The Colts

Did Tony Dungy (and the rest of the Colts) look how the Patriots approached the December meaningless games (once home-field advantage was clinched)? Did they remember what happened in 2005 when they backed off? (Lost 21-18 at home to Pittsburgh in first playoff game) Did they remember what happened last year when they had to play hard through ALL 16 games of the regular season to get the #3 seed so they could host the AFC Championship Game if New England was the opponent? (um, defeated NE at home, won Super Bowl).

Apparently not. The Colts lost to a Charger team the struggled to beat 1-dimensional Tennessee at home the week before. The Chargers best 3 offensive players were hobbled. TE Antonio Gates played the whole game with a broken toe. RB LaDanian Tomlinson missed the last 2+ quarters. QB Philip Rivers missed the 4th quarter (though he was still competing against the fans in the 4th).

Peyton Manning led the Colts quickly into the Red Zone after the Chargers took the lead in the 4th quarter. On the 3rd down play, he threw to the wrong guy though. He tried to hit Joseph Addai at the 7 - but Addai was covered. TE Dallas Clark was uncovered at the goal line on the left side - would have bean an easy TD. (A great feature of HD DVR is being able to watch live action a second time and focus on what you want to, not being limited to what the announcers focus on - they never showed Clark uncovered near the goal line). I think the Colts saw it - Clark ran the same pattern on 4th down and was open again - but Charger DL Shawne Merriman was in the backfield so quickly that Manning's only option was to his right - where Clark AND WR Reggie Wayne weren't.

I don't think Dungy's coming back - otherwise the Colts wouldn't have named his successor publicly. I've read sections of his book - he truly seems to be a great man, but if he stays, for the Colts' sake, I hope he watches how Bill Belichick and the Patriots responded to losing the 21-3 lead to the Colts last year. That is the #1 reason why the Patriots attempted to score TDs on EVERY possession. The worst the Patriots could achieve with that result - Overtime. The Colts were Out-Colted by the Patriots this season even though they didn't face them in the playoffs. Look how much like Manning Brady looks now, compared to 2003 & 2004.

BCS Reflections

It's a little late, but here are my thoughts:

Illinois-USC Rose Bowl - Why was 3-loss Illinois in this game? Why was Erin Andrews working for the RADIO team and not the TV team? USC didn't deserve serious consideration for the poll championship - you can't hide that 24-23 home loss to Stanford no matter how hard you try?

Hawaii-Georgia Sugar Bowl - We saw that Hawaii didn't belong in the chatter for poll championship. Being completely overwhelmed by Georgia might have been the final straw for HC June Jones - though I'm not sure he (or anyone else) can rebuild SMU (though he will have more money) since it's not in a BCS conference (it was in the SWC in the old days, now it's in mid-major C-USA). Georgia - if they had defeated Tennessee, they would have had their chance against LSU in the SEC Championship Game. The format for reaching the BCS Championship is clear - win them all or you need help. Georgia lost a couple of times and needed too much help.

Kansas-Virginia Tech Orange Bowl - Kansas rebounded well from their loss to Missouri to show they could compete (they didn't play Texas or Oklahoma in the Big 12 regular season or any good non-conference teams) against a quality opponent.

Oklahoma-West Virginia Fiesta Bowl - the next time that Oklahoma makes the BCS, they should be forced to play the Big 10 Champion. When was the last time that this team played well in a BCS Game? I think the answer is 2000.

LSU-Ohio St. Championship - the Tigers had a home field, speed, and talent advantage and decisively beat the Buckeyes. Ohio St. should start a BCS series w/ Oklahoma in the bowl that historically averages the lowest ratings. Ohio St. was fortunate enough to face Charlie Weis' Notre Dame squad a couple of years back, or else its recent BCS performance would be level with Oklahoma's. LSU - congrats to them for surviving the season the best and winning the championship.

Mr. Clinton in Iowa

I was happy to see the drive-by media have to point out that Slick Willie was at it again last week saying he was against Iraq from the beginning even though he was for the action in Iraq from the beginning (in Time Magazine). With the Internet and Fox News around this time, he won't be able to tell a new story every 15 minutes when the wind changes directions and not have it noticed.

As for Hillary, the best she can do is pick on Obama's elementary school writings? Obama has Oprah out stomping for him, Hillary has Streisand?

BCS Thoughts

I think LSU v. Ohio State is the right choice for the “Championship” Game. I’d use elimination-type logic for the other Power Conference Champions and Hawaii.
Oklahoma (11-2) – 1 of their losses came with their backup QB in the lineup. I just don’t know how their defense could contain Missouri’s spread, but not Texas Tech’s. Their loss to Texas Tech was a worse loss in my mind than LSU’s loss to Arkansas.
Georgia (10-2) – They needed to be in the SEC Title game. Tennessee only had 1 more loss during the regular season (to Cal), so Tennessee was the right choice to face LSU (based on 35-14 victory over Georgia, H2H tiebreaker).
Missouri (11-2) – they lost twice to Oklahoma, but should have been in the BCS over Kansas (who played a non-conference schedule that would have made longtime K-State HC Bill Snyder jealous) since they beat them H2H 2 weeks ago.
USC (10-2) – they lost to Stanford at home. It’s all on HC Pete Caroll on this one. He passed up a FG in the red zone in the first half and didn’t get points because the clock ran out. His defense allowed two length of the field drives in the second half to a QB making his first start. He left QB John David Booty in the game w/ a broken hand, 4 interceptions were the result. A missed extra-point was the difference in the 24-23 loss.
Virginia Tech (11-2) – They lost to LSU 48-7.
Hawaii (12-0) – Too many final-possession victories against inferior competition. For a WAC or MWC team to make it, they have to DOMINATE their conference and get lucky and play a Power Conference team that turns out to be 10-2 or better (they didn’t even have one on their schedule this year).
West Virginia (10-2) – They had 0 points on the board (25 minutes into the game) when QB Pat White was injured against Pitt. They never brought an 8th man into the box against a one-dimensional Pitt offense and didn’t win the line of scrimmage in the second half. And how does RB Steve Slaton only get 9 carries in a game that the outcome is in doubt?

LSU’s (11-2) losses both came in triple overtime, and their win over Tennessee last weekend came with their backup QB (due to injury). Their blemishes aren’t as bad as the other options, so they’re in the big game. I’m not that impressed with Ohio State (11-1), but they are the ONLY Power Conference team with just 1 loss, so they are in the Championship Game. It’s the only way they could get there, since their non-conference schedule included 3 Ohio schools and Washington (which hasn’t been to a bowl game (i.e. .500) in 5 seasons since the Rick Neuheisel NCAA March Madness Pool Controversy.

NFL Week 9

4:15 ET CBS New England 38 (-5.5) Indianapolis 27. The Patriots have bulldozed through the first half of the season, outscoring their opponents 331-127. Tom Brady already has a CAREER best 30 touchdown passes. The Patriots have lost 3 straight to the Colts, including last year's AFC Championship game. The teams have switched roles in the media, with the Patriots exorbiant winning margins generating the attention that the Colts' offense previously has. The Colts have suffered more personnel losses than the Patriots (LT Tarik Glenn, LB Cato June, both starting corners) and might also be without WR Marvin Harrison (knee). The Colts have become more physical on offense since Peyton Manning's record year of 2004. They'll need to dominate the Patriots the way that they did in the 2nd half of last year's AFC Championship Game. The Pats defense couldn't get off the field in the 2nd half (except one punt) and the 21-6 halftime lead vanished. LB Junior Seau is in the lineup to alternate w/ Tedy Brushci unlike last year's playoff game. DL Richard Seymour is making his first appearance of the season this week. New England began preparing for this game the day the schedule came out. The Patriots have been putting up the huge numbers specifically for this game; they won't attempt to cruise towards a win, and they grab the inside track to the home field advantage for the AFC Playoffs.

Navy-Notre Dame

I had reserve duty today so I had to watch it on tape delay before dinner. I must admit that I was angry that Notre Dame HC Charlie Weis kept going for 4th downs. When Belichick is doing it against the Colts, its because his team hasn't been as skilled offensively as the Colts'. Weis' team is very weak by Notre Dame standards, but it still has a significant talent advantage on both sides of the football compared to Navy. Maybe Weis felt that was reason enough to keep going for it on 4th down. He expressed concern about the strength of the Navy option offense, but the best weapon against an option offense is a LEAD. The Navy option offense is very efficient and time hogging, but its not without weakness. In fact, the Mids only converted 3 of their 6 drives outside of the end-of-half 2-minute drill (when the option is EXTREMELY LIMITED) into TDs. So, when Weis kept passing up FG's, I was in shock. A fake FG on 4th and 15 up 7-0 in the 1st quarter? Not attempting a 41-yard FG in the final minute to win in regulation? Their kicker hasn't had much work this season (4 for 7 on FGs, 7 for 8 on XPs), but he should have tried A FG today. Weis' arrogance probably cost his team its second win.

The best stat I heard to put Kansas' win against Nebraska in perspective: The Jayhawks scored 67 points in 10 meetings in the 1980's... and 76 in its 2007 win. I hope that Nebraska HC Bill Callahan is polishing his resume. I don't think that he'll be much longer for Nebraska with Tom Osborne back onboard.

Hillary and Illegals

She wants NY to give them driver's licenses.. would she have said that if she ACTUALLY was from NY and felt some attachment to the state? Does she know that several of the September 11th hijackers HAD DRIVERS LICENSES? Amazingly, she is proving that a candidate can be more circular than Sen. John Kerry, and we haven't even reached the first primary. SERENITY NOW!

Patriots Running Up the Score?

Not in my opinion. No, this is HC Bill Belichick preparing his team for this week’s game against the Colts. Remember that the Patriots had a 21-3 lead in last season’s AFC Championship game. I don’t think that the Patriots relaxed, but I think the Patriots are approaching every drive as if the score were 7-7. Belichick believes it will take a full 60-minute effort to break the 3-game losing streak his Patriots have against the Colts. He also intends on playing Spurrier style – no kicks on 4th down. As QB Tom Brady said last week, when you punt the ball to the Colts, it usually results in 7 points for them. The Patriots have gone for an awful lot of 4th downs (even in FG range) against the Colts in recent years. Belichick is not planning on punting unless it is 4th and 10 or more, and even then he might call a deep route for WR Randy Moss and see what happens.

The Patriots have been more impressive so far, and they have needed to be. Half of their division should be playing football on Saturday (the Bills are playing respectable football). The Bills, Jets, and Dolphins have combined for 4 victories between them. And they have played 3 games amongst themselves!

More on A-Rod

I just don’t get it. No player has eclipsed the average annual salary of $25.2 million he received from Texas after the 2000 season. Rangers Owner Tom Hicks increased the highest average salary by 25% to get A-Rod. In contrast, the Red Sox signed Manny Ramirez that winter for an average annual salary of $20 million. The Red Sox have tried to find a taker for that contract for years without success, even going so far as to place Ramirez on waivers (winter 2003), so that the team getting Ramirez wouldn’t have to trade ANY players to have him on their roster. And even the Yankees didn’t go for it!

He’s not sure who the manager, closer, catcher are going to be. Well, I’ll go out on a limb. The Yankees won’t turn into the Pirates, Marlins, or Nationals (from a talent or payroll perspective) during the length of A-Rod’s new contract, check that, CAREER. And I doubt that he’ll excitedly join Joe Torre with the Dodgers. Torre batted A-Rod 8th in game 4 against the Tigers last season. That’s a real vote of confidence.

So how is A-Rod going to get a raise? The 2 highest bidders (Yankees and Red Sox) won’t be involved. I don’t think that he will. I think that the Giants and Angels will battle it out, but the Giants are already on the hook to Barry Zito for over $100 million and the Angels have Bartolo Colon eating $10 million worth of food each season for a couple more seasons (I think). I can’t see either of them going to $25 million annually, let alone past it. Each team has experienced post-season success and understands how that success is achieved (expertise that wasn’t present in the Rangers organization) and won’t commit too many resources to a single player that would significantly reduce the chances for postseason success.

A-Rod Opts Out

It was pretty lame that A-Rod & Scott Boras announced in during Game 4 of the World Series. But then, A-Rod wouldn't know about Game 4 of the World Series, let alone Games 5, 6, or 7. I'm hoping that the Yankees stand up to their position of not negotiating with him since he has opted out of his contract (the remaining 3 years would have been subsidized $21 million by Texas). I don't think that the Red Sox organization would pursue A-Rod, they seemed to start their run past the Yankees when C Jason Varitek picked a fight w/ A-Rod in late July of 2004. And when the Sox almost acquired A-Rod, part of the deal was that A-Rod was going to give back part of his salary, which the MLBPA squashed; and let to A-Rod's landing in New York. I think that A-Rod needs to get back to the West Coast where there isn't the rabid fan base on a day-in, day-out basis.

The Colts and Patriots meet next Sunday, and both are undefeated. It's CBS' 4:15 doubleheader game, but I'll have to wait for the replay on the NFL network since the Raiders have been scheduled for a home game in that time slot (and I'm not going to shell out $240 for the full season Sunday Ticket). I would buy a single-week ticket to see this game live in HD if it was available. Too bad they won't move that game up (against the Texans) to the 10:00 (PT) slot. It's not like the Raider game will sell out, even if the left the A's tarps on the upper deck!

ESPN Thursday Night Football

It is Game 2 of the World Series tomorrow night (8:XX ET FOX HD), but #2 Boston College travels to #8 Virginia Tech in a key BCS/ACC game (7:45 ET ESPN HD). While the Rockies won 21 of 22 to reach the World Series, it must be remembered that ALL of those games came against National League opponents. Their DH was batting 9TH last night! Too bad they still don't have Mike Hampton. It's too bad that the ALCS lasted 7 games and the NLCS only 4. I'm rooting for the fewest # of games for Joe Buck's voice to reach my ears. Can FOX try to get Jon Miller away from ESPN Radio? Please. For the fans!!!!

All that I remember from last year's Thursday Game in Chestnut Hill was ESPN's Erin Andrews gushing over a walk-on kicker for BC. He made 2 XPs and 2 FGs in a 22-3 BC win. The Eagles haven't played a tough team yet, and the Hokies wish they hadn't (a 48-7 loss to LSU). Virginia Tech 23 (-3) Boston College 16. Blacksburg is a tough place to get a road win, and BC isn't used to its lofty ranking and the pressure that comes with it.

The Yanks offered Manager Joe Torre a contract that he had to decline. It was for significantly less dollars, and at only 1 year in length, it wouldn’t give Torre the authority that he should have as the leader of the team. SI’s Tom Verducci and Yahoo’s Dan Wetzel have great pieces on it. Paying someone not to perform (i.e. if they chose to fire Torre at a later date) for the organization has never been something that’s gotten in George Steinbrenner’s way before. And Mike and the Mad Dog have a good interview with Torre, but you have listen to about 60 seconds of sponsorhips before they start chatting.

Additionally, what does this hold for A-Rod? The Yanks wanted 25% of Torre’s pay to come from postseason performance, and looking at A-Rod’s numbers, he’d be leaving a lot of money on the table if he had to play under the same arrangement. While A-Rod’s agent, Scott Boras, thinks he’s worth $30 Million annually, right now the Yanks are only on the hook for about $18 Million annually for the next 3 seasons (Texas pays the balance of A-Rod’s salary). Why would the Yanks pay 40% MORE for a player hitting .159 with 1 HR and 1 RBI the last 3 seasons in the playoffs (team record 4-9)? Especially when the Yankees haven’t been winning postseason series with Rotisserie Baseball Players (i.e. Sheffield, Giambi) in their lineup. They were much more successful when their lineups featured FUNDAMENTAL baseball players like 1B Tino Martinez, 3B Scott Brosius, and OF’s Paul O’Neill and Bernie Williams.

Then let’s look at stability. Torre managed 12 seasons. In the 12 seasons prior to Torre (1984-1995), the Yankees had a bunch of managers:
92-95: Buck Showalter
90-91: Stump Merrill
89-90: Bucky Dent
89: Dallas Green
88 Billy Martin
86-88: Lou Pinella
85: Billy Martin
84-85: Yogi Berra
And while the Yankees weren’t making the playoffs and winning any World Series titles in that period, they were more stable managerially than they were in the 70’s and early 80’s when they were.

The Yankees

Why is Joe Torre on the hot seat? Did he choose SP Carl Pavano? He's 5-6, 4.77 ERA in 19 starts in 3 YEARS! No postseason appearances. Or SP Jaret Wright? He was 16-12 in 2 seasons, but had a 4.99 ERA. Playoffs, he lasted less than 3 innings and took the loss in his only start. Or RP Kyle Farnsworth? He's 5-7, 6 saves w/ a 4.57 ERA in his two seasons in pinstripes. At least Farnsworth has contributed 3 scoreless innings in the last 2 postseasons. THOSE 3 acquisitions since the collapse against the Red Sox in 2004 are a big reason why the Yankees haven't played an ALCS game since then.

Sandy Berger back with the Clintons

Why is this criminal working for a campaign? This disgust me to no end. The man should be in JAIL for stealing CLASSIFIED documents from the National Archives during his PREPARATIONS for testimony for the 9/11 COMMISSION. He doesn't go to jail, but Scooter Libby does? And now he gets a job with Hillary's campaign? If they feel the need to keep him on the payroll, maybe they could have him work at the Presidential Library in Arkansas and screen potential partners for Mr Clinton.


Berger

There She Goes Again

First it was Iraq. How it’s retirement plans. Senator Clinton is making Senator Kerry look like a politician with a consistent stance on issues.

I thought Senator Clinton wasn’t for privatizing Social Security. But now she wants the Federal Government to “match” some worker’s 401k savings, up to $1,000 a year (Income levels 60K and less get the full tax CREDIT, it phases out at 100K). But wait, wasn’t the Democrat’s PRIMARY reasoning for NOT privatizing A PORTION of Social Security the premise that these lower-income investors weren’t intelligent enough to manage their own money? Why is she NOW in favor of letting all of these morons (myself included) manage our own retirement finances?

And then I read in the Washington Post that she doesn't think Social Security is in trouble.... um, there used to be a payer/payee ratio of 16:1, it's now less than 3:1 and it's getting smaller. Oh yeah, that's right. We can get those 12 million illegals on the books and let al-Qeada, Hamas, etc. right through our porous borders and do who knows what harm to our nation. SERENITY NOW!

WSJ 401k

Wash Post

Marion Jones and BALCO

So Marion Jones came clean over her use of the CLEAR, how about Mr. Barry Bonds? She'll be doing some jail time, losing her gold medals, etc. Does a similar fate await Bonds? I doubt it, he is a little older, wiser, and substantially richer. I may have to hope it comes only in the form of no contract offers for 2008. He can still produce for a fantasy team, but his salary takes up too much of the payroll (for all of the teams outside of NY and BOS) for a team to make the playoffs. I didn't see too many Giants games on TV after he passed Aaron's mark, but I wonder how many sold seats were empty seats in August and September. I hope that the management teams considering Bonds for their squads next season recognize that he was ALL OUT once the Giants communicated that they weren't going to bring him back for 2008. Very professional, Mr. Bonds. How long is Greg Anderson going to sit in the jailhouse for you?

MLB Division Series

I wasn't too sure that I would like TBS covering the baseball playoffs. But they had the courage to have the Yankees play their first Division Series Game at a time other than 8 PM ET when they slotted the Yankees for the 4:30 start time yesterday and placed the Red Sox and Angels in the 8 PM ET slot. The Yanks had always been in the prime time slot, even when they were facing the Twins, a team with revenues so low that MLB wanted it to cease operations a few years ago.

What I like - Dan Orsillo and Ted Robinson as play-by-play guys. What I don't, Dick Stockton. Has he announced a baseball game since Carlton Fisk's Foul Pole Homerun? He certainly hasn't been involved in any national productions in over 20 years and didn't seem to know the rosters of the Cubs and Diamondbacks during the Arizona games. I understand the logic in not having Braves announcers do the playoff games, but then why would Orsillo (Red Sox) and Robinson (Mets) be ok? And the Braves won't be on TBS anymore, so there isn't a conflict of interest.

Being on the west coast, I also like the 3-6-10 start times for the games. 10 is too late for the east coast fan to follow; it works in basketball because the playoffs are separated by geographic region when the 10 ET slot is used. Whether it works long term in baseball, I'm not sure (I remember the uproar in BOS a few years back when the Sox had 10 pm starts against the A's, so this isn't completely new). I haven't had time to digest the additional off-days, but generally speaking, I'm not for them. They de-value the importance of the 162-game regular season by shrinking the size of a pitching staff that a playoff team has to use.

Nevada!

I've moved to Nevada to pursue a new work opportunity, loving the lack of STATE INCOME TAX and the sight of Heavenly Ski Area from the workplace. Being 15 minutes from the slopes should make it easier to maximize quality skiing this winter. Speaking of winter, we had some snow stick on the mountains above 6500 feet. The previous accumulations haven't stayed on the ground, but it's a good start to the winter season from a skier's perspective.

If time permits after getting a house picked out and moving in, I hope to be able to resume analysis of the football season and generate some supplemental income.

Hillary's Campaign - Why We are Screwed

She proposed a 1 BILLION dollar bailout of a 1 TRILLION dollar problem in the mortgage industry. Does she or anyone on her staff understand that a BILLION is a THOUSANDTH of a TRILLION????? So her plan will delay an inevitable foreclosure for 1/1000 homeowners, er, flippers in trouble. Maybe that can be the next Reality TV craze. But what got more analysis in the mainstream press, her attire or her bad financial idea? Her attire! Two days were spent on the cleavage issue, yet no one had the nerve to question her in detail on her poor bailout idea.

Bonds' 756

I was pleased to see that Sports Illustrated ran a poll on their website asking what readers wanted to see on the cover, Bonds or the NCAA Football preview. It was overwhelming in favor of football, and even in the SF Bay Area football ran on the cover. To new Stanford HC Jim Harbaugh's chagrin, it was the USC Football team. Bonds had a small spot on the cover, but I'm glad that SI didn't run a local cover special for its Bay Area readers.