Patriots Rounding into Form

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/0-1/18-24-1
Invest/-1.1*/-7.0*

INVEST

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**1:30 FOX HD New England 24 (-5) Tampa Bay 16. The Patriots are starting to get their key performers back. LB Tedy Bruschi has been back for a month. DL Richard Seymour returned last week. The RBs in Buffalo last week weren’t Patrick Pass, Heath Evans, or Mike Cloud, but regulars Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. QB Tom Brady had another strong game despite suffering a leg injury in the 1st half. Tampa Bay has rebounded to win 3 in a row after the San Francisco debacle, but young QBs rarely play well against Bill Belichick coached defenses.

5:00 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2 ½) Kansas City 24. The Giants got an important road win at Philly last week and return to the Meadowlands for their 9th game there this season. QB Eli Manning has not been as efficient the past few weeks, and needs to avoid interceptions. Kansas City is running the ball better with RB Larry Johnson subbing for an injured Priest Holmes. The Chiefs lost to Dallas last week and fell 2 games behins division leading Denver in the AFC West.

8:30 ESPN HD Denver 26 (-8 ½) Buffalo 10. Skip it unless you are a diehard. The Bills go back to Kelly Holcomb at QB with J.P. Losman sidelined with a head injury. RB Willis McGahee also has a head injury, but his is more like former Ealge WR T.O. than a medical one.

SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+7 ½) Indianapolis 27. The Chargers have their backs to the wall in this one. They have playoff aspirations but have lost a number of close games (Dallas, at Denver, Pittsburgh, at Philadelphia, Miami) this season. Three of those five losses came at home; the Chargers had 4th quarter leads against the Cowboys, Steelers, and Eagles. The Colts are attempting not to appear interested in pursuing an undefeated season, preferring to focus instead on staying healthy for the playoffs. I think they’ll be gunning for the 16-0, despite what WFAN’s Mike Francessa thinks.

1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3 ½) Minnesota 20. The Steelers mauled the Bears last week to stop a 3-game losing streak. They will continue their roll through the NFC North. RB Willie Parker should see the bulk of the carries on the artificial turf of the Metrodome. Minnesota has won 6 straight after losing QB Daunte Culpepper for the season to a knee injury. QB Brad Johnson has avoided mistakes during his second stint as Vikings QB. All victories count the same, but the Vikings’ six have come against Green Bay, Cleveland, N.Y. Giants, Detroit (twice), and St. Louis. Only the Giants are still in the playoff hunt, and the Vikings offense posted only a FG in that one, watching and punting while the defense and special teams scored 3 TDs (PR, KOR, Int Ret).

4:15 FOX HD Dallas 23 (+3) Washington 16. Thankfully this game swapped timeslots with the Eagles/Rams game. I don’t think that Washington WR Santana Moss will get behind S Roy Williams this time, but Dallas will have to tackle Moss on the flanker screen. The winner stays alive in the NFC East race while the loser probably only remains mathematically alive for a playoff berth.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Chicago 16 (-3) Atlanta 10. If Falcons QB Michael Vick wasn’t prone to turning the ball over, I would take the Falcons here. Atlanta should study the films of last week’s Bears-Steleers game. RB T. J. Duckett can run the plays that Jrome Bettis did and Warrick Dunn can run the ones that Willie Parker did. When QB Ben Roethlisbreger threw, Vick should run a bootleg. The Bears can be beaten if a team chooses not to risk the football, because the Bears won’t move the ball more than about 25 yards on an offensive possession. Rookie QB Kyle Orton understands the value of the punt in the NFL regular season. It’s a big reason why the Bears lead the NFC North.

9:00 ABC HD Green Bay 16 (+3) Baltimore 13. Skip it unless you are a diehard. Packer QB Brett Favre is struggling with interceptions but has a RB he can trust in Samkon Gado. The Ravens are playing Kyle Boller at QB, who is struggling after returning from a leg injury. ABC sure would like to switch this game out for one with playoff implications. NBC will have that option on Sunday nights next fall.