BCS Analysis and Forecast

#1 Ohio State v. #2 Michigan - The winner is in the title game, the loser goes to the Rose Bowl unless every other Division 1 team has at least 2 losses. The loser might be #2, but I don't think that it has distinguished itself so much from the other 115 Div I-A teams to get two shots at the #1 team before the other 1-loss teams get a 1st (save for ND v. Michigan rematch. If Ohio State is competitive w/ the Wolverines and ND is 10-1, then I would consider a rematch since ND was trounced by Michigan).

#3 USC - I think that they are correctly ranked here. I am a fan, but believe that their non-conference schedule of likely SEC West Champ Arkansas, likely Big 12 North Champ Nebraska, and Notre Dame (see #5) more than overcomes the difference between the Pac-10 and the SEC, Big 10, etc. That being said, I don't see this team winning its reamining 3 games in LA. Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA are all much better than the triumverate of Arizona State, Washington State, and Washington, all of whom were within a TD of USC in the 4th quarter and had possession of the football.

#4 Florida - They have stumbled since their loss to Auburn but have avoided a second loss. Non-conference schedule: Florida State (which hasn't lost LESS than 4 games since 2000), Southern Miss (ok), Central Florida (?), and Western Carolina (??). No non-conference games against a quality BCS conference team? Did Bill Snyder of Kansas State make this schedule?

#5 Notre Dame - Beat Georgia Tech, tops in ACC. 3-1 against the Big 11, but was mauled by Michigan 47-21, so I don't like the idea of putting them in a rematch. 2-0 against the Pac 10 w/ USC remaining. 2-0 against the Service Academies w/ Army remaining. They might want to look into playing SEC teams more frequently to take away some the SEC fodder "it's the best conference"... they don't (need to play) Army and Air Force every year.

#6 Rutgers - This probably is where they should be until we see them play West Virginia. Before any of their supporters point out that they defeated Illinois by 33 while Ohio State won by 7, they only beat a horrific North Carolina team by 5. The Big East is easliy the weakest of all the BCS conferences and Rutgers' non-conference schedule isn't that tough (Hey Florida, at least it has some BCS conference teams!): North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, Howard, and Navy. Navy is the only team heading to a bowl, but they don't earn many of the required 6 wins against BCS conference teams.

#7 Arkansas - They were taken behind the woodshed by USC in their opener 50-14. The rest of the non-conference slate: Utah St. (?), SE Mo St.(??), Lousiana Monroe (???). They are probably even with Notre Dame in my mind.

#8 West Virginia - I think that they will defeat Rutgers at home. Many BCS suits will be pulling for them as well to prevent the playoff talk that will erupt if an undefeated Rutgers team is displaced in the title game by a 1-loss USC, Florida, or Notre Dame team.

This season is a great example to me of why a playoff isn't in college football's best interest. USC had 1 too many turnovers against Oregon State and had no shot at the championship game until FOUR 1-loss teams lost last Saturday. Florida's lackluster non-conference schedule has it behind a similar 1-loss USC team. Rutgers is undefeated, but there might be more than 3 undefeated Div I-A teams if they played the Scarlet Knights' schedule. I'd be intrigued by a 12-0 Rutgers team, I need to see that first.

Forecast:
#1 Ohio State over Michigan (Jim Tressel owns the Wolverines the way they owned John Cooper).
#3 USC loses at least once to Cal, ND, or UCLA.
#4 Florida wins out over Western Carloina, Florida State, and Arkansas.
#5 Notre Dame wins out.. If the over/under for USC is in the 50s, go under. The two offenses will try to limit the amount of time their defenses are on the field.
#6 Rutgers - loses to West Virginia.
#7 Arkansas - loses to LSU and Florida.

Title Game - Ohio State v. Florida (****FOX, PLEASE SPARE US FROM JOE BUCK. JUST ONCE!****)