. Even a clock operator’s lazy trigger at the end of the first half couldn’t slow the Huskers. The officiating crew must have been big fans of White Sox C A.J. Pierzinski during the ALCS, allowing the participant to pass judgment.
Type/Many Weeks Ago/Season
NCAA/1-0/10-4
NFL/3-1/17-16-1
Invest/+2*/-2.7*

INVEST
*Cleveland 13 @ Minnesota 10 (under 39). Neither of these offenses is particularly good at throwing the football. Both QBs, Dilfer (Cle) and Johnson (Min) aren’t going to take chances that could result in interceptions and short fields for the opposing offense. Somehow the Vikings have rebounded from a 2-5 start, the boat party, and the loss of starting QB Daunte Culpepper to climb back into the NFC playoff race. When will they turn into the real Vikings and disappoint their fans?

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
12:30 FSN Iowa State 19 (-2 ½) Kansas 13. I don’t know a thing about either team, but the Cyclones could earn a berth in the Big 12 Championship game with a win here.

5:00 ABC Notre Dame 38 (-16 ½) Stanford 20. The Irish can lock in their first BCS appearance since 2001 and generate the revenue necessary to pay HC Charlie Weis’ contract extension. This will be Stanford Stadium’s last home game before undergoing a major renovation. Keith Jackson draws the coverage instead of Brent Cheeseburger.

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Tampa Bay 20 (-3) Chicago 13. The Bucs have won 2 straight with QB Chris Simms after 2 duds. The Bears are on a roll, 7-3 with a 2 game lead in the NFC North.

1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+3) Washington 20. The Chargers are on a roll, winning 3 in a row to get to 6-4 in the top heavy AFC. TE Antonio Gates left last week’s game with an injured ankle and is a game-time decision. Washington has lost 2 straight tough games to Tampa Bay and Oakland to fall behind Dallas and New York in the NFC East. Both of these teams need this game to stay near the top of the Wild Card race.

1:00 CBS HD New England 30 (+3) Kansas City 27. The Chiefs have Larry Johnson playing RB in place of an injured Priest Holmes. The Patriots will have Patrick Pass or Heath Evans playing RB in place of an injured Corey Dillon. The Chiefs’ defense started out strong but has reverted to its 2003 form. The Patriots have LB Tedy Bruschi back on the field from an off-season stroke but haven’t been much better than the Chiefs in recent weeks. Patriot QB Tom Brady is carrying more of the load this season due to all of the injuries suffered by his teammates. His clutch play tips my pick New England’s way.

4:15 FOX HD Seattle 24 (-4 ½) N.Y. Giants 17. The national audience will get a chance to view Seachickens RB Shaun Alexander. His numbers have been good, not great against NFL-caliber defenses of Dallas and Washington.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 New Orleans 20 (-2) N.Y. Jets 6. This game was scheduled for prime time back in March. Both of these teams are 2-8. The Jets had Brooks Bollinger, Vinny Testaverde, and Kliff Klingsbury play QB last week in a 27-0 loss at Denver. I don’t know why, but they only ran the ball 7 times over the course of the entire game! With the 3 afore mentioned players at quarterback, I think 7 passes for the entire game would have been more appropriate.

9:00 ABC HD Indianapolis 31 (-8) Pittsburgh 21. The Colts are hitting on all cylinders while the Steelers are dealing with significant injuries. QB Ben Roethlisberger returns from knee surgery. RBs Jerome Bettis, Fast Willie Parker, and Duce Staley have all missed recent games due to injury. It looks like its Parker’s turn to play this weekend. I just can’t see the Steelers offense staying with the Colts in this one. Maybe a month from now if all of the key players are in better health.

NFC North 4-0?

Yes, the NFC North went 4-0 yesterday, with Green Bay and Minnesota springing road upsets at division leading Atlanta and New York (Giants) while Detroit and Chicago won over cellar-dwelling Arizona and San Francisco. It was really windy in Chicago, but the 49er passing game was atrocious. QB Cody Pickett was 1 for 13 for 28 yards with an interception. One completion in 60 minutes of football? The 49ers best offensive play was a punt, as Chicago return man Bobby Wade fumbled 3 punts and the 49ers recovered them all, including one at the Bears’ 3. Two plays netted two yards, then 2 penalties (12-man huddle, false start) put the 49ers into an impossible 3rd and 11 situation. Incomplete pass was the obvious 3rd-down outcome for the 49ers.

The Bears have won 5 straight to put a stranglehold on the NFC North but now will face 4 real NFL teams in the next 5 weeks (CAR, @TB, GB, @PIT, ATL). It’s important to let the teams that will defeat themselves do just that (i.e. MIN, BAL, DET, NO, SF). Now the Bears face the more difficult task of winning games on their own (Hint: Leave the orange jerseys in the closet!)

Steve Spurrier now has victories over Tennessee and Florida in his first season at South Carolina. Things are getting interesting in the SEC East. Alabama wasn’t able to muster enough offense against LSU, the Tigers to be really upset since the only blemish on their record is a 30-27 come from ahead loss to a below average Tennessee team.

Philadelphia Eagles 2005: RIP. They were game for 56 minutes building a 20-7 lead; then gave up a 42 TD second drive. On their ensuing possession QB Donovan McNabb was intercepted by S Roy Williams who returned it for a touchdown. McNabb appeared to aggravate his hernia injury (between the INT return and an earlier 4th quarter scramble) and sat out the final drive that only reached the Dallas 43 yard line. The Eagles ran the ball very successfully with both Brian Westbrook and Lamar Gordon but couldn’t hold the lead. They have now lost 3 straight to fall into the NFC East cellar and are 0-3 in the division.

Hurricanes and Hokies

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/2-0/9-4
NFL/2-4/14-15-1
Invest/-2*/-4.7*

INVEST
Somehow the Bengals were only able to turn 5 interceptions of Packers QB Brett Favre into 21 points.. no missed field goals, only 1 turnover of their own, 22 offensive first downs, ouch. Cincinnat is 3-for-3 in intercepting NFC North QB’s 5 times this season; I’ll be looking for a proposition when they play the Lions to make it 4 for 4 with Joey Harrington back at the helm for an injured Jeff Garcia!

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**7:45 ESPN HD. #6 Miami 17 (+6 ½) #3 Virginia Tech 20. The Hurricanes have rebounded from the opening 10-7 loss to Florida State to climb to the highest ranking of the 1-loss teams. QB Kyle Wright posted solid passing stats after the FSU game until last week against North Carolina, but I attribute that to the Notre-Dame style alternate gold-green uniforms the Canes wore. Virginia Tech QB Marcus Vick is leading a balanced attack, and is more disciplined in the pocket than his brother, Michael. The Hokies haven’t had a close game since their opening game against N.C. State (20-16) but the Hurricanes defense will be their toughest test of the season to date.

#1 USC faces Stanford at 7:00 on TBS. The Cardinal had undefeated UCLA on the ropes last week (ahead 24-3 with 8 minutes to play) but couldn’t hold the lead, losing 30-27 in overtime. #2 Texas is at Baylor, #4 Alabama visits Mississippi State (3:30 CBS), and #5 UCLA visits Arizona in non-national TV games in conference play.

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Carolina (-1 ½) 22 Tampa Bay 10. Chris Simms replaced Brian Griese (knee injury) at QB and the Bucs lost to the Division I-A 49ers last week. The Panthers only beat the Lions by 1 on the road a few weeks ago, but QB Jake Delhomme will limit his TD passes to Carolina players this week. Tampa Bay needs to get RB Cadillac Williams healthy… then evaluate QB Chris Simms’ play.

1:00 CBS HD Oakland 26 (+4 ½) Kansas City 24. The Chiefs’ offense isn’t in gear this season and the Raiders have found the key component to their offense… run the ball with RB Lamont Jordan. It’s too bad for CBS that the 49ers are at home and they can’t move the start time of this game to the 4:15 doubleheader slot. There is one national game on the CBS schedule: 1-6 Green Bay hosting 5-2 Pittsburgh, which will be without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee surgery).

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Washington 27 (-3) Philadelphia 22. The Redskins played poorly last week in New York, but the Eagles did the same in Denver. QB Donovan McNabb started 0-12 with 1 interception. McNabb scrambled once and RB Brian Westbrook had 1 carry while the Broncos jumped out to a 28-0 lead. I would have loved to have seen a montage of the incompletes on PrimeTime! The Eagles are battling through injuries to McNabb (ribs, hernia) and WR Terrell Owens (ankle). I wonder if the fans in Philly have adopted Bostonian’s “That’s Manny being Manny” with respect to T.O. This week’s press comments by Owens about his injuries, McNabb, Brett Favre, etc. might just be the way he expresses his frustrations, but it isn’t that entertaining. T.O. certainly sounds like a kindergartner. Owens has always played at a top level, and McNabb still throws to him because he values winning above T.O.’s public antics. The Eagles need to get things in order on the defensive side of the football. The Redskins played horribly in the Meadowlands last week against a super-charged Giants team. They will be jacked up for this one, playing at home on national TV under the lights. RBs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts should be able to run successfully against the Eagles; and WR Santana Moss is outperforming every WR not named Steve Smith in the NFC this season.

9:00 ABC HD New England 30 (+3) Indianapolis 24. The Colts haven’t gotten this monkey off of their backs yet. They’re 7-0 but have faced only 1 quality opponent (Jacksonville) while the 4-3 Patriots faced Carolina, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Atlanta, and Denver… in succession. Indy QB Peyton Manning hasn’t won in New England and while this Patriots defense isn’t Super Bowl caliber right now, it will be physical in the all over the field. Manning tends to throw the ball into the middle of the field late against the Patriots… a huge mistake with playmakers like LB Tedy Bruschi and S Rodney Harrison in coverage. Even though Harrison is out with a knee injury, his replacement will know to watch the middle of the field late. Those have been key components of New England’s strategy through the years in this rivalry, and I’m picking the Patriots until the Colts win one of these games on the field. The Packers didn’t beat the Troy-Emmitt-Michael Cowboys of the ‘90s… they won the Super Bowl after Carolina took out a weakened Dallas squad. The Colts might need that assistance this season… the Patriots might end up as the #3 or #4 seed in the playoffs this season.

Bengals back in their comfort zone

Pitchers and Catchers in 4 months, give or take a week. Batting Practice for the Astros is scheduled for Monday at 1:00. I don’t know why Garner only bunted his runners to second base. His guys proved they couldn’t get a hit with a runner in scoring position. Worse, the probability of strikeouts increased (exponentially, it seemed) as a runner moved around the bases. They needed to bunt or steal all the way around .

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-1/8-5
NFL/0-5-1/13-16-1
Invest/0*/-2.5*

INVEST
**Cincinnati 31 (-9) Green Bay 21. The Packers offense is reduced to QB Brett Favre and WR Donald Driver. WR Javon Walker and RBs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport are all out for the season. Walker’s replacement was Robert Ferguson. He’s out 4-6 weeks now. The Bengals have lost 2 in a row, but both were to solid AFC teams (@ Jacksonville, Pittsburgh). Now they get back to their comfort zone (they defeated Minnesota and Chicago by a combined 61-15 tally) playing against NFC North foes. The risk in this investment is that the Bengals are without a couple of starters in their secondary, so Green Bay could engineer a back-door cover like they did against Carolina on Monday Night a few weeks ago.

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
3:30 CBS HD #19 Florida 16 (-4) #13 Georgia 10. Unbeaten Georgia starts Joe Tereshinski at QB following the loss of D.J. Shockley to injury. The Bulldogs have struggled against the Gators in Jacksonville, losing 13 of 15. Florida’s new spread offense has struggled against the better SEC defenses, so I expect this game to be a low-scoring affair.

The other undefeated teams aren’t expecting much opposition but can’t afford to suffer a loss. #1 Texas and #2 Southern Cal play winless (in conference) foes this week. Texas plays Oklahoma State on TBS at 7:00 while SC plays Washington St. on ABC (Regional) at 3:30. #5 Alabama hosts Utah State (2-4, 1-3 in WAC) and UCLA visits Stanford (4-2, 3-1 Pac-10) which has recovered nicely from an embarrassing loss to new I-A member UC-Davis. Those games aren’t available on any of the national broadcast or cable outlets.

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Detroit 19 (-3) Chicago 9. If this game doesn’t end in a tie, an NFC North team will have a winning record for the first time since the opening week. Detroit has turned over to the reigns to QB Jeff Garcia who led the team to a 13-10 road victory at Cleveland. His most important stat: 0 interceptions. Demoted QB Joey Harrington threw 5 in the week 2 meeting between these two teams. Bears rookie QB Kyle Orton has done well protecting the football, but I’m not ready to pick the Bears on the road just yet.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 New England 30 (-9) Buffalo 13. The Patriots pulled an NFC North maneuver last week, moving into sole possession of first place by having a bye. They may get LB Tedy Bruschi back from a stroke for this game; their defense is playing like the 2002 edition and not the Super Bowl Championship units. The Pats can’t afford to look ahead to next Monday’s marquee game against the Colts, instead they need to bury their AFC East opponents in order to restore order and prepare for a playoff run, which will include road games. In Belichick I Trust.

9:00 ABC HD Pittsburgh 20 (-10) Baltimore 3. The Steelers earned an impressive victory against the Bengals last week and have the opportunity to bury the Ravens this week. Baltimore is without S Ed Reed and QB Kyle Boller. While Boller may not be even an adequate QB, backup Anthony Wright isn’t at that level. LB Ray Lewis and RB Jamal Lewis are slowed by injuries. The Steelers power running game will face more resistance this week, but QB Ben Roethlisberger’s presence will prevent the Ravens from stacking the line solely against the run.


1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (-2 ½) Washington 21. Both of these teams are off to stronger than expected starts and could maintain their pace for the course of the season. Giants QB Eli Manning is directing a strong offense, even if it has slowed the past 2 weeks (against good defenses). The Redskins were playing great offense before posting 52 points on the Division I-A 49ers. QB Mark Brunell is playing like it is 1999 again. WR Santana Moss is making the offseason trade of #1 WR’s with the Jets (for Laverneus Coles) look like the biggest ripoff since the Cowboys-Vikings Herschel Walker trade (well, almost).

4:00 CBS HD Kansas City 24 (+6) San Diego 26. This game probably won’t have more than a few punts, but I’m not sure that the score will get up into the 30’s. Chargers HC Marty Schottenheimer is more comfortable with scores in the teens or twenties. Both teams will run the ball with their All-Pro runners, Holmes for the Chiefs and Tomlinson for the Chargers. That will keep the game clock moving and keep the number of plays low. While Chiefs HC Vermiel is associated with high-powered offenses in his return to the NFL (StL and KC), it is Mike Martz who is pass-heavy. The Rams ran the ball a lot more last week when Martz wasn’t on the sidelines.

4:15 FOX HD Denver 31 (-3 ½) Philadelphia 20. The Broncos have to be stinging mad after losing a 23-10 4th quarter lead in the Meadowlands to the Giants last week. The week before New England scored 17 unanswered second-half points to place the outcome in doubt until the end. Once, an isolated incident. Twice, a trend. Three times, bad things happen. The Broncos will use their punishing ground game with RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell to control the line of scrimmage. They’ll probably call more running plays on 1 drive than the Eagles will call all game.

The Titanic isn't limited to the Vikings... the Packers are onboard too!

I think that was A. J. Pierzsynski in body paint batting for Jermaine Dye Sunday night. FOX Analyst Tim McCarver said that the HP umpire probably went by sound on the call… guess the rain hardened Dye’s arm into ash.

Too good to be true… the Packers lost to the Vikings 23-20, failig to cover the points after being up 17-0 at the half. To make matters worse, they lost RB Ahman Green for the season to a leg injury in the 2nd half. The Seachickens were just that for about 58 minutes, then scored a TD on offense and set up the winning FG on defense by putting a strong pass rush in Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe’s face to pull out a push (though the line did move to 5 points on game day).

THURSDAY
7:30 ESPN HD #3 Virginia Tech (-14) 34 #14 Boston College 17. The former Big East opponents meet in Blacksburg. The Hokies are a distant third to Texas and USC in the BCS Standings but do have the opportunity to make up some extra ground on the Trojans in the ACC Championship Game. The conference title game gives teams from the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 an edge over the Big 11, Pac 10, and Big lEast teams. This VT team is QB'd by Mike Vick's brother, Marcus, so VT again stands for Vick's Team. The Hokies are coming off a mauling of Maryland 28-9 last week while the Eagles may have been looking ahead to this game while playing Wake Forest 2 weeks ago. Boston College needed 2 TD's in the last 2 1/2 minutes to pull out a 35-30 victory. The Eagles lost 28-17 to Florida State in their one game this season against a ranked opponent.

Seachickens to Avenge Last Year's Monday Night Disaster

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-0/7-4
(Before MNF) NFL/2-3-1/12-11-1
Invest/+2*/-2.5*

INVEST
Notre Dame played a great game against Southern Cal but came up just short at the end. They almost got QB Matt Leinart down inbounds in the final seconds. Then they had a good defensive alignment called against the QB sneak but Leinart was able to slide left with the assistance of RB Reggie Bush and get into the endzone for the winning touchdown. Bush assisted Leinart, but not in an egregious manner that would have drawn a flag. A rules revision could be justified anyway. Since multiple defenders can tackle the ballcarrier, why shouldn’t offensive players be allowed to help the ballcarrier in a “pile” situation?

I’m tempted to take Green Bay over the NFL’s fastest sinking ship, Mike Tice’s Vikings, but it just looks too good to be true.

*Seattle (-3) 27 Dallas 20. The Cowboys just played 2 games against division opponents while the Seachickens didn’t let down too much against the lowly Texans after a road victory over the Rams. WR Joe Jurevicious has been a great pickup for the Seachickens and RB Shawn Alexander is the NFL’s TD leader. This time the defense will hold the Cowboys to less than 2 TDs in the last 2 minutes.

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
3:30 CBS HD #5 Alabama (-3 ½) 20 #19 Tennessee 13. The Tide squeaked by Ole Miss 13-10 with a game-winning field goal as time expired. This is the second of 4 games against ranked SEC teams. Alabama rolled over Florida 31-3 earlier this month but lost WR Tyrone Prothro to a knee injury late in the game. Tennessee’s running game has struggled in losses to Florida and Georgia and the Vols will need balance to win this rivalry game.

3:30 ABC Regional #2 Texas #7 45 (-16 ½) Texas Tech 24. The Longhorns got the big gorilla off of their back earlier this month with a 45-12 rout of Oklahoma. Texas Tech and Texas A&M are the two toughest remaining opponents on the regular season schedule. The Red Raiders have a potent offense, but were mauled 51-21 by the Longhorns last season.


8:00 FOX HD World Series Game 1. I have a hard time rooting for A. J. Pierzinski. I’ll take the Astros since SP Roy Oswalt and RP Brad Lidge were stalwarts on my champion fantasy baseball team.

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Green Bay 37 (-2) Minnesota 0. The Vikings ship is sinking faster than the Titanic, but not fast enough for the corporate NFL. It’s scary to think that WR Randy Moss was one of the good guys holding that group together.

1:00 CBS HD Cincinnati 26 (-1) Pittsburgh 20. The Bengals are favored over the Steelers for the first time in 27 meetings! The Steelers saw enough of QB Tommy Maddox last week to bring Ben Roethlisberger back early from a knee injury. They’ll need better QB performance to get their running game back in gear. RB Willie Parker didn’t do much against Jacksonville with the Jaguar defense unafraid of Maddox’s throwing capabilities. The Bengals are off to a great start behind 3rd year QB Carson Palmer, RB Rudi Johnson, and WR Chad Johnson.

1:00 CBS Philadelphia 27 (-4) San Diego 20. The Chargers can’t win against both of last year’s Super Bowl teams on the road in the same month, can they? The Eagles really need this one coming off a rout at Dallas and a bye.

4:00 FOX HD. Seattle (-3) 27 Dallas 20.

4:15 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2) Denver 20. The Giants will force Broncos QB Jake Plummer to make some plays with his arm, and some interceptions will result.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime
8:00 FOX HD. World Series Game 2.

9:00 ABC HD N.Y. Jets 20 (+7) Atlanta 24. Mike Vick or Vinny T. as QB?

Who Needs a Bullpen?

The White Sox finished off the Angels in 5 games with their starting pitchers recording all but 2 outs! The Angels were behind early in most games and also got themselves behind in the count during most at-bats.
The NLCS Umpires wanted some attention too. I didn’t get to see Game 4 (due to the Millerpalooza Wedding) but the pitch that Cardinals Manager Tony LaRussa chose to be ejected on looked to be clearly inside. But the Jim Edmonds ejection was uncalled for. That pitch looked inside and Edmonds claimed only to ask for information on the call, not to argue it. The umpires should not decide games, and forcing a team to send a pinch hitter up with a 3-2 count amounts to the umpires deciding games.

WR Randy Moss obviously wasn’t the only bad apple in the Minnesota Vikings locker room. If the NFC North wasn’t so bad, HC Mike Tice would be gone by now. But the hapless Vikings are only 1 game behind divison-leading Detroit and Chicago. Those teams’ QB’s have something like 5 road wins in their careers. After Green Bay wins at the Dome, then Tice might get sent packing. That would leave the Vikings at 1-5, and that might be too much to overcome even in the lackluster NFC North.

A. J. Pierszienski’s 2nd Career

It looked to me that White Sox C A.J. Pierszinski made the call on the dropped 3rd strike in Game 2. After the game HP Umpire Drew Eddings said that he “saw the ball change direction”. Where did he get that X-ray vision to see that through the catcher and the glove? The 1B umpire thought it was a valid strikeout, he was on his way to 2nd base and had to sprint back towards first after Pierszinski started racing up the line. Angels C Josh Paul was in the process of rolling the ball back to the mound when Pierszinski took off; he should have checked with the HP umpire before releasing the ball. While it is most important that the umpires get the call right, they also need to be clear in communicating what they call, and the HP umpire clearly wasn’t on that play.

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/3-1/6-4
NFL/2-3-1/10-8-1
Invest/-2*/-4.5*

INVEST
3:30 NBC HD Notre Dame (+11 ½) 34 Southern Cal 30. The Irish will run an efficient ball-control offense to limit the number of USC’s offensive possessions. Irish QB Brady Quinn is off to a great start this season and should post impressive numbers against a vulnerable USC secondary. The Trojans clearly have more talent than the Irish, but won’t be able to wait until the 3rd quarter to start playing well in this one.

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
4:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (+3) Dallas 24. The Cowboys might be due for a letdown after last week’s demolition of the Eagles. RB Julius Jones probably won’t play (ankle). The Giants are off to a flying start behind 2nd-year QB Eli Manning.

1:00 FOX HD Washington 20 (+5 ½) Kansas City 24. The Redskins are one of the early-season surprises. They shocked the Cowboys with 2 late touchdowns in Week 2, then escaped a 4th-quarter Seachicken rally before succumbing to the Broncos last week in the rain 21-19. QB Mark Brunell appears to have turned the clock back to 1999… did he spend the offseason training with 47 year young Braves 1B Julio Franco? RB Clinton Portis has loved running against the Chiefs, but that was behind the Broncos OL. He has been a good runner for the Redskins, but not the game-breaker that he was for the Broncos. The Chiefs need to get TE Tony Gonzalez more involved in the offense and shift the focus of the running game to be 90% on Priest Holmes instead of 60%.

1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 16 (-3) Jacksonville 10. QB Ben Roethlisberger is out with an injured knee suffered on Monday Night’s winning drive. RB Jerome Bettis was effective ans will team with Willie Parker to pound the Jaguars with a physical running game.

1:00 CBS Tampa Bay 19 (-4) Miami 13. Both Florida teams are off to stronger than expected starts this season. I’ll take Tampa QB Brian Griese over Miami QB Gus Frerrote. Dolphins RB Rickey Williams returns from his retirement and substance abuse suspension in this one.

4:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
4:15 CBS HD New England 27 (+3) Denver 24. Tom Brady or Jake Plummer? I’ll take Brady 100 times out of 100. LB Tedy Bruschi is planning on returning to practice next week to help out a struggling Patriots defense.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 Seattle (-9 ½) 30 Houston 17. This could be a letdown opportunity for the Seachickens after last week’s win over the Rams but the Texans are a mess so far this season.

8:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series

9:00 ABC HD Indianapolis 44 (-13 ½) St Louis 20. The Colts have started scoring touchdowns this season, and the Rams haven’t stopped anyone but the Cardinals. I’m tempted to take the over in this one but am not sure how the Rams will react to the loss of HC Mike Martz (heart condition).

8:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series

$205,938,439 Playing Golf

That’s the composite Yankees’ player payroll. The last $80 million bought 2 more games for the Yankees than their hated rivals, the Red Sox, got. At least Kevin Brown’s $15.7 million won’t be back next season, though I still think they should have traded him to Pittsburgh before the season as punishment for him breaking his hand punching a clubhouse wall in September 2004.

Was that Kenny Rogers I saw in the ESPN studios during the weekend? I’m curious what paperwork he has to sign before heading into the studios with all of those valuable cameras.

League Championship Series
The White Sox have been patiently waiting for the Angels and Yankees to complete their series. Frankie Rodriguez got the save, but they Yanks hit 4 rockets off of him in the 9th inning last night. The Angels starting pitching is in disarray w/ Bartolo Colon and Jarrod Washburn injured, but they only received an average of 5 IP from their starters. They overextended their bullpen a little bit to win the series so they’ll probably need a good offensive game to leave Chicago with a split.

The Astros will start Andy Pettite, Roy Oswalt, and Roger Clemens for 6 of the 7 games as necessary against the Cardinals. They don’t hit as well as last year’s team, but they were much more efficient in dismantling the Braves this time.

Angels-6/Cardinals-6.

USC – they didn’t fall behind Arizona, but they did allow 3 TDs to the Wildcats. It will be an entertaining and competitive game Saturday in South Bend on NBC HD.

$121,311,945 Playing Golf

The Red Sox reign ended last night, before 2004 hero SP Curt Schilling took the mound. Ex-Yankee SP Orlando Hernandez escaped a bases-loaded no-out jam out of the White Sox bullpen to close the door on the Red Sox this season.

The Yankees rallied in the rain from a 5-0 deficit to take a 6-5 lead against the Angels, but the Angels posted 3 straight 2-run innings to win 11-7 and take a 2-1 lead. New York’s Game 4 starter isn’t named Brown, Wright, or Pavano; it’s former Colorado pitcher Shawn Chacon (7-3 w/ NY). Both teams are using small ball to manufacture runs, but the Angels are hitting more homers (though C Bengie Molina likely won’t play after being hit on the elbow last night – he has 3 of the 5 Angel homeruns).

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-2/3-3
NFL/2-3/7-6
Invest/+1*/-2.3*

INVEST
**USC 52 (-38) Arizona 7. The Trojans didn’t cover the number on the road last week, and worrisome from a championship perspective, allowed the Sun Devils to retake the lead after rallying from a 21-3 halftime deficit. The Trojans need to be motivated to play from the opening kickoff this week; otherwise I’d expect them to lose at Notre Dame next week.

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
1:00 ABC Texas 38 (-14) Oklahoma 14. This Sooner team has played like ’95 HC Howard Schnellenberger’s edition rather than one during current HC Bob Stoopes tenure. Texas HC Mack Brown finally gets the elusive win over Texas’ biggest rival. ABC’s Keith Jackson makes a (now) rare trip across 2 time zones to broadcast this one.

3:30 CBS HD Georgia 26 (+3) Tennessee 24. Tennessee has another new QB a week after picking a starter.

7:30 TBS UCLA 27 (-1) California 21. Two unbeaten teams meet, UCLA has played the tougher schedule to date, and the Bears have suffered some significant injuries on offense during the warm-up phase of their schedule.

7:45 ESPN HD Ohio St. 27 (-3) Penn St 20. ESPN’s College GameDay is at State College for this one. Both are undefeated thus far, Penn St. HC Joe Paterno is off to his best start since 1999.

SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD New England 23 (+3) Atlanta 16. The Patriots played poorly last week against the Chargers in all phases of the game. DL Richard Seymour joins SS Rodney Harrison on the sidelines this week. New England is in the midst of a brutal schedule run, and while they won’t make it to the postseason with 1 or 2 losses, they still look like the best team in the AFC East. Look at the other starting QB’s in the division: Vinny Testaverde for the Jets, Kelly Holcolmb for the Bills, and Gus Frerrotte for the Dolphins. The Patriots have typically contained running QB’s well; they face the ultimate test this week against the Falcons’ Michael Vick.

1:00 FOX HD. Seattle 34 (+3) St. Louis 27. This doesn’t feature two great teams, but one of these figures to qualify for the playoffs by winning the NFC West. St. Louis had 5 turnovers last week in its loss to the Giants and even the Seachickens defense will capitalize on the Rams carelessness with the football.

4:15 FOX HD Denver 27 (-6.5) Washington 16. The Broncos are successfully pounding teams with multiple running backs. Mike Anderson does the heavy work inside, Tatum Bell gives Anderson a break and adds speed. Ron Dayne is the 3rd man in the equation, and is gaining yards for the first time since he left Wisconsin. The Redskins are a surprising 3-0 after trying to give a game away last week to the Seahawks. QB Mark Brunell is playing like it is 2002 again.

4:15 FOX HD Philadelphia 27 (-3) Dallas 20. The Eagles rallied from a 24-6 deficit to the Chiefs last week to win impressively at Arrowhead. But QB Donovan McNabb took a pounding and figures to endure a difficult game against a physical Cowboys defense. Dallas has played 4 close games to open the season, but they haven’t been consistent on offense or defense. Their scoring drives feature long passes to Terry Glenn, but they only hit one or two of those a game. RB Julius Jones hasn’t run as well as he did last year. The defense is on its way to setting records for most 40+ yard pass plays allowed. It took 2 plays last week for Oakland WR Randy Moss to get behind all 11 defenders for a 73-yard gain. I am dumbfounded that a Bill Parcells coached team doesn’t practice the concept of having a defender behind the deepest receiver… especially in the 3rd season of his tenure.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 Jacksonville 19 (-3) Cincinnati 16. The Bengals are 4-0 for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president (1988)! Jacksonville really needs this win after losing at home to Denver last week.

9:00 ET ABC HD San Diego 24 (-3) Pittsburgh 20. The Chargers looked Super in defeating the Patriots last week in Foxboro. They have rebounded from an 0-2 start with 2 straight impressive wins, scoring over 30 points in each victory. They probably won’t reach that level against the Steelers, but should be able to outscore the Steelers. Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley are ready to return at RB for the Steelers, but Fast Willie Parker is off to a great start and may not relinquish many carries since he has an attribute the other two don’t have: speed.

Baseball’s Division Series

It’s too bad (my opinion) that both the Yankees and the Red Sox qualified. The bulk of the divisional series games are spread out on ESPN w/ FOX showing some Yankees games at 8 pm ET. 8 pm Yankee playoff game start times come in before taxes as the 3rd certainty after life and death.

I can’t see the White Sox having a chance to win a series but do think that these Yankee and Red Sox teams are more flawed than their previous teams. Both are probably relieved that they didn’t miss the postseason to the other and might take a minute to relax. That is too long of a break in a 5-game series. Neither one will be able to start its ace more than once in the opening round.

The Padres shouldn’t be allowed in the playoffs, but they will likely have a higher winning percentage than the NFC North qualifier, where if the Bears lose to the Browns and the Lions lose to the Ravens, a team will move into first place on its bye week for the 3rd straight week. ESPN’s Berman’s best line from PrimeTime last night: “In the NFC Norris, if you don’t play any games, you’ve got a great shot at making the playoffs!” The sorry Packers could make it 4 straight the following week except that the Vikings play the Bears and one of those teams will win or tie (I think).

The Braves haven’t won a NLDS since John Smoltz was in their rotation. His arm might not have enough left in it to get through a playoff start though. Maybe this young Braves team will outperform the recent veteran editions.

White Sox-4/Angels-4/Cardinals-4/Braves-5.

Check out ESPN’s Bill Simmons for some good Red Sox reading.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/simmons/index

High Stress in Red Sox-Yankee Land

The Indians are screwing things up. They’re supposed to be winning these games so that the Red Sox or the Yankees stay home from the playoffs and cause severe hemorrhaging. In Boston’s case it will be the fans and in New York’s it will be management. The Sox won 5-3 last night behind Mercenary David Wells (NYY from ’97-98, ’02-03). 2004 Yankee 1B John Olerud contributed a SF to the Sox cause last night. Each team has a situational LH reliever on its roster that the other released midseason. LHP Mike Stanton came over to the Red Sox from the Nationals this week while the Yankees signed LHP Alan Embree and IF Mark Bellhorn during the summer after the Red Sox released them. If the Indians weren’t struggling (lost 4 of 5), the Red Sox and Yankees would each need 2 wins in order to qualify for the playoffs. 2004 playoff hero Curt Schilling is scheduled to start Sunday vs. Mike Mussina, Schilling has struggled recovering from the ankle injury that he had jury-rigged during the playoffs last season to help the Sox win their first championship since 1918.

Found an interesting site run by a couple of die-hards.

http://www.yankeesredsox.com


Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-0/4-3
NFL/2-2/5-3
Invest/-2.2*/-3.3*

The Patriots had an extra 52 seconds to work with last week but don’t think that the officiating error was a lopsided one. I’m sure the Steelers would have been sweating their tying TD a little bit more if the clock was reading in the :30’s rather than 1:+.

I left off the USC-Oregon game last week and that looked like a mistake for a half as Oregon capitalized on USC mistakes to take a 13-0 lead. But the Trojans cut the deficit to 3 by halftime and then scored 5 TDs in the second half to win going away, 45-13.

The Rams recovered from a slow start against Tennessee to take a 7-point 4th quarter lead but a bizarre incorrect officiating call ended a scoring opportunity and gave the Titans the FG they needed to cover the number. Rams QB Marc Bulger’s pass clearly went forward, across the 30-yard line stripe. It was ruled a fumble, and the replay official must have been tired of HC Mike Martz’s challenges. Maybe that’s why he’s in the hospital this week. ESPN’s PrimeTime crew continued their Don’t criticize anyone ways, claiming insufficient evidence. Um, the 30-yard line goes across the whole field!

INVEST
Oakland 35 (-3) Dallas 20*. Once, an isolated incident. Twice, a trend. Three times, a problem. That’s SS Roy Williams in 2-deep coverage the past 2 weeks against the Redskins and 49ers. The Cowboys only have to face the most vertical passing attack in the league in this one.

SATURDAY
1:00 ET FOX HD Yankees: Randy Johnson (16-8) @ Red Sox: Tim Wakefield (16-11). White Sox Reserves: Garland (17-10) @ Indians: Westbrook (15-14).

3:30 ET ABC USC 48 (-16) Arizona State 24. I’ll be picking the Trojans to cover the points until they don’t.

3:30 ET CBS HD Alabama 19 (+3 ½) Florida 13. Florida’s new spread offense struggled in its other game against a good SEC defense, managing just 16 points against Tennessee.

4:45 ET ESPN Notre Dame 26 (+3) Purdue 24. HC Charlie Weis continues the Irish revival.

SUNDAY
1:00 ET ESPN HD Yankees: Mussina (13-8) @ Red Sox: Schilling (7-8).
1:00 ET ESPN2 HD? White Sox Reserves McCarthy (2-2) @ Indians: Elarton (11-8).

1:00 ET CBS HD San Diego 20 (+5 ½) at New England 24. The Patriots lost SS Rodney Harrison for the season due to injury last week. They still managed to win at Pittsburgh though. One reason why the Patriots are able to succeed despite numerous injuries is that every player on the roster is accustomed to playing. The Chargers got a much-needed victory last week and certainly have the talent to break the Patriots’ long winning streak at Gillette (soon to be P&G?) stadium.

1:00 ET CBS HD Jacksonville 20 (-4) Denver 14. This game could finish in under 3 hours, a rarity now with all of the long commercial breaks. Both teams emphasize running inside, so there doesn’t figure to be many points scored in this one.

4:15 ET FOX HD Philadelphia 24 (+1 ½) Kansas City 21. I’ll take the better defense in this one, even if the Eagles have a new kicker (David Akers must have watched some Curt Schilling video while preparing for the Raiders game last weekend) and a significantly injured Donovan McNabb. WR Terrell Owens and RB Brian Westbrook were great the last 2 weeks against the Bay Area teams.

7:30 ET ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 ET San Francisco 30 (+2 ½) v. Arizona 18. The first NFL regular season game scheduled for Mexico, maybe the Cardinals will eventually get their first touchdown this season. QB Josh McCown is in for the injured Kurt Warner, but regardless of who the QB is, Arizona needs to start gaining some positive yards on the ground in order to have success. The 49ers came from ahead to lose last week to the Cowboys at the Stick last weekend. Cowboy fans outnumbering Niner fans ticked off the liberal sports-talk hosts in the Bay Area who were mad that Niner fans may have sold their tickets to Cowboy fans instead of giving them to Niner fans. It costs about $3-400 per game for 4 seats, and fans tend to keep good seats when a team struggles so that they don’t have to move to the nosebleeds when the on field performance picks up. 10 games x $300 = $3-4K for the season. If a fan can lower the season costs by a few hundred bucks by selling a couple of games, maybe that fan will be able to buy gas to get to the games in December.

MONDAY
1:00 ET ?ESPN/ESPN2. 1-game playoffs (if necessary) for the final spots. Yankees-Red Sox or Yankees-Indians or Red Sox-Indians and/or Phillies-Astros. If the Yankees, Red Sox, and Indians all finish tied, the Red Sox play the Yankees on Monday in New York and the loser plays the Indians on Tuesday for the Wild Card. One of those teams could have a beleaguered bullpen at the start of the division series.

9:00 ET ABC HD Carolina 31 (-7) Green Bay 20. The Packers are off to a horrible start this season. They can’t stop the opposition, and their offensive line play is down following the loss of both starting guards to free agency. The Panthers can’t afford to fall any further behind the 3-0 Buccaneers who have exceeded expectations out of the gate this season behind RB Cadillac Williams.

Mike Martz Ready to Fly Past Titans Again

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-2/3-3
NFL/2-1/3-1
Invest/-1.1*/-1.1*

INVEST
St. Louis 37 (-6 ½) Tennessee 20**. Tennessee played their Super Bowl last week. It was their home opener against rival Baltimore. The Titans and Ravens played several significant regular season games in recent seasons for playoff positioning and/or AFC playoff games. Ravens QB Anthony Wright doesn’t have the ability to be a full-time NFL starter; Rams QB Marc Bulger has a home winning percentage in the vicinity of .850. The Rams have offensive balance (if HC Mike Martz realizes that running plays are legal) with RB Stephen Jackson and WRs Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Kevin Curtis. The Titans’ defensive shortcomings will be exposed by “The Greatest Show on Turf”.

SATURDAY
If your team is playing as scheduled, tune in. There only game that figures to have BCS implications has been moved to Monday due to Hurricane Rita.

SUNDAY
1:00 ET CBS Philadelphia 31 (-8 ½) Oakland 20. Because it’s on TV! That’s what makes this game worth watching. It’s the most intriguing early Sunday game, which speaks volumes. It’s a battle of Prima Donna WR’s, Terrell Owens (PHI) and Randy Moss (OAK). I’ll take the team with the better defense in this one.

4:15 ET CBS HD New England 30 (+3) at Pittsburgh 24. The 2 meetings between these teams last season weren’t close. Early turnovers staked the Steelers to a 21-3 lead in October. In January the Patriots jumped at to a 24-3 lead. Pittsburgh has Fast Willie Parker at RB instead of powerful Jerome Bettis or Duce Staley. The New England defense has done better against backs like Bettis or Staley than Parker, so this could help the Steelers. New England will have to contain QB Roethlisburger (they didn’t in the first game but did in the 2nd) in order hand him his first regular season loss as a starter.

7:30 ET ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 ET San Diego 30 (-5 ½) v. NY Giants 20. The Chargers are eventually going to show up this year, right? TE Antonio Gates was in the lineup last week and had a good game, but didn’t see much red zone activity. RB LaDamian Tomlinson had 2 TDs, but still hasn’t caught a pass yet this season. HC Marty Schottenheimer must know that I drafted QB Drew Brees in one of my virtual leagues this season! The Bolts had 14 points in the first 20 minutes last week, then didn’t do much of anything until late in the 4th quarter. They’ll be fired up for this one with QB Eli Manning making his first trip to the city he refused to play for.

MONDAY
7:30 ET ESPN2 HD? Tennessee 23 (+7) LSU 17. This game was originally in the Saturday 7:45 time slot but was moved due to Hurricane Rita. I figure that the Tigers will suffer from the affects of Katrina on the football field. Their 28-point 4th quarter in the road opener at Arizona State was incredible, but emotional energy can only last for a short period of time. Tennessee suffered a loss at Florida last weekend; they do need to improve on offense. There were too many 3-and outs by the Vols last week.

9:00 ET ABC HD Kansas City 27 (+3) at Denver 20. The Chiefs can make a huge statement with a victory in this game. It would be their second road divisional victory. RBs Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson are both off to a good start this season. The defense followed up a near shutout of the Jets with a solid performance against the Raiders (17 points). Denver took awhile to get going versus the Chargers last week, but eked out a 20-17 win on a last-second Jason Elam field goal. The Broncos changed pace last week and got solid play from a 1st-round RB. Ron Dayne was the RB of choice in the 4th quarter… I think he gained more yards last week than he did in some seasons with the NY Giants! Quality depth is good news for the Broncos since RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell are suffering from injuries. Their success with Dayne makes me really wonder why they spent a 3rd round draft choice on Maurice Clarett. That’s a move I expect from Rams HC Mike Martz, not Broncos HC Mike Shanahan.

Red Sox v. Yankees

So the Red Sox and the Yankees are now tied in the loss column… I wish I could be listening to WEEI 850 AM in Boston these days… And to think that the Yankees are this close despite losing the season series to the Devil Rays! Their series to close the season at Fenway could be for a playoff spot and not for playoff positioning.

What I learned watching football this weekend:
1. USC is really good. Offensive stats in the 2nd quarter: 8 plays, 256 yards, 28 points.
2. GE has some changes to the Notre Dame Broadcasting Company this year. HD broadcasts this year and a variance in the kickoff time. I saw the 3:30 ET start for the Michigan State game and immediately thought it was an ABC game since the NBC starts have always been 2:30 ET. On the field, HC Charlie Weis has the offense off to a good start, will he be able to stay a step ahead of the defensive adjustments?
3. CBS is televising the SEC in HD, though they don’t seem to show higher profile games than ESPN, which has 3-4 games weekly in HD on its Thursday and Saturday schedules.
4. When a team trades Randy Moss (like the Vikings did), it might consider changing some of the plays in the playbook (especially if the offensive coordinator leaves too). The scary thing is, even at 0-2 with 1 offensive touchdown in 2 games, they’re not in bad shape (I left their bandwagon after last December's debacle). Detroit and Chicago are tied atop the division at 1-1. The Bears lost to the Redskins 9-7 in a game that ended before a typical Mark Buerhle start, then walloped the Lions 38-6 while Detroit QB Joey Harrington played down to his historical average (5 ints). Green Bay followed its opening day loss to Detroit with a home loss to the lowly Browns. 7-9 might win the NFC North this season.
5. What were the Cowboys thinking wearing blue jerseys at home Monday Night? Teams used to wear white at home for one reason: to force the Cowboys to wear blue jerseys wear their winning percentage is markedly lower. Owner Jerry Jones thought his Aikman-Smith-Irvin team could overcome the blue jersey handicap, but they fell victim to a Thanksgiving day upset at home in blue shirts, and those special edition jerseys weren’t worn again. The Cowboys manhandled the Redskins for 55 minutes Monday Night, but allowed WR Santana Moss to run two go routes for touchdowns in 3 plays late in the 4th quarter to enable the Redskins to steal a 14-13 victory! Serenity Now!

Weekend Football Forecast

Type/ Last Week/ Season
NCAA /0-0/ 2-1
NFL /1-0/ 1-0
Invest/ 0-0-1/ 0-0-1

INVEST

St. Louis 30 Arizona 27 (over 44 ½)*. I think I’d pick the Rams to win this one, but would rather go to the roulette wheel. Both teams have offensive minded coaches that love the passing game, and even if Kurt Warner doesn’t play well, he’ll help the Rams put points on the board. Then the Cardinals will turn to Josh McCown, who should play like he did in 2003 rather than last year when he didn’t have any competition pushing him. Arizona was a “sleeper” pick by some, but they had better get RB J.J. Arrington going or it will be another long season in the desert, and for my virtual football teams!

SATURDAY

3:30 ET ABC Regional Michigan St. 24 (+7) Notre Dame 27. HC Charlie Weis has the Irish winning as often as the Patriots. Now the investors will be jumping on the Irish bandwagon, which is why I’m picking the Spartans to cover.

7:45 ET ESPN HD Boston College 16 (+1) Florida State 10. The Seminoles outwilled the Hurricanes 2 weeks ago 10-7 in a very sloppy game, even for an opener. The offensive problems for Florida State look pretty basic; poor blocking at the point of attack. Miami has great defensive players, but even great defensive players are sometimes blocked. I didn’t see much blocking occurring in Tallahassee on Labor Day. Florida State couldn’t establish a running rhythm or give its quarterback time to throw. The only consistent positive plays on the offensive side of the ball were screen passes… plays where the linemen are supposed to let the defenders through. That won’t be successful for long in the ACC.

8:00 ET CBS HD Tennessee 20 (+6) Florida 23. The Gators get a real test after two warm up games against some directional schools. Tennessee has won its last 2 trips to Gainesville. This one should be fun to watch, Tennessee’s power running offense against the offense many I-A teams are switching to, the spread.

SUNDAY
Note that there is only 1 NFC game on this slate. That isn’t an accident. I wonder if FOX took the NFC’s poor quality into account when they bid for the NFC portion of the NFL regular season last winter.

1:00 ET CBS Jacksonville 20 (+9) Indianapolis 27. It took the Colts a half to break through the Ravens’ defense last week, but QB Peyton Manning found the end zone twice in the 3rd quarter to pace the Colts to a 24-7 victory. The Jaguars beat the Seachickens, who wisely decided to abandon the Blue Man Group look in the humidity last weekend. Indy's defense hasn't proved it's tough; until that happens I can't give more than 7 points to a quality opponent.

4:15 ET CBS HD San Diego 24 (+2 ½) Denver 21. Both of these favorites lost outright last weekend, and neither one can afford to fall 2 games behind the Chiefs this quickly. The Chargers get All-Pro TE Antonio Gates back from a holdout related suspension. No doubt he or RB Ladamian Tomlinson would have been good options inside the Cowboys’ 10 last week on the final drive. Broncos RB Mike Anderson is supposed to be available, but who will see the bulk of the carries, Anderson or 2nd-year RB Tatum Bell?

ESPN 7:30 ET HD NFL PrimeTime… Bring back the old music. 8:30 ET Kansas City 34 (-1) Oakland 27. RBs Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson combined for 195 yards and 3 TDs in the Chiefs’ impressive 27-7 victory against the Jets. The Chiefs’ defense will get a tougher test from the Raiders’ offense than they did from the Jets. ABC’s John Madden questioned why any team would trade Randy Moss (or any other player with similar talent). The answer was shown during the failed 2-pointer against the Patriots. Moss ran towards the DB, then grabbed him and threw him down when QB Kerry Collins’ pass was closer to the DB than to Moss. Announcers Al Michaels and Madden thought the obvious call was defensive pass interference, but they must have been munching on a turkey leg during the play. It was very clear that Moss initiated the contact. Additionally, there were numerous plays where Moss jogged his route… just track the replays where Moss isn’t the receiver… chances are he’s just out for a jog through the park… and watch how that affects how long Raider QB Kerry Collins has to hold the football while Moss Terry Glenn’s it.

MONDAY

ABC 9:00 ET Washington 16 (+6) Dallas 20. They could have shown Despearate Housewives as a lead-in to this one in recent years. But Dallas posted an impressive victory at San Diego last week. (I’m curious what Vegas would set the over-under on NFC road wins vs. AFC teams at this season) The Cowboys could challenge the Eagles in the NFC East if QB Drew Bledsoe doesn’t revert to his old habits. Bledsoe’s 134.4 QB rating was the best in the league in week 1. The Redskins defeated the Bears 9-7 and have reinstated QB Mark Brunell as the starter. Brunell didn’t have much arm strength last season, and RB Clinton Portis hasn’t found holes like he did in Denver.

Tuesday Morning Quarterback

It was a great sight to view the scene at Carolina for the opener between the Saints and Panthers. The Saints earned a 23-20 opening win in the first of 16 potential road games.

Barry Bonds finally made his debut in 2005 (was it a coincidence that the Giants’ uniforms spelled GIGANTES last night?), and doubled off the wall (and a fan’s outstretched hand) in his first plate appearance. He did have complications after a knee surgery, but why were the Giants as in the dark on Barry’s rehabilitation progress as ESPN’s Barry Bonds reporter, Pedro Gomez?

Last night’s game between the Falcons and Eagles… I guess the NHL is back, with some player ejections before the opening kickoff. Speaking of other leagues, Falcons QB Mike Vick has an NBA style license. In the 2nd quarter, Vick made it look like he was going out of bounds; then stepped out just before receiving a tap in the shoulder from an Eagle defender. Vick was still on the white sideline boundary, and was less than a step from the defender when he stepped out of bounds. The officials flagged the Eagles for an unnecessary roughness personal foul for hitting Vick “late”. I’d love to show that official a highlight from the Steelers and Patriots in the 97-98 playoffs. Steelers QB Kordell Stewart got out of the pocket, and hustled towards the sideline ahead of the first down marker. As Patriot LB Ted Johnson chased a coasting Stewart towards the sideline, Johnson let up. Stewart cut hard upfield after passing a slowing defender, and scored on a 30-yard scramble for the deciding points in a 7-6 Pittsburgh victory. Back to the Monday Night game, the possession before the flagged tap of Vick, Eagles kindergartener Terrell Owens took a second hit from Falcons LB Keith Brooking after popping up too quickly after being tackled. If Vick gets protected, then all players should be protected.

Black uniforms… at least ravens are black. Lions? Guess that they shouldn’t be wearing blue either… but we know from watching the Browns and Bungals that orange isn’t the best option for football uniforms.

The Raiders’ blocked extra point against the Patriots cost me a victory on the opening week’s investment recommendation. The Raiders later went for 2 and didn’t convert, leaving the final total at 50 instead of 52.

NFL OPENER!

9:00 ET ABC-HD New England 34 (-7.5) Oakland 24 (over 50)*. The Patriots open the season aiming to go 1-0 (towards a Super Bowl 3-peat). Coordinators Weis and Crennel are now head coaches someplace else, and ILB's Bruschi and Johnson (head injuries). HC Belichick, QB Brady, and S Rodney Harrison are still there though. And the men replacing the departed coaches and players are similar in manner and skills. The Raiders have great offensive talent, RB Lamont Jordan and WR Randy Moss are the big offseason acquistions. Jordan is more important than Moss; last year's leading rusher was RB Amos Zeroeue with 425 yards. When the Patriots have been vulnerable, it has been to the ground game. I don't think Oakland will be the team that breaks New England's 20-game home winning streak.

Key: # of stars = # of units for a recommended investment.

College Football 2005

It's already underway... Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team was great for about 20 minutes, then lethargic the next 40 in a 24-15 victory over U Can't Finish, er, Central Florida.

The picks (Games to Watch)
SAT 5:30 ET ESPN Georgia (-7) 41 Boise State 31. Boise State starts the season ranked from a mid major conference (the Mountain West?) for the first time in school history.

SAT 8:00 ET ABC Notre Dame (+3) 22 Pittsburgh 17. Charlie Weis won more games with New England than Dave Wannstedt did with Miami. The Panthers were the first team to effectively fire their head coach during a BCS Bowl season... somehow they emerged from a 4-way 4-2 tie atop the Big lEast last season and qualified for the Fiesta Bowl, where they were mauled by Utah, 35-0.

MON 5:00 ET ABC Miami 16 (-3) Florida State 10 They now play to open the season instead of early October. Thus, one of these teams will need help right from the get-go. The Seminoles successfully petitioned the PC-minded NCAA to retain their nickname. On the field, they have suffered 4 losses several consecutive seasons as some of Bobby Bowden's assistants have taken head coaching positions. I'll wait until I see the Seminoles beat the Hurricanes before I pick them, even though Miami hasn't had consistency from the QB position since Ken Dorsey left after the 2002 season.

Resuming Posts

It's been too long since I've posted, but plan on being active here on at least a weekly basis during football season.

Terrell Ownens - didn't he finish Kindergarden 25 years ago?
Rafael Palmeiro - We should have known something was up when he waved his finger at the Congress during his steroid testimony.

It's late August and the Yankees are in a 4 team race for the AL Wild Card.... what the heck is going on around here? The Braves once again have the lead in the NL East, but all 4 division foes are within range, and over .500... will any NL West team finish over .500? Heck, Barry Bonds could still save the Giants' season.

Cindy Sheehan - she's not speaking for ALL families who have lost family members during the Iraq war; MSM may love giving her 15 days of fame, but the internet and Fox News exist now to offer outlet to another perspective.

Speaking of MSM, how about Brokaw, Rather, and Jennings all leaving their seats within the same year? I find the only permanent replacement, Brian Williams very unimpressive. His next probing follow-up question will be his first. He's much better suited for being a sideline reporter for a sports broadcast.

The Minuteman Project was criticized when it debuted several months ago, but the NM and AZ governors have recently declared "states of emergency". Coincidence?

That's all for now...

MPA Awards

I only caught a bit of the Oscars lead-in… the ABC host said with a smile on her face “Barbara Streisand just called us on her cellphone to say.. she’s running a bit late….” unless her home was in the process of falling into the Pacific, who really cares? I loved the report of the billboards in the L.A. area thanking Hollywood and the Entertainment Industry for their efforts in re-electing the President. From the FNC All-Star Panel, 4 in 10 (D) planned on watching, while only 1 in 8 (R) planned on tuning in. Don’t worry, even though I’m in CA, I haven’t switched sides. I relinquished control of the clicker at the Fitness Center… The Replacements was unwatchable from a technical standpoint (2 delay of game penalties moved the line of scrimmage from the 20 yard line back to the 8… some Supreme Court Math took place there…. After all it was set in D.C….. interesting)

Hunter S. Thompson in the Media

I followed the coverage of Hunter S. Thompson’s suicide the past week and can’t say that
a) I am surprised by the event or
b) the coverage of it.

My only exposure to his work is his column on ESPN’s Page 2 since the subject generally was short-term investing. Over time his columns were as much about politics as they were about wagering. If he had an account at Tradesports.com investing on politics, that may have been a factor in his demise. His writing was entertaining, but its generation seemed to require chemical consumption, alcohol, tobacco, and illegal drugs. I can’t see how that should be glorified. I think the number of glorification columns regarding his work and life is telling. Yes, it’s a great to celebrate constant intoxication and disregard for the rules of society. One thing that resonates in my mind is his prediction (in agreement w/ the MSM) that the current Democratic Party platform is a winning one.

HST 11/2/04: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=thompson/041102

SF Chronicle 2/26/05: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/02/27/INGLPBGC6S1.DTL

CALIFORNIA

I arrived in CA last Tuesday with the odometer at 29611. I-80 in Nevada has to be one of the most desolete roads in the country. There were numerous times where the only visible sources of light were from the moon and my Trailblazer. There was no Sprint cell coverage across the entire state until the Reno-Sparks area. Stats from the final leg of the drive: 979 miles in 14:15, an average speed over ground of 68.7 mph.

The rainy season is in full force in Northern California, but I guess I should have expected it since I've frequently enjoyed the great skiing conditions at nearby Lake Tahoe.

COLORADO

It took a long time for me to get to the Mountain Time Zone but I finally made it last Thursday. 1000 miles from New Orleans to Amarillo on Wednesday followed by a 600 mile run to Fort Collins on Thursday. Breckenridge was the ski destination on Fri/Sat/Sun.

New Orleans - Tue - was Mardi Gras Tuesday and the parades were a lot of fun, I made sure to pay attention to the floats so as not to be nailed in the side of the head with a string of beads or other projectile.

Breckenridge - A great ski town and a fun mountain to ski. I rode a T-Bar for the first time since 99... the last time that I was there I think.

PATRIOTS

A typical performance by the Patriots, albeit with some uncharacteristic errors by them early on (7 penalties including some false starts on offense that contributed to making only 1 first down in the first quarter). They took away RB Brian Westbrook in Philly's running game, and never allowed QB Donovan McNabb to maintain balance by scrambling. WR Terrell Owens (9 rec, 122 yds) was outstanding; much better than I thought physically possible. But TO was limited to being a possession receiver, and the Patriots defense was able to force 4 Eagles turnovers by making the Eagles sustain long drives in order to score (the 3 TD drives were 9, 10, and 13 plays in length).

Philadelphia kept New England's highly efficient offense in check. RB Corey Dillon only had 75 yards. The longest passing play by New England was 27 yards on a catch and run by Deoin Branch. The Eagles won the 3rd down battle, 56% to 33%. The key statistics that New England won were turnovers (4 to 1) and rushing yards (112 to 45).

Dynasty: To their credit, none of the players say it. They approach every play of every game with the same focus and attention to detail. Next season will be a greater challenge with the departure of OC Charlie Weis and DC Romeo Crennel, but HC Belichick and the 53 players truly believe that they are equal to the other 31 teams at 0-0 when the 2005 season begins.

HIGHWAY DRIVING

The first lengthy leg of my trip was from Rochester, NY to Dayton, OH. The Trailblazer ran smoothly at 75 mph, enabling me to cover 475 miles in 7.0 hours (including 3 pit stops). Traffic flowed much better in PA and OH than it does in Mass; I didn't need to pass many vehicles on the right. The next leg is to New Orleans, LA. There is a Syracuse game on ESPN that night as well, but I don't think that I'll make it in time for opening tip at 7.

PRO HOCKEY

I had the pleausre of viewing AHL hockey in Rochester Friday evening. Three First Period Goals and a few fights reminded me how enjoyable it is to watch in person, even if the NHL Owners aren't willing to stage games this season.... the NHL may go the way of sports like Cliff Diving and Wrist Wrestling that were featured on Wide World of Sports and now ridiculed on Cheap Seats on ESPN Classic.

SUPER BOWL 39

New England 30 *(-7) Philadelphia 20 over 47.

The Patriots are 1 victory away from equaling the Cowboys' run of 3 championships in 4 seasons. They dismantled two strong AFC opponents, the Colts and the Steelers, in the playoffs. New England took away Indy's downfield open-space passing game, then shut down Pittsburgh's power running game a week later while making big offensive plays against the NFL's #1 defense.

Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb might be a tougher QB for the Patriots to contain then Manning and Roethlisberger were since he is mobile and effective throwing the ball all over the field. Not having WR Terrell Owens at full strength is a huge handicap for the Eagles to try to overcome against the solid Patriots defense. RB Brian Westbrook is the playmaker that McNabb will look for; WR Greg Lewis has the ability to get open downfield; New England has been playing reserves at CB in the playoffs, but that hasn't hurt them yet.

The Eagles are a good football team like the Patriots, but unlike the Colts (offense) or Steelers(defense), they don't have an advantage against the Patriots in one aspect of the game. The hallmark of Bill Belichick's Patriots has been to play hard every play, all 11 players on the field, all the time. I don't see that changing in this game. I thought New England was at risk against the Colts with both coordinators departing, both starting CB's out, DL Seymour out, the 5-yard chuck penalty being enforced, etc., etc. Instead, they dominated the Colts offense and wore down a strong effort by a below average Colts defense. Once the Patriots reminded me how good they are, they went back to being my pick to win the title.

Side Investments: **New England (-2.5) more first downs than Philadelphia. I can't see the Eagles sustaining drives having to throw the ball to Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston.
*Brian Westbrook (under 66.5 yards rushing). The Patriots LB are the strongest part of their defense.

SNOWMOBILING

It was a mild day on Monroe Lake (near East Stroudsburg, PA). Temps were in the upper 30's with a good portion of sun. The snow was a little choppy and slushy on the lake, but that offered the best conditions since snowfall there has been very limited this winter. The open space on the lake enabled full-throttle operation.... I only pushed my sled to 80 and was the slowest one out there! We had 5 riders and 7 sleds and even picked up a guest rider on an off day from a Manhattan job. He got to take a few laps on one of the spare sleds.

Lunch at Squaw Valley 

WELCOME!

I'm embarking on a cross-country trip in the course of accepting a job promotion and that will be the initial subject of this blog. After that, news, politics, sports, coffee, and whatever other subjects are interesting enough to write about and discuss.

24648 - mileage on the Trailblazer at the start of the Trip
1st leg - Merrimack, NH to Tappan, NY. Pit stop in Glastonbry, CT to unload some excess moving material and recaffeinate.

Moving

1. Pile A - what the movers pack
2. Pile B - what I want to take
3. Pile C - not in A or B

Lessons Learned - always schedule the movers to come right before trash pickup day. This allows the size of Pile C to be controlled to fit into my vehicle (I continually think my SUV has the cubic volume of a 15' box truck for some reason). It really does take two days to clear everything out of the house. Empty boxes seem to have something in common with larvae, once they hatch, they're everywhere!