Super Bowl XL, not “Blue Man Group”

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-9
NFL/0-2/30-31-1
Invest/-3.0*/-3.1*

6:30 ET ABC (6) Pittsburgh 31 (-3.5) (1) Seattle 24.

** over 47
** Total FG by both teams under 3.5
* Shaun Alexander under 92.5 yards rushing

When Seattle earned its Super Bowl berth, I thought, at least its an even-numbered Super Bowl, so the Steelers will pick to wear their black jerseys, and the Seahawks won’t be in their Blue Man Group uniforms. But Steelers HC Bill Cowher chose to ride the road success Pittsburgh has sustained and the Steelers will wear their white jerseys. The Steelers are aiming to be the first #6 seed to win the Super Bowl in the 16 seasons of 12 playoff teams. They defeated the top 3 seeds in the AFC playoffs. Closer inspection reveals that they aren’t a typical #6 seed. First is their 11-5 record instead of the average 9-7 mark. Second, they lost 2 games to directly attributable to horrible backup QB play by Tommy Maddox (who hasn’t been the same since suffering a neck injury at Tennessee in 2003). Change those 2 losses to victories, and the Steelers are 13-3 and the #2 seed. Third, they posted impressive victories during the regular season over San Diego and Chicago. Finally, they were 15-1 last season, and their only significant free agent loss was WR Plaxico Burress.
Pittsburgh has had success in the playoffs starting the game with a downfield passing attack. That has enabled them to take quick leads the last 2 weeks at Indianapolis and Denver. I expect Seattle to open defensively keying on that instead of stacking the line to stop the run. RB Willie Parker hasn’t had much success against good defensives this season, Jerome Bettis might get some carries outside of the red zone if Parker continues to struggle (including fumbling the ball).
Seattle followed its poor performance against Washington with an outstanding one against Carolina. QB Matt Hasselbeck has played 2 great games in the postseason. He has moved out of the pocket and spread the ball among his wide receivers and tight ends, making it more difficult for defenses to stop the Seahawks offense. RB Shaun Alexander had his first 100-yard game in the postseason last week. Of the Steelers 3 postseason opponents:
1. The Bengals eventually suffered after All-Pro QB Carson Palmer was knocked out of the game on the first play from scrimmage.
2. The Colts refused to play physically when the Steelers went with speed to counter the Colts’ spread offense.
3. The Broncos’ Jake Plaummer reverted to his historical tendencies in the AFC Championship game.
Of Pittsburgh’s 3 playoff opponents, the Seahawks offense is most like the Bengals’. Matt Hasselbeck isn’t as great downfield as Carson Palmer is (few are), but he has had strong seasons 3 years in a row. RB Shaun Alexander has been the most productive back in football over the past 5 seasons. He isn’t the power runner that Cincinnati’s Rudi Johnson is, but has more speed and better vision to find holes. Seattle doesn’t have any WR that is as explosive (in any form) as Chad Johnson is, but they do get solid production from Darrell Jackson, Bobby Engram, and Joe Jurevicious as a unit. Jackson and Engram missed significant parts of the season due to injury; but both are healthy now, and don’t have as much wear on them because of the time that they missed.
I expect the Steelers to win the game, but they need to play from ahead. If Seattle gets the lead and forces Pittsburgh to be a one-dimensional passing offense, then the result will be like the 38-31 game that the Bengals won at Heinz Field in December.
Propositons: Even though this game is in a dome, teams don’t tend to kick field goals in Super Bowls. Last week’s game against a Carolina defense that was on the field for the whole game was the only time that Alexander has even gotten close to 90 yards rushing in a playoff game. I’d consider Willie Parker’s under, but expect the Seahawks to open the game pushing the Steelers to run the ball because Roethlisberger has been so effective so far in the playoffs. Thus, Parker could get off to a strong start and make 61 yards on the ground.