The Vikings Debacle

Head Coach Brad Childress was Monday’s casualty. It is logical based on the track that he led the team down. It was understandable that bringing back Brett Favre to play QB was Plan A. But Favre needed to be in training camp with the rest of the team. Childress even should have had some leverage to get Favre into training camp. Since the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb before the draft, the Vikings would have been a trade target for the Eagles since Favre’s return was uncertain at that point. Not unlikely, but also not certain. Childress could have pushed Favre into declaring his intent to return in 2010 in April by selling to Favre that if he couldn’t commit, Childress owed it to the rest of the team to acquire McNabb once that opportunity arose. Side effects of Favre not reporting until mid-August: RB Adrian Peterson skipped some off-season activities, WR Percy Harvin hasn’t practiced much more than Favre has. Add in WR Sidney Rice’s late training camp injury requiring surgery and it isn’t difficult to see the Vikings less efficient on offense in 2010 than 2009.
The turnovers are the killer. They have committed multiple turnovers in all but 2 games. They have AVERAGED -2 in net turnovers per game, near the bottom of the league. Favre is responsible for the bulk of the turnovers between interceptions and fumbles. One can’t help but wonder how many turnovers are a result of insufficient preparation? A couple of weeks of additional practice or series in preseason games might have Favre and his receivers in sync. Peterson has not been a turnover problem this year – unfortunately he had a poor game against the Saints last January.
The net -2 means that the defense isn’t causing the turnovers. And that can be explained by the difference in line play. The Vikings’ line has had difficulty forming a pocket for Favre (he should understand that taking a sack is better than throwing an interception) while its defensive line has not collapsed the pocket on many quarterbacks. While the Vikings have been behind in many games, only the Green Bay game was a wide-enough spread that the Packers wouldn’t need to run a balanced run-pass offense.
Childress has made some questionable tactical decisions this season. He has chosen to go for a number of 4th down and short plays with an inefficient offense instead of attempting FGs. With a team that is not scoring many points, FG’s are a good choice. Even more so when the offense continually fails to convert the 4th downs into 1st downs (or TDs when from the 1 yard line).
The Randy Moss escapade was another questionable decision. Why trade a valuable 3rd round pick in next year’s draft for a player you may only have for 13 games? The Patriots traded a 6th round pick to Oakland to acquire Moss and the Patriots were interested in trading him for the same reason Oakland was in 2007. Childress’ offer should have been for a 7th round pick in the 2011 draft. Childress probably needed to cut Moss loose after the New England game combined with other events that occurred that week, but making that cut resulted in the rope around his neck getting very tight.

Saints - Vikings

The painful end of regulation for the Vikings.

1st & 10, 1:06 to play. Ran into a 9-man front out of 2WR, 2TE, 1RB set. Should have been audible to a pass.

2nd & 10, :25 to play at snap. Ran into a 7-man front out of 1WR, 2TE, 2 RB set. Should have had a decent chance of gaining yards but didn't.

3rd & 15, :19 to go after the penalty. The play has gotten OK reviews, but WR Sidney Rice was the only guy who could have been considered open on the play. And on his 40-year old legs, I don't know that Favre would have gained even the 5 yards back that Joe Buck and Troy Aikman thought. None of the 3 receivers on the roll side of the field were open. I don't fault Favre for throwing to Rice, you have to give the K the best chance you can (but he can't allow an INT to occur unless the WR tips the ball).

Bottom Line - If you only get to the 33 due to time and have to kick from there, that's one thing. But you don't pull the plug on the offense there (especially when (a) you are on the road, and (b) the other team has just burned its last time out). When you get inside the 15, you can focus on the kick. But not until then.

I expect that Favre will play in 2009 - though I don't expect any decision one way or the other until training camp opens. He should report when the rest of the veterans do, but I wouldn't consider him done until he isn't in camp for the 2nd preseason game. Either way they should look at a QB in the draft. Neither Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels is a guy that a team will have 100% confidence.

Super Bowl Reflections

I was bored by the first 3 quarters - disappointed that the Patriots couldn't figure out how to protect Tom Brady or run the football. The Giants' pass rush was outstanding, but Brady and the Patriots didn't go to hot reads or max protect blocking. They did throw a bunch of hitches and WR screens, but couldn't sustain drives with those plays. The multi-TE set that was successful running the football against San Diego didn't work against the Giants. They did have a solid drive in the 4th to take the lead - the problem was that they geared their strategy all season to score, score, and score some more. Their defense is old by NFL standards - it broke on the Giant's final drive (similar to last year vs. Indy). Harrison and Samuel dropped interceptable passes. The DL couldn't wrap up QB Eli Manning on the huge play to David Tyree - what a CATCH! WR Steve Smith got out of bounds converting a 3rd and 11 for a first down the play before the TD to Burress. The Giants were in a hurry-up mode, but never had to truly rush things. Something that neither FOX's Joe Buck or Troy Aikman noticed on the Patriots' last ditch effort: the 3rd down pass to Moss traveled 65 yards in the air ACROSS the field. Unfortunately for the Pats, the Giants secondary stayed home and didn't roll right w/ Brady. That was the only play that the Pats moved Brady the WHOLE game - surprising since his pocket was non-existent the whole game. I was disappointed that Belichick left before the Giants took the kneeldown to end the game. He should have shown the respect to allow the game to properly end.

Some things that didn't make any sense to me:
1. Why was HC Bill Belichick wearing a red hoodie? He'd worn some shade of gray the rest of the season, er seasons, including past Super Bowls.
2. Why the Pats passed up on a 49 yard FG on 4th and 13 in the 3rd quarter? 4th and 4 or 5 with Welker and Moss, ok. But not 4th and 13 the way they played in the first half.

Super Bowl 42

It's almost kickoff time so I should get this posted before wages close.

New England 38 (-12) N Y Giants 20. I think we're more likely to see the dominant Patriots passing attack return. The Giants' secondary is relatively weak, though their strong postseason play might be keyed by DB Corey Webster playing better after replacing Sam Madison (from Louisville). When was the last time that Brady & Co. played in 70 degree weather? Nov 4th vs. the Colts - though they only had 24 in that one. But that Colts team (w/ Freeney) was statistically the league's best defense. The other games in that time frame were the 49-28 and 52-7 type. Sports fans were being reminded that a major league baseball franchise exists in Denver.

Props: I like Moss over 95.5 yards receiving, Brady over 295.5 yards passing, and Welker over 7.5 catches - though I haven't placed any dollars or chips on those. Yesterday's Spygate revelations signaled to me to not touch this game w/ a 10-foot pole. The Pats should use that as a positive motivational tool, but it reminds me too much of the Falcons inexplicaply attempting a 2-point conversion instead of kicking an extra point late in a 34-19 loss to Denver after the '98 season. Chris Chandler rolled left (he's an immoble righty) and threw the ball into the front row of the stands. Why was that significant? The over-under in that game was 53 and the bulk of the money that year was on a Denver repeat.

The Colts

Did Tony Dungy (and the rest of the Colts) look how the Patriots approached the December meaningless games (once home-field advantage was clinched)? Did they remember what happened in 2005 when they backed off? (Lost 21-18 at home to Pittsburgh in first playoff game) Did they remember what happened last year when they had to play hard through ALL 16 games of the regular season to get the #3 seed so they could host the AFC Championship Game if New England was the opponent? (um, defeated NE at home, won Super Bowl).

Apparently not. The Colts lost to a Charger team the struggled to beat 1-dimensional Tennessee at home the week before. The Chargers best 3 offensive players were hobbled. TE Antonio Gates played the whole game with a broken toe. RB LaDanian Tomlinson missed the last 2+ quarters. QB Philip Rivers missed the 4th quarter (though he was still competing against the fans in the 4th).

Peyton Manning led the Colts quickly into the Red Zone after the Chargers took the lead in the 4th quarter. On the 3rd down play, he threw to the wrong guy though. He tried to hit Joseph Addai at the 7 - but Addai was covered. TE Dallas Clark was uncovered at the goal line on the left side - would have bean an easy TD. (A great feature of HD DVR is being able to watch live action a second time and focus on what you want to, not being limited to what the announcers focus on - they never showed Clark uncovered near the goal line). I think the Colts saw it - Clark ran the same pattern on 4th down and was open again - but Charger DL Shawne Merriman was in the backfield so quickly that Manning's only option was to his right - where Clark AND WR Reggie Wayne weren't.

I don't think Dungy's coming back - otherwise the Colts wouldn't have named his successor publicly. I've read sections of his book - he truly seems to be a great man, but if he stays, for the Colts' sake, I hope he watches how Bill Belichick and the Patriots responded to losing the 21-3 lead to the Colts last year. That is the #1 reason why the Patriots attempted to score TDs on EVERY possession. The worst the Patriots could achieve with that result - Overtime. The Colts were Out-Colted by the Patriots this season even though they didn't face them in the playoffs. Look how much like Manning Brady looks now, compared to 2003 & 2004.