NBC HD 3:30 ET Michigan (+7) 20 Notre Dame 16. The Irish got things untracked last week against Penn St, now continue the Big 10 portion of their schedule against Penn St. Michigan HC Lloyd Carr is on the hot seat and it's been a few years since his team has played well against the Irish.
ESPN on ABC HD 3:30 ET Miami (+ 4 1/2) 23 Louisville 20. The Hurricanes aren't that good, but the Cardinals are without star RB Michael Bush (season-ending injury). Pretty soon ESPN will be supplying all of the announcers to the ABC games.
CBS HD 3:30 ET Auburn 16 (-3) LSU 10. What was I thinking buying Navy tickets for the Stanford game on this day? I should upgrade the projector to a multi-input model for this time slot!
CBS HD 8:00 ET Florida 30 (-3 1/2) Tennessee 24. The Gators have owned the Vols in recent years and will offer a tougher opposition than the Cal Bears did.
ABC HD 8:00 ET Nebraska 20 (+19) USC 35. The Trojans got off to a slow start (for them) against Arkansas a couple of weeks ago, but after losing Leinart, White, and Bush, there's no surprise or shame to that. They stopped covering big spreads about the halfway point last season, and I haven't seen their defense improve enough to feel confident giving away more than 2 TDs.
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
NFL Week 1
This year offers the biggest change for the TV viewer since FOX grabbed the NFC in 1993 and added the score box for out-of-town games that now includes updates for fantasy football players.
NBC - I like Cris Collinsworth and Sterling Sharpe. I think they'll offer some critical sarcastic humor to the highlight/pregame show before the Sunday Night Game. I'd like to see them do their show a little bit more like NFL PrimeTime and a little bit less like FOX's Terry Bradshaw.
ESPN - Get Ron Jaworksi into Joe Theismann's chair. NOW! He offered the first criticism of Raider WR Randy Moss that I've heard. On a play where the CB covering Moss left him to defend the ball, Moss held his arms up in disgust for not being thrown the ball depsite being open. Jaworksi correctly pointed out that Moss wasn't open until the CB reacted to the ball being thrown to somebody else! Jaws has done some great work using the NFL Films library for ESPN's studio and pre-game shows; I'm ready to listen to him do live games. I'm also inclined to think that Tony Kornheiser will work in the booth, he's very entertaining on PTI. I especially liked his line to getting Monday Night players on his fantasy team so that he'll maintain interest in the game he's being paid to broadcast! I miss Chris Berman and Tom Jackson doing NFL PrimeTime before the Sunday Night game, they did the highlights of a few games in the NFL Blitz segment that was woven into SportsCenter at 11 ET, but it wasn't as good as the old PrimeTime. ESPN has SuperBowl-like pregame show planned for every MNF game, they have some opportunity for PrimeTime highlights, but at a day old in today's information age, I don't know how entertaining it could be.
CBS - I didn't get to see any of their coverage.
FOX - Get Joe Buck off the air. I just don't find his attempts at humor marginally funny and when he does play-by-play he doesn't seem to recognize that he's at a football game instead of a baseball game.
ABC - I noticed that the Ohio St-Texas graphics had an ESPN-on-ABC logo to them; Interesting branding.
NBC - I like Cris Collinsworth and Sterling Sharpe. I think they'll offer some critical sarcastic humor to the highlight/pregame show before the Sunday Night Game. I'd like to see them do their show a little bit more like NFL PrimeTime and a little bit less like FOX's Terry Bradshaw.
ESPN - Get Ron Jaworksi into Joe Theismann's chair. NOW! He offered the first criticism of Raider WR Randy Moss that I've heard. On a play where the CB covering Moss left him to defend the ball, Moss held his arms up in disgust for not being thrown the ball depsite being open. Jaworksi correctly pointed out that Moss wasn't open until the CB reacted to the ball being thrown to somebody else! Jaws has done some great work using the NFL Films library for ESPN's studio and pre-game shows; I'm ready to listen to him do live games. I'm also inclined to think that Tony Kornheiser will work in the booth, he's very entertaining on PTI. I especially liked his line to getting Monday Night players on his fantasy team so that he'll maintain interest in the game he's being paid to broadcast! I miss Chris Berman and Tom Jackson doing NFL PrimeTime before the Sunday Night game, they did the highlights of a few games in the NFL Blitz segment that was woven into SportsCenter at 11 ET, but it wasn't as good as the old PrimeTime. ESPN has SuperBowl-like pregame show planned for every MNF game, they have some opportunity for PrimeTime highlights, but at a day old in today's information age, I don't know how entertaining it could be.
CBS - I didn't get to see any of their coverage.
FOX - Get Joe Buck off the air. I just don't find his attempts at humor marginally funny and when he does play-by-play he doesn't seem to recognize that he's at a football game instead of a baseball game.
ABC - I noticed that the Ohio St-Texas graphics had an ESPN-on-ABC logo to them; Interesting branding.
Friday, September 01, 2006
NCAA Viewing Guide
2006 Football is here!
The NCAA season got started last night with ESPN opening in Starkville, MS. Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks opened with a 15-0 win over Mississippi St. His punter had the big play of the game, running for a first down after deciding he couldn’t get the planned punt off. South Carolina continued that drive for a field goal and a 2-possession lead.
Saturday 8:00 ET ABC HD Notre Dame 34 (-6 ½) Georgia Tech 24. The Irish return QB Brady Quinn, WR Jeff Samardzija, and a whole cast of others from last year’s successful team. Their defense will need to contain Georgia Tech WR Calvin Jackson, who has the skills that USC’s receivers have been displaying under Pete Carroll.
8:45 ET ESPN HD Arkansas 20 (+7 ½) Southern Cal 24. The Trojans have to replace their entire offense except WR Dwayne Jarrett, or so it seems. Last time they had to do that, the replacements were Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and LenDale White. Will lightning strike twice for Pete Carroll? I don’t think so, but USC will find a way to collect victories.
Monday 8:00 ET ABC HD Miami 19 (-3) Florida State 13. The Seminoles lucked out last year when they clearly lost the line of scrimmage but managed to win an ugly 10-7 decision because their special teams weren’t as bad as Miami’s. The Seminoles aren’t what they were in the 90’s and it will show in this game.
The NCAA season got started last night with ESPN opening in Starkville, MS. Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks opened with a 15-0 win over Mississippi St. His punter had the big play of the game, running for a first down after deciding he couldn’t get the planned punt off. South Carolina continued that drive for a field goal and a 2-possession lead.
Saturday 8:00 ET ABC HD Notre Dame 34 (-6 ½) Georgia Tech 24. The Irish return QB Brady Quinn, WR Jeff Samardzija, and a whole cast of others from last year’s successful team. Their defense will need to contain Georgia Tech WR Calvin Jackson, who has the skills that USC’s receivers have been displaying under Pete Carroll.
8:45 ET ESPN HD Arkansas 20 (+7 ½) Southern Cal 24. The Trojans have to replace their entire offense except WR Dwayne Jarrett, or so it seems. Last time they had to do that, the replacements were Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and LenDale White. Will lightning strike twice for Pete Carroll? I don’t think so, but USC will find a way to collect victories.
Monday 8:00 ET ABC HD Miami 19 (-3) Florida State 13. The Seminoles lucked out last year when they clearly lost the line of scrimmage but managed to win an ugly 10-7 decision because their special teams weren’t as bad as Miami’s. The Seminoles aren’t what they were in the 90’s and it will show in this game.
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
The Red Sox
The Sox didn't win any games against the Yanks in that 5-game set... losing some late leads, unable to get runs across versus Rivera, had a bullpen ERA over 12, it was ugly. Saw them play Monday in Oakland, and it looked more like a spring training lineup - no Manny, No Ortiz, No Manny Ortez, the 2B and SP were wearing #'s in the 60's, castoffs Carlos Pena and Eric Hinske were in the lineup, etc., etc. etc. I saw on ESPN's news crawl that Ortiz was experiencing irregular heartbeat symptoms, so his injury concerns are whole-life, not baseball (don't try to separate the two when speaking to Red Sox fans).
In the National League, none of the teams seems willing to take charge. 8 teams are within 3 games in the loss column, 10 within 5. Even the Marlins with their $14 million payroll are in that group after winning 8 in a row. Consider this: Take SP Dontrelle Willis' salary ($4.35 million) off their books (which might have been attempted in July), and the teams payroll drops below $10 million! The Yankees pay 11 individual players more than that and will pay about $28 million to the leauge office in payroll luxury tax! I wonder how much of that $28 million the Marlins are getting... My Braves didn't make the summer run towards the Wild Card that I thought they would, but any of the teams within 3 in the loss column has a near-equal chance to take the last postseason berth.
NCAA football starts this weekend, and the NFL the following weekend. QB Jeff George is on an NFL roster again, and WR Terrell Owens is vintage 2005, not 2004 for the Cowboys. His response to HC Bill Parcells wanting to see him on the field before playing him: "There's 10 years of film". Actually, TO, there's only 9 1/2. PK Mike Vanderjagt hasn't been on the field in the Dallas games that I've watched; I interpret that as not a good sign for a team where Owner Jerry Jones had more influence in selection of those players than Parcells would have liked.
In the National League, none of the teams seems willing to take charge. 8 teams are within 3 games in the loss column, 10 within 5. Even the Marlins with their $14 million payroll are in that group after winning 8 in a row. Consider this: Take SP Dontrelle Willis' salary ($4.35 million) off their books (which might have been attempted in July), and the teams payroll drops below $10 million! The Yankees pay 11 individual players more than that and will pay about $28 million to the leauge office in payroll luxury tax! I wonder how much of that $28 million the Marlins are getting... My Braves didn't make the summer run towards the Wild Card that I thought they would, but any of the teams within 3 in the loss column has a near-equal chance to take the last postseason berth.
NCAA football starts this weekend, and the NFL the following weekend. QB Jeff George is on an NFL roster again, and WR Terrell Owens is vintage 2005, not 2004 for the Cowboys. His response to HC Bill Parcells wanting to see him on the field before playing him: "There's 10 years of film". Actually, TO, there's only 9 1/2. PK Mike Vanderjagt hasn't been on the field in the Dallas games that I've watched; I interpret that as not a good sign for a team where Owner Jerry Jones had more influence in selection of those players than Parcells would have liked.
Thursday, August 17, 2006
Yankees v. Red Sox
It's a 5-game series this weekend with the opener on ESPN @ 1pm ET Friday afternoon. The Sox are without C Jason Varitek and OF Trot Nixon while the Yankees have received good production from trade deadline acquisitions P Corey Lidle and OF Bobby Abreu. RP Octavio Dotel was jsut activated from the DL to setup CL Mariano Rivera. Unlike recent years, the Sox have to sweat the Wild Card race. The White Sox and Twins are much hotter than any of the teams the Sox have had to beat out for the Wild Card the past 4 seasons. There will be plenty of opportunity to catch $320 million payroll during the weekend on national television:
Saturday 1 PM ET - FOX
Sunday 8 PM ET - ESPN
Monday 1 PM ET - ESPN2
Good news for these two: The White Sox and Twins play each other in a 3-game series this weekend.
Saturday 1 PM ET - FOX
Sunday 8 PM ET - ESPN
Monday 1 PM ET - ESPN2
Good news for these two: The White Sox and Twins play each other in a 3-game series this weekend.
Monday, July 31, 2006
MLB Trading Deadline
Well, the Yanks added some pop by getting OF Bobby Abreu from the Phillies. No SP changed teams was better than Corey Lidle, so the Bombers didn't lose any ground in that department. My question, who among Sheffield, Matsui, and Abreu goes into the rotation when they're all healthy enough to play? We know Damon can't reach the plate from the pitcher's mound, so it won't be him!
The Braves are done in the NL East. I was tempted to write them off at the end of June, but their bats were on fire into and out of the All-Star break. But Chipper Jones is on the DL and star SP Tim Hudson is getting hit as hard as a slow-pitch softball pitcher. The 1-5 homestand against the Marlins and Mets closed the deal on the Braves' amazing run of 14 straight divison titles. ESPN.com hailed Leo Mazzone as the best assistant coach of all-time, it should be noted that this year's Atlanta staff is among the league worst in ERA, WHIP, and blown saves. It's too early to pass judgment on new pitching coach Roger McDowell (Hudson didn't come to Atlanta needing Mazzone and #3 and #4 starters Mike Hampton and Horacio Ramirez have spent more time on the DL than J. D. Drew) but Mazzone always seemed to get enough production out of his staff.
Playoff Predictions:
AL: Yankees, Tigers, A's. WC: Red Sox.
NL: Mets, Cardinals, Padres. WC: Braves.
The Braves are done in the NL East. I was tempted to write them off at the end of June, but their bats were on fire into and out of the All-Star break. But Chipper Jones is on the DL and star SP Tim Hudson is getting hit as hard as a slow-pitch softball pitcher. The 1-5 homestand against the Marlins and Mets closed the deal on the Braves' amazing run of 14 straight divison titles. ESPN.com hailed Leo Mazzone as the best assistant coach of all-time, it should be noted that this year's Atlanta staff is among the league worst in ERA, WHIP, and blown saves. It's too early to pass judgment on new pitching coach Roger McDowell (Hudson didn't come to Atlanta needing Mazzone and #3 and #4 starters Mike Hampton and Horacio Ramirez have spent more time on the DL than J. D. Drew) but Mazzone always seemed to get enough production out of his staff.
Playoff Predictions:
AL: Yankees, Tigers, A's. WC: Red Sox.
NL: Mets, Cardinals, Padres. WC: Braves.
Friday, July 28, 2006
Last Man on the Plane!
I just completed my 2-week annual training aboard the USS O'KANE out of Pearl Harbor. Spending some extended time underway on the surface allowed me to realize that the submarine force was the right service selection for me.
I was all set to return this afternoon when the gate agents announced that the plane needed a mechanical part that was located on the mainland. They were trying to rearrange the flight schedules to limit our delay but speculated on a 5-hour delay. I attempted to change to the American flight leaving about 30 min later, but wasn't able to do so over the phone. So I hustled to the gate where the agent said that they were full, but to wait by the gate in case something opened up. Luckily it did when former NFL LB Bill Romanowski upgraded to 1st class and freed up a seat for me. He looked a bit thinner, and older in the face than I'd expect. I didn't get an opportunity to thank him since he was busy w/ his laptop and cell phone at the gate right up until it was closed. This was the 2nd straight year that I got the last seat on an airplane flying east over the Pacific!
Turns out that I may not have been too far eff recommending Laura Ingraham for the CBS News Anchor Chair. Katie Couric told Access Hollywood that she wouldn't go to the Middle East to cover the news becuase "it's dangerous there". Shouldn't Katie have moved over to Access Hollywood if she only wanted to report news from "safe" places? Does "If it bleeds, it leads" ring any bells to her? Was she listening to any of the news headlines that Ann Curry was reading on the Today set? Can CBS get a discount on the $15 million that they're going to pay Katie since now they have to send someone else to go to those "dangerous" places? Leadership by example is strong; as Managing Editor, I deduce leadership is expected/warranted/part of that title, I'm observing some great leadership, Katie.
I was all set to return this afternoon when the gate agents announced that the plane needed a mechanical part that was located on the mainland. They were trying to rearrange the flight schedules to limit our delay but speculated on a 5-hour delay. I attempted to change to the American flight leaving about 30 min later, but wasn't able to do so over the phone. So I hustled to the gate where the agent said that they were full, but to wait by the gate in case something opened up. Luckily it did when former NFL LB Bill Romanowski upgraded to 1st class and freed up a seat for me. He looked a bit thinner, and older in the face than I'd expect. I didn't get an opportunity to thank him since he was busy w/ his laptop and cell phone at the gate right up until it was closed. This was the 2nd straight year that I got the last seat on an airplane flying east over the Pacific!
Turns out that I may not have been too far eff recommending Laura Ingraham for the CBS News Anchor Chair. Katie Couric told Access Hollywood that she wouldn't go to the Middle East to cover the news becuase "it's dangerous there". Shouldn't Katie have moved over to Access Hollywood if she only wanted to report news from "safe" places? Does "If it bleeds, it leads" ring any bells to her? Was she listening to any of the news headlines that Ann Curry was reading on the Today set? Can CBS get a discount on the $15 million that they're going to pay Katie since now they have to send someone else to go to those "dangerous" places? Leadership by example is strong; as Managing Editor, I deduce leadership is expected/warranted/part of that title, I'm observing some great leadership, Katie.
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
I'm Keith Hernandez!
What the heck was Keith Hernandez thinking when he chastised the Padres for having a woman in the dugout during their game against the Mets last wekeend? She's a member of the training staff, something that Hernandez thought unfathomable before he opened his mouth. I loved the clip of broadcast partner Gary Cohen "I think you should stop talking now" trying to get Hernandez to end his rant. I don't think that Hernandez's comments were in line with today's thinking, but he's entitled to his opinion. He didn't say that a woman couldn't do the job, just that if it were up to him, a woman wouldn't be doing the job... which is why I don't think an apology (he rambled through one later in the game) was necessary.... anyone who heard his rant understood that he just didn't realize he was broadcasting a game in 2006 and not 1906. And it sheds new light on his Just For Men hiar dye commercial... he might actually think that real life plays out just like the script!
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Why Katie? Why not Laura Ingraham?
It's been too long since I've posted, but hopefully I'll get some regular opinions on the board.
Katie Couric replaces Dan Rather at CBS... doesn't make much sense from a business standpoint. There is one news outlet that caters to conservative viewers (Fox News Channel) and a slew of them catering to liberal viewers (to varying degrees: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, PBS). With the populace's ideology split pretty evenly between the liberal and conservative camps, why would CBS continue to compete against 5 competitors instead of 1? It would make sense to compete against only the Fox New Channel for conservative viewers... CBS would generate higher ratings, which translates into more ad dollars!
I've been following the real estate market on the blogosphere and in the local news. A 1-BR 722 sq ft Condo down the street from me went for 400K! Supply and demand will eventually determine the outcome of the recent price increases, but rising interest rates and prices will damper both investor and occupier demand for homes.
Katie Couric replaces Dan Rather at CBS... doesn't make much sense from a business standpoint. There is one news outlet that caters to conservative viewers (Fox News Channel) and a slew of them catering to liberal viewers (to varying degrees: ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, PBS). With the populace's ideology split pretty evenly between the liberal and conservative camps, why would CBS continue to compete against 5 competitors instead of 1? It would make sense to compete against only the Fox New Channel for conservative viewers... CBS would generate higher ratings, which translates into more ad dollars!
I've been following the real estate market on the blogosphere and in the local news. A 1-BR 722 sq ft Condo down the street from me went for 400K! Supply and demand will eventually determine the outcome of the recent price increases, but rising interest rates and prices will damper both investor and occupier demand for homes.
Sunday, February 05, 2006
Super Bowl XL, not “Blue Man Group”
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-9
NFL/0-2/30-31-1
Invest/-3.0*/-3.1*
6:30 ET ABC (6) Pittsburgh 31 (-3.5) (1) Seattle 24.
** over 47
** Total FG by both teams under 3.5
* Shaun Alexander under 92.5 yards rushing
When Seattle earned its Super Bowl berth, I thought, at least its an even-numbered Super Bowl, so the Steelers will pick to wear their black jerseys, and the Seahawks won’t be in their Blue Man Group uniforms. But Steelers HC Bill Cowher chose to ride the road success Pittsburgh has sustained and the Steelers will wear their white jerseys. The Steelers are aiming to be the first #6 seed to win the Super Bowl in the 16 seasons of 12 playoff teams. They defeated the top 3 seeds in the AFC playoffs. Closer inspection reveals that they aren’t a typical #6 seed. First is their 11-5 record instead of the average 9-7 mark. Second, they lost 2 games to directly attributable to horrible backup QB play by Tommy Maddox (who hasn’t been the same since suffering a neck injury at Tennessee in 2003). Change those 2 losses to victories, and the Steelers are 13-3 and the #2 seed. Third, they posted impressive victories during the regular season over San Diego and Chicago. Finally, they were 15-1 last season, and their only significant free agent loss was WR Plaxico Burress.
Pittsburgh has had success in the playoffs starting the game with a downfield passing attack. That has enabled them to take quick leads the last 2 weeks at Indianapolis and Denver. I expect Seattle to open defensively keying on that instead of stacking the line to stop the run. RB Willie Parker hasn’t had much success against good defensives this season, Jerome Bettis might get some carries outside of the red zone if Parker continues to struggle (including fumbling the ball).
Seattle followed its poor performance against Washington with an outstanding one against Carolina. QB Matt Hasselbeck has played 2 great games in the postseason. He has moved out of the pocket and spread the ball among his wide receivers and tight ends, making it more difficult for defenses to stop the Seahawks offense. RB Shaun Alexander had his first 100-yard game in the postseason last week. Of the Steelers 3 postseason opponents:
1. The Bengals eventually suffered after All-Pro QB Carson Palmer was knocked out of the game on the first play from scrimmage.
2. The Colts refused to play physically when the Steelers went with speed to counter the Colts’ spread offense.
3. The Broncos’ Jake Plaummer reverted to his historical tendencies in the AFC Championship game.
Of Pittsburgh’s 3 playoff opponents, the Seahawks offense is most like the Bengals’. Matt Hasselbeck isn’t as great downfield as Carson Palmer is (few are), but he has had strong seasons 3 years in a row. RB Shaun Alexander has been the most productive back in football over the past 5 seasons. He isn’t the power runner that Cincinnati’s Rudi Johnson is, but has more speed and better vision to find holes. Seattle doesn’t have any WR that is as explosive (in any form) as Chad Johnson is, but they do get solid production from Darrell Jackson, Bobby Engram, and Joe Jurevicious as a unit. Jackson and Engram missed significant parts of the season due to injury; but both are healthy now, and don’t have as much wear on them because of the time that they missed.
I expect the Steelers to win the game, but they need to play from ahead. If Seattle gets the lead and forces Pittsburgh to be a one-dimensional passing offense, then the result will be like the 38-31 game that the Bengals won at Heinz Field in December.
Propositons: Even though this game is in a dome, teams don’t tend to kick field goals in Super Bowls. Last week’s game against a Carolina defense that was on the field for the whole game was the only time that Alexander has even gotten close to 90 yards rushing in a playoff game. I’d consider Willie Parker’s under, but expect the Seahawks to open the game pushing the Steelers to run the ball because Roethlisberger has been so effective so far in the playoffs. Thus, Parker could get off to a strong start and make 61 yards on the ground.
NCAA/0-0/11-9
NFL/0-2/30-31-1
Invest/-3.0*/-3.1*
6:30 ET ABC (6) Pittsburgh 31 (-3.5) (1) Seattle 24.
** over 47
** Total FG by both teams under 3.5
* Shaun Alexander under 92.5 yards rushing
When Seattle earned its Super Bowl berth, I thought, at least its an even-numbered Super Bowl, so the Steelers will pick to wear their black jerseys, and the Seahawks won’t be in their Blue Man Group uniforms. But Steelers HC Bill Cowher chose to ride the road success Pittsburgh has sustained and the Steelers will wear their white jerseys. The Steelers are aiming to be the first #6 seed to win the Super Bowl in the 16 seasons of 12 playoff teams. They defeated the top 3 seeds in the AFC playoffs. Closer inspection reveals that they aren’t a typical #6 seed. First is their 11-5 record instead of the average 9-7 mark. Second, they lost 2 games to directly attributable to horrible backup QB play by Tommy Maddox (who hasn’t been the same since suffering a neck injury at Tennessee in 2003). Change those 2 losses to victories, and the Steelers are 13-3 and the #2 seed. Third, they posted impressive victories during the regular season over San Diego and Chicago. Finally, they were 15-1 last season, and their only significant free agent loss was WR Plaxico Burress.
Pittsburgh has had success in the playoffs starting the game with a downfield passing attack. That has enabled them to take quick leads the last 2 weeks at Indianapolis and Denver. I expect Seattle to open defensively keying on that instead of stacking the line to stop the run. RB Willie Parker hasn’t had much success against good defensives this season, Jerome Bettis might get some carries outside of the red zone if Parker continues to struggle (including fumbling the ball).
Seattle followed its poor performance against Washington with an outstanding one against Carolina. QB Matt Hasselbeck has played 2 great games in the postseason. He has moved out of the pocket and spread the ball among his wide receivers and tight ends, making it more difficult for defenses to stop the Seahawks offense. RB Shaun Alexander had his first 100-yard game in the postseason last week. Of the Steelers 3 postseason opponents:
1. The Bengals eventually suffered after All-Pro QB Carson Palmer was knocked out of the game on the first play from scrimmage.
2. The Colts refused to play physically when the Steelers went with speed to counter the Colts’ spread offense.
3. The Broncos’ Jake Plaummer reverted to his historical tendencies in the AFC Championship game.
Of Pittsburgh’s 3 playoff opponents, the Seahawks offense is most like the Bengals’. Matt Hasselbeck isn’t as great downfield as Carson Palmer is (few are), but he has had strong seasons 3 years in a row. RB Shaun Alexander has been the most productive back in football over the past 5 seasons. He isn’t the power runner that Cincinnati’s Rudi Johnson is, but has more speed and better vision to find holes. Seattle doesn’t have any WR that is as explosive (in any form) as Chad Johnson is, but they do get solid production from Darrell Jackson, Bobby Engram, and Joe Jurevicious as a unit. Jackson and Engram missed significant parts of the season due to injury; but both are healthy now, and don’t have as much wear on them because of the time that they missed.
I expect the Steelers to win the game, but they need to play from ahead. If Seattle gets the lead and forces Pittsburgh to be a one-dimensional passing offense, then the result will be like the 38-31 game that the Bengals won at Heinz Field in December.
Propositons: Even though this game is in a dome, teams don’t tend to kick field goals in Super Bowls. Last week’s game against a Carolina defense that was on the field for the whole game was the only time that Alexander has even gotten close to 90 yards rushing in a playoff game. I’d consider Willie Parker’s under, but expect the Seahawks to open the game pushing the Steelers to run the ball because Roethlisberger has been so effective so far in the playoffs. Thus, Parker could get off to a strong start and make 61 yards on the ground.
Sunday, January 22, 2006
NFC Championship
6:30 FOX HD (5) Carolina (+4) 27 (1) Seattle 20.
Both of these teams have uncertainty at RB. Seattle’s Shaun Alexander suffered a concussion last week against the Redskins. He is expected to play against the Panthers. Carolina RB DeShuan Foster broke his ankle last week against the Bears; he joined fellow RB Stephen Davis on the IR list. Backup RB Nick Goings has almost 100 yards in Carolina’s two playoff games; he had 3 100-yard games for the Panthers last year during their 6-game winning streak when they surged into the NFC playoff picture after a 1-7 start. While he wouldn’t be the RB to carry the load over 16 games, Goings should be capable enough for the 2 games (at most) the Panthers have left this season. The Panthers are playing their 4th straight road game, but I think that they’re up to the task. The first 2 games were over by halftime (Atlanta, NY Giants), and they were able to play from ahead last week at Chicago. Seattle survived its divisional round game last week against Washington despite 3 fumbles and Alexander only gaining 9 yards before suffering a concussion. QB Matt Hasselback carried the offensive load, throwing for 1 TD and running for another. While the Seahawks contained Resdkins RB Clinton Portis (41 yards), they didn’t seem interested in covering WR Santana Moss or TE Chris Cooley. They better have a different plan for Panthers WR Steve Smith. He caught 12 passes for 218 yards and 2 TDs last week. He also carried the ball on end arounds a couple of times. If Carolina can get Smith 15 touches (receptions, punt returns, rushes, direct snaps, etc.), they should generate enough points to win the game.
Both of these teams have uncertainty at RB. Seattle’s Shaun Alexander suffered a concussion last week against the Redskins. He is expected to play against the Panthers. Carolina RB DeShuan Foster broke his ankle last week against the Bears; he joined fellow RB Stephen Davis on the IR list. Backup RB Nick Goings has almost 100 yards in Carolina’s two playoff games; he had 3 100-yard games for the Panthers last year during their 6-game winning streak when they surged into the NFC playoff picture after a 1-7 start. While he wouldn’t be the RB to carry the load over 16 games, Goings should be capable enough for the 2 games (at most) the Panthers have left this season. The Panthers are playing their 4th straight road game, but I think that they’re up to the task. The first 2 games were over by halftime (Atlanta, NY Giants), and they were able to play from ahead last week at Chicago. Seattle survived its divisional round game last week against Washington despite 3 fumbles and Alexander only gaining 9 yards before suffering a concussion. QB Matt Hasselback carried the offensive load, throwing for 1 TD and running for another. While the Seahawks contained Resdkins RB Clinton Portis (41 yards), they didn’t seem interested in covering WR Santana Moss or TE Chris Cooley. They better have a different plan for Panthers WR Steve Smith. He caught 12 passes for 218 yards and 2 TDs last week. He also carried the ball on end arounds a couple of times. If Carolina can get Smith 15 touches (receptions, punt returns, rushes, direct snaps, etc.), they should generate enough points to win the game.
AFC Championship
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-9
NFL/2-2/30-29-1
Invest/+0.9*/-.1*
The Seachickens less than impressive victory got the investment selections in the black for the season, but the Patriots didn’t score enough points to get their game over so I’m slightly in the red. I thought that Brady and company had 1 TD drive left in them when they took over inside their 20 at the 4-minute mark, but didn’t like seeing the deep throw so quickly. (It was intercepted by the Broncos triple-deep coverage.)
SUNDAY (All Times ET)
**3:00 CBS HD (2) Denver 23 (-3 ½) (6) Pittsburgh 16. *under 41.5
Three straight road victories is almost impossible for an NFL team to win. That has to be magnified in the playoffs. (My introduction for the Washington-Seattle game last week). Pittsburgh is on a real roll right now, their winning streak is at 7 games. They used a Patriots-style defensive strategy (maximize LBs, minimize DLs) to beat the Colts last week. Pittsburgh has balance on offense with Fast Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis at RB to punish a defense in different ways (speed, power). QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best QB that HC Bill Cowher has had during his tenure. The Steelers will go down the field through the air to get points on the board. Roethlisberger injured his hand or arm in the 2nd half of last week’s game, that may have factored into the Steelers running the ball all but 2 plays (about) after leading 21-3. The Broncos are getting great play from QB Jake Plummer. He made fewer mistakes than Tom Brady last week, even with the Patriots doing an outstanding job against the Broncos running game. Denver’s home field advantage is among the best in the NFL and the Steelers have to be road-weary at this point.
NCAA/0-0/11-9
NFL/2-2/30-29-1
Invest/+0.9*/-.1*
The Seachickens less than impressive victory got the investment selections in the black for the season, but the Patriots didn’t score enough points to get their game over so I’m slightly in the red. I thought that Brady and company had 1 TD drive left in them when they took over inside their 20 at the 4-minute mark, but didn’t like seeing the deep throw so quickly. (It was intercepted by the Broncos triple-deep coverage.)
SUNDAY (All Times ET)
**3:00 CBS HD (2) Denver 23 (-3 ½) (6) Pittsburgh 16. *under 41.5
Three straight road victories is almost impossible for an NFL team to win. That has to be magnified in the playoffs. (My introduction for the Washington-Seattle game last week). Pittsburgh is on a real roll right now, their winning streak is at 7 games. They used a Patriots-style defensive strategy (maximize LBs, minimize DLs) to beat the Colts last week. Pittsburgh has balance on offense with Fast Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis at RB to punish a defense in different ways (speed, power). QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best QB that HC Bill Cowher has had during his tenure. The Steelers will go down the field through the air to get points on the board. Roethlisberger injured his hand or arm in the 2nd half of last week’s game, that may have factored into the Steelers running the ball all but 2 plays (about) after leading 21-3. The Broncos are getting great play from QB Jake Plummer. He made fewer mistakes than Tom Brady last week, even with the Patriots doing an outstanding job against the Broncos running game. Denver’s home field advantage is among the best in the NFL and the Steelers have to be road-weary at this point.
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Divisional Round Reflections
Thoughts on last weekend’s games:
How do the Seahawks fumble the ball 3 times after practicing in the rain for 27 straight days while the Redskins don’t fumble once? I saw FOX’s Tony Siragusa show buckets full of water on the Redskins’ sidelines, but that couldn’t have been that effective.
I hope the Seachickens don’t plan on leaving S Michael Boulware alone on Panther WR Steve Smith the way they left him alone against Redskin WR Santana Moss last weekend. That strategy won’t work 2 weeks in a row.
Denver forced New England into some turnovers and took care of the football when they had it. They got a couple of breaks to get 2 TDs (Pass interference call against CB Asante Samuel and ruling CB Champ Bailey’s fumble out of bounds at the 1). The Broncos defense always had the full field to work with against the Patriots offense and usually was able to force a mistake before the Patriots reached the end zone.
The Colts didn’t play well against the Steelers’ rush, which often went small. Indy was very late to adjust to it. TE Dallas Clark didn’t move to the backfield too often. RB Edgerrin James didn’t get that many carries. QB Peyton Manning had happy feet from the early moments of the game. Perhaps the Colts should have played their regulars about a half in each of the final 2 regular season games.
The officiating in the 4th quarter had two horrible calls. The “no-call” on the false-start/encroachment should have been one or the other. And S Tory Polamalu’s interception shouldn’t have been overturned. I couldn’t help but think that the official in the booth notified that the Steelers should have been hit for the false start and thus were able to run another 4 to 5 minutes off the clock after the 4th down conversion instead of punting.
Colts K Mike Vanderjagt should be looking for a new employer soon. He might be one of the most accurate kickers of all time, but he has only one type of kick in the clutch. So far wide right that he wouldn’t have won the kicking job at Florida State! Vanderjagt has had two other attempts of similar significance in his career. 2000 Playoffs, wild card round at Miami. Overtime, 49 yards. Wide right by about 20 yards. 2004 opener, at New England. Final play of regulation, 48 yards. Wide right by about 30 yards.
So what was QB Peyton Manning thinking on his 3rd down throw to Reggie Wayne. The pass wasn’t close, the defender actually had a decent chance at an interception. Manning should have checked down to James to get the first down and get the idiot kicker a little closer. I understood the 2nd down pass to Wayne in the end zone. The Steelers’ blitz was picked up, and Wayne was one-on-one with no safety coming over. The play to the end zone was the right decision there. But the 3rd down throw should have been shorter, especially since the Colts still had 2 timeouts.
The Bears and Panthers played much better offensively than expected. Rex Grossman was great the last 30 minutes, but would he have started 3 for 15 (for 2 yards!) if he had played some in the regular season finale to get sharp?
My Joe Buck rant of the week – How come he and Troy Aikman didn’t notice that Chicago WR Justin Gage caught the ball with a knee on the ground in the 1st quarter and that the replay overturn would be as easy as the Polomalu overturn was difficult? Buck and Aikman (and their spotters) never considered the possibility until after the referee announced the overturn, and they were stunned!
How do the Seahawks fumble the ball 3 times after practicing in the rain for 27 straight days while the Redskins don’t fumble once? I saw FOX’s Tony Siragusa show buckets full of water on the Redskins’ sidelines, but that couldn’t have been that effective.
I hope the Seachickens don’t plan on leaving S Michael Boulware alone on Panther WR Steve Smith the way they left him alone against Redskin WR Santana Moss last weekend. That strategy won’t work 2 weeks in a row.
Denver forced New England into some turnovers and took care of the football when they had it. They got a couple of breaks to get 2 TDs (Pass interference call against CB Asante Samuel and ruling CB Champ Bailey’s fumble out of bounds at the 1). The Broncos defense always had the full field to work with against the Patriots offense and usually was able to force a mistake before the Patriots reached the end zone.
The Colts didn’t play well against the Steelers’ rush, which often went small. Indy was very late to adjust to it. TE Dallas Clark didn’t move to the backfield too often. RB Edgerrin James didn’t get that many carries. QB Peyton Manning had happy feet from the early moments of the game. Perhaps the Colts should have played their regulars about a half in each of the final 2 regular season games.
The officiating in the 4th quarter had two horrible calls. The “no-call” on the false-start/encroachment should have been one or the other. And S Tory Polamalu’s interception shouldn’t have been overturned. I couldn’t help but think that the official in the booth notified that the Steelers should have been hit for the false start and thus were able to run another 4 to 5 minutes off the clock after the 4th down conversion instead of punting.
Colts K Mike Vanderjagt should be looking for a new employer soon. He might be one of the most accurate kickers of all time, but he has only one type of kick in the clutch. So far wide right that he wouldn’t have won the kicking job at Florida State! Vanderjagt has had two other attempts of similar significance in his career. 2000 Playoffs, wild card round at Miami. Overtime, 49 yards. Wide right by about 20 yards. 2004 opener, at New England. Final play of regulation, 48 yards. Wide right by about 30 yards.
So what was QB Peyton Manning thinking on his 3rd down throw to Reggie Wayne. The pass wasn’t close, the defender actually had a decent chance at an interception. Manning should have checked down to James to get the first down and get the idiot kicker a little closer. I understood the 2nd down pass to Wayne in the end zone. The Steelers’ blitz was picked up, and Wayne was one-on-one with no safety coming over. The play to the end zone was the right decision there. But the 3rd down throw should have been shorter, especially since the Colts still had 2 timeouts.
The Bears and Panthers played much better offensively than expected. Rex Grossman was great the last 30 minutes, but would he have started 3 for 15 (for 2 yards!) if he had played some in the regular season finale to get sharp?
My Joe Buck rant of the week – How come he and Troy Aikman didn’t notice that Chicago WR Justin Gage caught the ball with a knee on the ground in the 1st quarter and that the replay overturn would be as easy as the Polomalu overturn was difficult? Buck and Aikman (and their spotters) never considered the possibility until after the referee announced the overturn, and they were stunned!
Saturday, January 14, 2006
Seahawks or Seachickens?
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-1/11-9
NFL/3-1/28-27-1
Invest/+2*/-1.0*
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**4:30 FOX HD (1) Seattle 27 (-9 ½) (6) Washington 10.
Three straight road victories is almost impossible for an NFL team to win. That has to be magnified in the playoffs. Seattle has balance on offense with NFL MVP Shaun Alexander at RB and Pro Bowler Matt Hasselback at QB. Seattle has earned its designation as Seachickens in recent years, but this year’s defense is playing markedly better.
8:00 CBS HD (4) New England 27 (+3) (2) Denver 20, *over 44.5
New England has won 10 straight postseason games with HC Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady. Many Patriots that didn’t dress for the October game will be on the field for this one (DL Seymour, RB Dillon – at what speed though?, LB Bruschi – see Dillon ?, CB Samuel). The number that struck me looking at the box score of the first game was that the Patriots did a pretty good job against RB Mike Anderson (15 carries, 57 yards). I think that New England will do a much better job against the Denver WRs and just can’t convince myself to pick Denver QB Jake Plummer to outduel Tom Brady.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD (1) Indianapolis 27 (-10) (6) Pittsburgh 16. The Colts flipped a switch at the start of the regular season, starting 13-0 after an 0-5 preseason. The offense didn’t score much during the first month of the season against some strong defenses (24 v. Baltimore, 10 v. Jacksonville, and 13 v. Cleveland), but the Colts won those games because their defense started the season at a high level. The Colts are just too fast for the Steelers on both sides of the ball and the Steelers may not be able to stay in the game while waiting for their running game to take its toll on the smaller Colts defense.
4:30 FOX HD (5) Carolina 16 (+2 ½) (2) Chicago 13. I think that this Bears team is better than the 2001 unit that had a similar regular season. The Bears did win 13-3 in the regular season game, sacking Panthers QB Jake Delhomme 8 times. It was one of 7 games that the Bears won with their offense scoring 1 TD (or less). What I didn’t like about the way the Bears finished the season against the Vikings was that starting QB Rex Grossman didn’t play. He has started 7 or 8 games in his 3-year career. He didn’t need the week off. He needed the game action to prepare for the playoffs. The key to this game will be avoiding turnovers in their own territory.
NCAA/0-1/11-9
NFL/3-1/28-27-1
Invest/+2*/-1.0*
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**4:30 FOX HD (1) Seattle 27 (-9 ½) (6) Washington 10.
Three straight road victories is almost impossible for an NFL team to win. That has to be magnified in the playoffs. Seattle has balance on offense with NFL MVP Shaun Alexander at RB and Pro Bowler Matt Hasselback at QB. Seattle has earned its designation as Seachickens in recent years, but this year’s defense is playing markedly better.
8:00 CBS HD (4) New England 27 (+3) (2) Denver 20, *over 44.5
New England has won 10 straight postseason games with HC Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady. Many Patriots that didn’t dress for the October game will be on the field for this one (DL Seymour, RB Dillon – at what speed though?, LB Bruschi – see Dillon ?, CB Samuel). The number that struck me looking at the box score of the first game was that the Patriots did a pretty good job against RB Mike Anderson (15 carries, 57 yards). I think that New England will do a much better job against the Denver WRs and just can’t convince myself to pick Denver QB Jake Plummer to outduel Tom Brady.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD (1) Indianapolis 27 (-10) (6) Pittsburgh 16. The Colts flipped a switch at the start of the regular season, starting 13-0 after an 0-5 preseason. The offense didn’t score much during the first month of the season against some strong defenses (24 v. Baltimore, 10 v. Jacksonville, and 13 v. Cleveland), but the Colts won those games because their defense started the season at a high level. The Colts are just too fast for the Steelers on both sides of the ball and the Steelers may not be able to stay in the game while waiting for their running game to take its toll on the smaller Colts defense.
4:30 FOX HD (5) Carolina 16 (+2 ½) (2) Chicago 13. I think that this Bears team is better than the 2001 unit that had a similar regular season. The Bears did win 13-3 in the regular season game, sacking Panthers QB Jake Delhomme 8 times. It was one of 7 games that the Bears won with their offense scoring 1 TD (or less). What I didn’t like about the way the Bears finished the season against the Vikings was that starting QB Rex Grossman didn’t play. He has started 7 or 8 games in his 3-year career. He didn’t need the week off. He needed the game action to prepare for the playoffs. The key to this game will be avoiding turnovers in their own territory.
Saturday, January 07, 2006
Wild Card Weekend
What an outstanding performance by Vince Young for Texas Wednesday night. But I have to ask, why didn’t USC close the running lane outside to the right? Did they watch any of the tapes from Young’s performance in the Rose Bowl last year? I think Pete Carroll did the right thing going for the first down on 4th and 2… his defense hadn’t stopped Young all night… why would that change? Texas only needed 1 timeout on their winning drive. I would have like to have seen some WRs on the field instead of the 2 TE look… Texas had 9 men in the box against RB LenDale White.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
4:30 ABC HD (3) Tampa Bay 23 (-2 ½) (6) Washington 20.
Because of turnover margin (+3), the Redskins won this game with an offense that produced 120 yards in 60 minutes.
**8:00 ABC HD (4) New England 27 (-8) (5) Jacksonville 13.
The Patriots played a solid game against the Jaguars, reducing their offense to one dimension. WR Jimmy Smith didn’t have a good night, and the Jaguars are still looking for their first postseason touchdown in New England.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD (5) Carolina 27 (+3) (4) N.Y. Giants 16. New York QB Eli Manning has had some impressive moments in his second season, but threw the most interceptions this side of Green Bay QB Brett Favre. Giants RB Tiki Barber will need to have the success that Cowboy RBs Marion Barber and Julius Jones enjoyed 2 weeks ago. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme has had his own interception issues and the Meadowlands can be a difficult place to throw the ball in January.
4:30 CBS HD (6) Pittsburgh 26 (-3) (3) Cincinnati 13. The Steelers won 4 straight to make the playoffs after losing successive games to Cincinnati and Indianapolis. The key to the winning streak (mostly against the lackluster NFC North) was the reliance on the running game with RB Fast Willie Parker outside the 10 and Jerome Bettis inside the 10. Cincinnati wrapped up the AFC North in Week 15, then lost to Buffalo (close) and Kansas City (rout) to close the regular season.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
4:30 ABC HD (3) Tampa Bay 23 (-2 ½) (6) Washington 20.
Because of turnover margin (+3), the Redskins won this game with an offense that produced 120 yards in 60 minutes.
**8:00 ABC HD (4) New England 27 (-8) (5) Jacksonville 13.
The Patriots played a solid game against the Jaguars, reducing their offense to one dimension. WR Jimmy Smith didn’t have a good night, and the Jaguars are still looking for their first postseason touchdown in New England.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD (5) Carolina 27 (+3) (4) N.Y. Giants 16. New York QB Eli Manning has had some impressive moments in his second season, but threw the most interceptions this side of Green Bay QB Brett Favre. Giants RB Tiki Barber will need to have the success that Cowboy RBs Marion Barber and Julius Jones enjoyed 2 weeks ago. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme has had his own interception issues and the Meadowlands can be a difficult place to throw the ball in January.
4:30 CBS HD (6) Pittsburgh 26 (-3) (3) Cincinnati 13. The Steelers won 4 straight to make the playoffs after losing successive games to Cincinnati and Indianapolis. The key to the winning streak (mostly against the lackluster NFC North) was the reliance on the running game with RB Fast Willie Parker outside the 10 and Jerome Bettis inside the 10. Cincinnati wrapped up the AFC North in Week 15, then lost to Buffalo (close) and Kansas City (rout) to close the regular season.
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Texas v. USC is finally here
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/1-0/25-26-1
Invest/+2*/-3.0*
WEDNESDAY
8:28 ABC HD #1 USC 27 (-8) #2 Texas 17. I don't like the 8:28 ET kickoff time. That made the 3 OT game between Penn St. and Florida St. end too late for me... on the WEST COAST! After a month of waiting and media attention, the Trojans aim for their 3rd straight national title (or portion of) against the Longhorns behind QB Matt Leinhart (2004 Heisman), RB Reggie Bush (2005 Heisman), RB LenDale White, and WR Dwayne Jarrett. Texas QB Vince Young is as dangerous as USC RB Reggie Bush because he touches the ball on every play while Bush is limited to taking handoffs, catching passes, or returning kicks. Texas’ defense was better statistically than USC’s, but there are more offensively challenged teams at the bottom of the Big 12 than the Pac 10. USC’s offense is so sophisticated (for the college level) that I can’t see Texas being able to shut it down for the whole game unless USC doesn’t set its alarm clock. Halftime won’t cut it for the Trojans as it did at Oregon and Arizona St.
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/1-0/25-26-1
Invest/+2*/-3.0*
WEDNESDAY
8:28 ABC HD #1 USC 27 (-8) #2 Texas 17. I don't like the 8:28 ET kickoff time. That made the 3 OT game between Penn St. and Florida St. end too late for me... on the WEST COAST! After a month of waiting and media attention, the Trojans aim for their 3rd straight national title (or portion of) against the Longhorns behind QB Matt Leinhart (2004 Heisman), RB Reggie Bush (2005 Heisman), RB LenDale White, and WR Dwayne Jarrett. Texas QB Vince Young is as dangerous as USC RB Reggie Bush because he touches the ball on every play while Bush is limited to taking handoffs, catching passes, or returning kicks. Texas’ defense was better statistically than USC’s, but there are more offensively challenged teams at the bottom of the Big 12 than the Pac 10. USC’s offense is so sophisticated (for the college level) that I can’t see Texas being able to shut it down for the whole game unless USC doesn’t set its alarm clock. Halftime won’t cut it for the Trojans as it did at Oregon and Arizona St.
Monday, December 26, 2005
Week 15 Observations (a bit late)
The Chargers brought the Colts’ undefeated season to an end. They contained RB Edgerrin James and forced QB Peyton Manning out of the pocket where he isn’t as efficient. But the win comes a week too late for the Chargers. They lose the tiebreaker to the Steelers for the 6-seed in the AFC and while they face two quality teams to close the season (at Kansas City, Denver), likely Wild Cards Pittsburgh (at Cleveland, Detroit) and Jacksonville (at Houston, Tennessee) face teams that don’t seem interested in winning.
Too bad FOX doesn’t have another play-by-play announcer to be its #1. Joe Buck just isn’t a football announcer. Sometime during the first half of the Cowboys’ 25-7 debacle in Washington, Buck suggested that Dallas pull QB Drew Bledsoe with next week’s game against Carolina in mind. Despite the fact that a QB throws a ball, the quarterback position is not similar to a starting pitcher in baseball. The QB is the offensive unit’s leader. Oriole SS Cal Ripken Jr. didn’t take innings off for seasons at a time in the mid-80s. At the end of the game, Buck and former Dallas QB Troy Aikman wondered out loud why HC Bill Parcells was still calling timeouts in a 35-7 defeat. The answer is quite simple to anyone who has watched a Parcells-coached team for any length of time over the past 23 years (18 as HC). Parcells was upset that his team didn’t come to play a game that it had to have in order to make the playoffs. His coaching method was to force them to endure the stink of their effort for as long as he could. Parcells isn’t a “nice” coach; he coaches through toughness, and his style isn’t that difficult to comprehend. Dallas was so bad on Sunday that I think Washington could have won the game had they dressed the San Francisco roster in Redskins uniforms.
Speaking of the 49ers, they are really bad. They only managed 5 offensive first downs over the course of the game on Sunday in Jacksonville. For the 7th time this season they didn’t score a touchdown. But their defense was solid, holding Jacksonville to 10 points. Bay Area football fans can take pride in their teams’ efforts Sunday: Jacksonville 10, San Francisco 9 and Cleveland 9, Oakland 7. Thankfully the Raiders didn’t sell out and Cincinnati’s rout of the Lions was televised there.
The Bears had a typical first half Sunday Night. 2 first downs, 4 3-and-outs, and about 60 yards … and a 6-3 lead over the Falcons. Former starting QB Rex Grossman replaced rookie Kyle Orton and led the Bears to 10 points in the 3rd quarter and the final 16-3 winning margin. The Bears could be dangerous in the playoffs; they are 3-0 against the strong teams in the NFC South.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/6-2/24-26-1
Invest/+2*/-5.0*
INVEST
**9:00 ABC HD New England 26 (-5 ½) N.Y. Jets 9. ABC’s Monday Night Football sure is going out with a bang! No beer will be sold in the stands during the game, but plenty will be consumed in the parking lot beforehand. The Patriots are on a roll right now, just in time for the playoffs. I don’t expect the Patriots to change their approach in the final 2 regular season games even though they can’t do much to improve their playoff seeding. HC Bill Belichick prefers to keep his teams in top form, and since they’ve only had key players like RB Corey Dillon, LB Tedy Bruschi, and DL Richard Seymour in the lineup for a couple of weeks, Belichick will want those guys to be sharp for the playoffs.
Too bad FOX doesn’t have another play-by-play announcer to be its #1. Joe Buck just isn’t a football announcer. Sometime during the first half of the Cowboys’ 25-7 debacle in Washington, Buck suggested that Dallas pull QB Drew Bledsoe with next week’s game against Carolina in mind. Despite the fact that a QB throws a ball, the quarterback position is not similar to a starting pitcher in baseball. The QB is the offensive unit’s leader. Oriole SS Cal Ripken Jr. didn’t take innings off for seasons at a time in the mid-80s. At the end of the game, Buck and former Dallas QB Troy Aikman wondered out loud why HC Bill Parcells was still calling timeouts in a 35-7 defeat. The answer is quite simple to anyone who has watched a Parcells-coached team for any length of time over the past 23 years (18 as HC). Parcells was upset that his team didn’t come to play a game that it had to have in order to make the playoffs. His coaching method was to force them to endure the stink of their effort for as long as he could. Parcells isn’t a “nice” coach; he coaches through toughness, and his style isn’t that difficult to comprehend. Dallas was so bad on Sunday that I think Washington could have won the game had they dressed the San Francisco roster in Redskins uniforms.
Speaking of the 49ers, they are really bad. They only managed 5 offensive first downs over the course of the game on Sunday in Jacksonville. For the 7th time this season they didn’t score a touchdown. But their defense was solid, holding Jacksonville to 10 points. Bay Area football fans can take pride in their teams’ efforts Sunday: Jacksonville 10, San Francisco 9 and Cleveland 9, Oakland 7. Thankfully the Raiders didn’t sell out and Cincinnati’s rout of the Lions was televised there.
The Bears had a typical first half Sunday Night. 2 first downs, 4 3-and-outs, and about 60 yards … and a 6-3 lead over the Falcons. Former starting QB Rex Grossman replaced rookie Kyle Orton and led the Bears to 10 points in the 3rd quarter and the final 16-3 winning margin. The Bears could be dangerous in the playoffs; they are 3-0 against the strong teams in the NFC South.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/6-2/24-26-1
Invest/+2*/-5.0*
INVEST
**9:00 ABC HD New England 26 (-5 ½) N.Y. Jets 9. ABC’s Monday Night Football sure is going out with a bang! No beer will be sold in the stands during the game, but plenty will be consumed in the parking lot beforehand. The Patriots are on a roll right now, just in time for the playoffs. I don’t expect the Patriots to change their approach in the final 2 regular season games even though they can’t do much to improve their playoff seeding. HC Bill Belichick prefers to keep his teams in top form, and since they’ve only had key players like RB Corey Dillon, LB Tedy Bruschi, and DL Richard Seymour in the lineup for a couple of weeks, Belichick will want those guys to be sharp for the playoffs.
Friday, December 16, 2005
Patriots Rounding into Form
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/0-1/18-24-1
Invest/-1.1*/-7.0*
INVEST
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**1:30 FOX HD New England 24 (-5) Tampa Bay 16. The Patriots are starting to get their key performers back. LB Tedy Bruschi has been back for a month. DL Richard Seymour returned last week. The RBs in Buffalo last week weren’t Patrick Pass, Heath Evans, or Mike Cloud, but regulars Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. QB Tom Brady had another strong game despite suffering a leg injury in the 1st half. Tampa Bay has rebounded to win 3 in a row after the San Francisco debacle, but young QBs rarely play well against Bill Belichick coached defenses.
5:00 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2 ½) Kansas City 24. The Giants got an important road win at Philly last week and return to the Meadowlands for their 9th game there this season. QB Eli Manning has not been as efficient the past few weeks, and needs to avoid interceptions. Kansas City is running the ball better with RB Larry Johnson subbing for an injured Priest Holmes. The Chiefs lost to Dallas last week and fell 2 games behins division leading Denver in the AFC West.
8:30 ESPN HD Denver 26 (-8 ½) Buffalo 10. Skip it unless you are a diehard. The Bills go back to Kelly Holcomb at QB with J.P. Losman sidelined with a head injury. RB Willis McGahee also has a head injury, but his is more like former Ealge WR T.O. than a medical one.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+7 ½) Indianapolis 27. The Chargers have their backs to the wall in this one. They have playoff aspirations but have lost a number of close games (Dallas, at Denver, Pittsburgh, at Philadelphia, Miami) this season. Three of those five losses came at home; the Chargers had 4th quarter leads against the Cowboys, Steelers, and Eagles. The Colts are attempting not to appear interested in pursuing an undefeated season, preferring to focus instead on staying healthy for the playoffs. I think they’ll be gunning for the 16-0, despite what WFAN’s Mike Francessa thinks.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3 ½) Minnesota 20. The Steelers mauled the Bears last week to stop a 3-game losing streak. They will continue their roll through the NFC North. RB Willie Parker should see the bulk of the carries on the artificial turf of the Metrodome. Minnesota has won 6 straight after losing QB Daunte Culpepper for the season to a knee injury. QB Brad Johnson has avoided mistakes during his second stint as Vikings QB. All victories count the same, but the Vikings’ six have come against Green Bay, Cleveland, N.Y. Giants, Detroit (twice), and St. Louis. Only the Giants are still in the playoff hunt, and the Vikings offense posted only a FG in that one, watching and punting while the defense and special teams scored 3 TDs (PR, KOR, Int Ret).
4:15 FOX HD Dallas 23 (+3) Washington 16. Thankfully this game swapped timeslots with the Eagles/Rams game. I don’t think that Washington WR Santana Moss will get behind S Roy Williams this time, but Dallas will have to tackle Moss on the flanker screen. The winner stays alive in the NFC East race while the loser probably only remains mathematically alive for a playoff berth.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Chicago 16 (-3) Atlanta 10. If Falcons QB Michael Vick wasn’t prone to turning the ball over, I would take the Falcons here. Atlanta should study the films of last week’s Bears-Steleers game. RB T. J. Duckett can run the plays that Jrome Bettis did and Warrick Dunn can run the ones that Willie Parker did. When QB Ben Roethlisbreger threw, Vick should run a bootleg. The Bears can be beaten if a team chooses not to risk the football, because the Bears won’t move the ball more than about 25 yards on an offensive possession. Rookie QB Kyle Orton understands the value of the punt in the NFL regular season. It’s a big reason why the Bears lead the NFC North.
9:00 ABC HD Green Bay 16 (+3) Baltimore 13. Skip it unless you are a diehard. Packer QB Brett Favre is struggling with interceptions but has a RB he can trust in Samkon Gado. The Ravens are playing Kyle Boller at QB, who is struggling after returning from a leg injury. ABC sure would like to switch this game out for one with playoff implications. NBC will have that option on Sunday nights next fall.
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/0-1/18-24-1
Invest/-1.1*/-7.0*
INVEST
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**1:30 FOX HD New England 24 (-5) Tampa Bay 16. The Patriots are starting to get their key performers back. LB Tedy Bruschi has been back for a month. DL Richard Seymour returned last week. The RBs in Buffalo last week weren’t Patrick Pass, Heath Evans, or Mike Cloud, but regulars Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. QB Tom Brady had another strong game despite suffering a leg injury in the 1st half. Tampa Bay has rebounded to win 3 in a row after the San Francisco debacle, but young QBs rarely play well against Bill Belichick coached defenses.
5:00 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2 ½) Kansas City 24. The Giants got an important road win at Philly last week and return to the Meadowlands for their 9th game there this season. QB Eli Manning has not been as efficient the past few weeks, and needs to avoid interceptions. Kansas City is running the ball better with RB Larry Johnson subbing for an injured Priest Holmes. The Chiefs lost to Dallas last week and fell 2 games behins division leading Denver in the AFC West.
8:30 ESPN HD Denver 26 (-8 ½) Buffalo 10. Skip it unless you are a diehard. The Bills go back to Kelly Holcomb at QB with J.P. Losman sidelined with a head injury. RB Willis McGahee also has a head injury, but his is more like former Ealge WR T.O. than a medical one.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+7 ½) Indianapolis 27. The Chargers have their backs to the wall in this one. They have playoff aspirations but have lost a number of close games (Dallas, at Denver, Pittsburgh, at Philadelphia, Miami) this season. Three of those five losses came at home; the Chargers had 4th quarter leads against the Cowboys, Steelers, and Eagles. The Colts are attempting not to appear interested in pursuing an undefeated season, preferring to focus instead on staying healthy for the playoffs. I think they’ll be gunning for the 16-0, despite what WFAN’s Mike Francessa thinks.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3 ½) Minnesota 20. The Steelers mauled the Bears last week to stop a 3-game losing streak. They will continue their roll through the NFC North. RB Willie Parker should see the bulk of the carries on the artificial turf of the Metrodome. Minnesota has won 6 straight after losing QB Daunte Culpepper for the season to a knee injury. QB Brad Johnson has avoided mistakes during his second stint as Vikings QB. All victories count the same, but the Vikings’ six have come against Green Bay, Cleveland, N.Y. Giants, Detroit (twice), and St. Louis. Only the Giants are still in the playoff hunt, and the Vikings offense posted only a FG in that one, watching and punting while the defense and special teams scored 3 TDs (PR, KOR, Int Ret).
4:15 FOX HD Dallas 23 (+3) Washington 16. Thankfully this game swapped timeslots with the Eagles/Rams game. I don’t think that Washington WR Santana Moss will get behind S Roy Williams this time, but Dallas will have to tackle Moss on the flanker screen. The winner stays alive in the NFC East race while the loser probably only remains mathematically alive for a playoff berth.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Chicago 16 (-3) Atlanta 10. If Falcons QB Michael Vick wasn’t prone to turning the ball over, I would take the Falcons here. Atlanta should study the films of last week’s Bears-Steleers game. RB T. J. Duckett can run the plays that Jrome Bettis did and Warrick Dunn can run the ones that Willie Parker did. When QB Ben Roethlisbreger threw, Vick should run a bootleg. The Bears can be beaten if a team chooses not to risk the football, because the Bears won’t move the ball more than about 25 yards on an offensive possession. Rookie QB Kyle Orton understands the value of the punt in the NFL regular season. It’s a big reason why the Bears lead the NFC North.
9:00 ABC HD Green Bay 16 (+3) Baltimore 13. Skip it unless you are a diehard. Packer QB Brett Favre is struggling with interceptions but has a RB he can trust in Samkon Gado. The Ravens are playing Kyle Boller at QB, who is struggling after returning from a leg injury. ABC sure would like to switch this game out for one with playoff implications. NBC will have that option on Sunday nights next fall.
Monday, December 12, 2005
VT - Stands for Vick's Team
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/2-2/11-8
NFL/1-5/18-23-1
Invest/-2.2*/-5.9*
INVEST
*9:00 ABC HD New Orleans (+10 ½) 20 Atlanta 26. What was ABC thinking scheduling the Saints for a MNF game after November 15th? They have been an entertaining team under HC Jim Haslett and QB Aaron Brooks, but they’ve only had one 10-win season in their 6 year tenure in New Orleans. Atlanta QB Michael Vick makes this game worth watching, and the Falcons need to win this one to stay in the playoff hunt in the NFC, where it’s looking like 10 wins might not be enough to earn a playoff berth. The Falcons will earn the win, but are too inconsistent to be giving any team besides San Francisco 10 ½ points.
The Colts are 13-0 and have wrapped up home field throughout the AFC playoffs. I think their toughest game will be this coming Sunday vs. the Chargers. San Diego sleepwalked through the second and third quarters and wound up losing to Miami. The Chargers are a desperate team and have the offensive balance and players to run with the Colts. Indy can take a huge step by knocking out the team they don’t want to play in the playoffs (after the Patriots, of course) in the regular season.
SF Bay Area NFL coverage on network television stinks. Two weeks ago we were subjected to San Francisco v. Tennessee early and Jacksonville v. Arizona late (the Raiders didn’t sell out as usual). I should have checked the local ratings for the late game. Outdoor Life probably outdrew it with an NHL game. The NFL should establish a new rule for two-market teams (SF, NY). If each franchise wins less than 6 games the previous season, they should have to play at the same time at least 4 times the next season. Yesterday it was a little better. Oakland v. N.Y. Jets early followed by San Francisco v. Seattle and Miami v. San Diego (non-HD) late. The doubleheader game (Mia-SD) was entertaining, but it wasn’t in HD, and Kansas City v. Dallas was on in the same time slot and wasn’t picked by the CBS affiliate in SF. I painfully tune into the NFL Network’s Sunday Drive telecast of a radio show for cut-ins to red zone coverage of other games. I’ve yet to hear any cut-ins to 49er or Raider games. Hmm.
NCAA/2-2/11-8
NFL/1-5/18-23-1
Invest/-2.2*/-5.9*
INVEST
*9:00 ABC HD New Orleans (+10 ½) 20 Atlanta 26. What was ABC thinking scheduling the Saints for a MNF game after November 15th? They have been an entertaining team under HC Jim Haslett and QB Aaron Brooks, but they’ve only had one 10-win season in their 6 year tenure in New Orleans. Atlanta QB Michael Vick makes this game worth watching, and the Falcons need to win this one to stay in the playoff hunt in the NFC, where it’s looking like 10 wins might not be enough to earn a playoff berth. The Falcons will earn the win, but are too inconsistent to be giving any team besides San Francisco 10 ½ points.
The Colts are 13-0 and have wrapped up home field throughout the AFC playoffs. I think their toughest game will be this coming Sunday vs. the Chargers. San Diego sleepwalked through the second and third quarters and wound up losing to Miami. The Chargers are a desperate team and have the offensive balance and players to run with the Colts. Indy can take a huge step by knocking out the team they don’t want to play in the playoffs (after the Patriots, of course) in the regular season.
SF Bay Area NFL coverage on network television stinks. Two weeks ago we were subjected to San Francisco v. Tennessee early and Jacksonville v. Arizona late (the Raiders didn’t sell out as usual). I should have checked the local ratings for the late game. Outdoor Life probably outdrew it with an NHL game. The NFL should establish a new rule for two-market teams (SF, NY). If each franchise wins less than 6 games the previous season, they should have to play at the same time at least 4 times the next season. Yesterday it was a little better. Oakland v. N.Y. Jets early followed by San Francisco v. Seattle and Miami v. San Diego (non-HD) late. The doubleheader game (Mia-SD) was entertaining, but it wasn’t in HD, and Kansas City v. Dallas was on in the same time slot and wasn’t picked by the CBS affiliate in SF. I painfully tune into the NFL Network’s Sunday Drive telecast of a radio show for cut-ins to red zone coverage of other games. I’ve yet to hear any cut-ins to 49er or Raider games. Hmm.
Friday, December 02, 2005
BCS Qualifiers
Notre Dame almost lost out on $15 million with its 4th quarter letdown against Stanford. I don’t know why HC Charlie Weis sent the injured PK (after 2 missed kicks, 1 XP and 1 FG) onto the field after the backup had made a FG. It almost cost the Irish big time.
Colts: 11-0 and looking unstoppable.
Vikings: 4 game winning streak after losing starting QB Daunte Culpepper for the season, the boat party, the Whizinator, HC Mike Tice selling Super Bowl tickets, original new ownership faked being a former NFL player on his resume. With a win over the Lions, the Vikings could actually be tied for the final wild-card spot in the NFC.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-2/9-6
NFL/3-3/17-18-1
Invest/+1*/-3.7*
INVEST
**#12 UCLA 30 (+24) #1 USC 45. The Trojans haven’t slowed good offenses recenctly… Fresno State put 42 on the board 2 weeks ago. Southern Cal should win, but I can’t see them covering, they’ll need to get into the 60’s to do that.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
1:00 ABC HD #2 Texas 58 (-27) Colorado 2. Why are they even playing this game? Iowa State tanked it in the 4th quarter at Kansas and gave Colorado its spot back.
2:30 CBS HD Navy 30 (-6 ½) Army 23. This series is going to move back to a field goal spread soon. Army HC Bobby Ross is restoring the program. Navy might be distracted after earning a 3rd straight bowl appearance, to the Pointsetta Bowl in San Diego.
4:30 ABC HD #1 UCLA 30 (+24) USC 45.
6:00 CBS HD #4 LSU 23 (-1) #13 Georgia 20. Because it’s on TV. LSU might be able to move into the title game if either Texas or USC falters earlier in the afternoon.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (-3) Dallas 23. Both teams suffered tough overtime losses last week and the winner takes sole possession of first place in the NFC East. NY QB Eli Manning is playing better than Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe right now.
1:00 FOX HD Atlanta 19 (+3) Carolina 16. Atlanta QB Mike Vick hasn’t been that consistent throwing the ball; Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is turning the ball over than the Panthers can allow. Incompletions are better than interceptions.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3) Cincinnati 16. The Steelers can effectively take a 2-game lead on the Bengals in the AFC North with a victory in this one. They will need to run the ball much better than they did on MNF against the Colts. RBs Bettis, Parker, and Staley were all active, but none was effective. QB Ben Roethlisberger looked rusty against the Colts but his presence is needed to give the Steelers offensive balance. The Bengals can win if they get a solid outing from QB Palmer, RB Johnson, and WR Johnson.
4:15 CBS HD Denver 24 (+3) Kansas City 20. The Chiefs have a great December home record in recent seasons and need this one to pull within 1 game of Denver in the AFC West. The Broncos get RB Tatum Bell back this week and have had 10 days to prepare for this one.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Oakland 24 (+11) San Diego 31. The Chargers will keep rolling towards the playoffs but the Raiders will cover the points as WR Randy Moss finds the end zone in a prime time game.
9:00 ABC HD Philadelphia 22 (+4) Seattle 17. The Seachickens haven’t proven their toughness yet and the Eagles aren’t ready to quit just yet.
Colts: 11-0 and looking unstoppable.
Vikings: 4 game winning streak after losing starting QB Daunte Culpepper for the season, the boat party, the Whizinator, HC Mike Tice selling Super Bowl tickets, original new ownership faked being a former NFL player on his resume. With a win over the Lions, the Vikings could actually be tied for the final wild-card spot in the NFC.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-2/9-6
NFL/3-3/17-18-1
Invest/+1*/-3.7*
INVEST
**#12 UCLA 30 (+24) #1 USC 45. The Trojans haven’t slowed good offenses recenctly… Fresno State put 42 on the board 2 weeks ago. Southern Cal should win, but I can’t see them covering, they’ll need to get into the 60’s to do that.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
1:00 ABC HD #2 Texas 58 (-27) Colorado 2. Why are they even playing this game? Iowa State tanked it in the 4th quarter at Kansas and gave Colorado its spot back.
2:30 CBS HD Navy 30 (-6 ½) Army 23. This series is going to move back to a field goal spread soon. Army HC Bobby Ross is restoring the program. Navy might be distracted after earning a 3rd straight bowl appearance, to the Pointsetta Bowl in San Diego.
4:30 ABC HD #1 UCLA 30 (+24) USC 45.
6:00 CBS HD #4 LSU 23 (-1) #13 Georgia 20. Because it’s on TV. LSU might be able to move into the title game if either Texas or USC falters earlier in the afternoon.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (-3) Dallas 23. Both teams suffered tough overtime losses last week and the winner takes sole possession of first place in the NFC East. NY QB Eli Manning is playing better than Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe right now.
1:00 FOX HD Atlanta 19 (+3) Carolina 16. Atlanta QB Mike Vick hasn’t been that consistent throwing the ball; Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is turning the ball over than the Panthers can allow. Incompletions are better than interceptions.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3) Cincinnati 16. The Steelers can effectively take a 2-game lead on the Bengals in the AFC North with a victory in this one. They will need to run the ball much better than they did on MNF against the Colts. RBs Bettis, Parker, and Staley were all active, but none was effective. QB Ben Roethlisberger looked rusty against the Colts but his presence is needed to give the Steelers offensive balance. The Bengals can win if they get a solid outing from QB Palmer, RB Johnson, and WR Johnson.
4:15 CBS HD Denver 24 (+3) Kansas City 20. The Chiefs have a great December home record in recent seasons and need this one to pull within 1 game of Denver in the AFC West. The Broncos get RB Tatum Bell back this week and have had 10 days to prepare for this one.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Oakland 24 (+11) San Diego 31. The Chargers will keep rolling towards the playoffs but the Raiders will cover the points as WR Randy Moss finds the end zone in a prime time game.
9:00 ABC HD Philadelphia 22 (+4) Seattle 17. The Seachickens haven’t proven their toughness yet and the Eagles aren’t ready to quit just yet.
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