Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Baseball HOF Voting
Mark McGwire - no way. He hit a very significant portion (42%) of his career home runs between 1996 and 1999 while he was on the juice. He had to be on the juice, the only logical conclusion one could draw following his Congressional Testimony before the 2005 season "I'm not here to talk about the past." His career numbers from 1987 to 1995 weren't above average for the league. He had some nice home run totals, but didn't hit for a respectable average from 1989-91 (.235 OR LESS). He missed most of 1993 and 1994 due to injuries. When the steriod wing of the Hall of Fame opens in Tijuana (late Padres 3B Ken Caminiti's source), McGwire can be inducted in the innaugural class. Similarly, hit leader Pete Rose can go in with Joe Jackson to the Vegas wing.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Thanksgiving Football
There is a third game in the 8ET timeslot. It's Denver at Kansas City, of note is an AFC team hosting a game. It will air on the NFL Network (available in HD depending on satellite/cable service provider) instead of broadcast or ESPN (though I think the DEN and KC network affiliates will have the opportunity to air the game locally. I wonder if it will draw a higher rating than the lame Lions in the 12ET time slot.
12:30 PM ET - Miami 23 Detroit 10. I'm wondering if the NFL is going to cancel the Lions' hosting Thanksgiving football if GM Matt Millen isn't gone before the next schedule is made. Maybe they can threaten Detroit with Flex Scheduling for THEIR Thanksgiving game. I'm not too disappointed that I'll be in the car for the start of this game!
4:15 PM ET - Dallas 27 Tampa Bay 13. Tampa will have to come up with a Herculean effort to defeat the surging Cowboys. I fear having to listen to Joe Buck announce this game.
I'm not surprised by Cowboy PK Mike Vanderjagt's struggles, search for his name (CTRL-F) in my post following the Steelers-Colts game last season:
http://webjavaworld.blogspot.com/2006_01_01_webjavaworld_archive.html
2005 Playoffs - Steelers 20, Colts 17. MV missed way wide right at end of regulation (46 yds)
2004 Opener - Patriots 30, Colts 27. MV missed way wide right at end of regulation (44 yds)
2000 Playoffs - MV missed way wide right in overtime (42 yds).
Once, an isolated incident. Twice, a trend. Three times, ... Houston, we have a problem.
8:00 ET Denver 23 Kansas City 17. Al Davis can't be happy that the AFC West rivalry being showcased in this one doesn't involve his Raiders, but I can't remember the last time they won an AFC West game. OK, it was in the snow against the Broncos in 2004 (the snow is the only reason I remember that). The Broncos were ambushed by LaDanian Tomlinson and the Chargers in the second half last week, the East Coast newspaper audience had to think that the writers just changed some names and numebrs from the Cincinnati game the week before! QB Jake Plummer hasn't played well this season and needs to rediscover his 2005 form.
BCS - Michigan played well enough in my mind that they could end up behind USC, Florida, Arkansas, or maybe West Virginia should those teams win out. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, college football polling isn't like a golf competition where a low score can be posted early and hold up on its own merit. USC, Florida, and Arkansas all have games left against good (UCLA, Florida State) and excellent (Notre Dame, LSU, Ark-Fla: each other) teams on their schedule that offer the opportunity to leave a strong impression with the voters. The challengers to #2 ranked according to the probability they can pass Michigan:
USC - Still has to win two more games, and this team has been winning ugly. They called on a backup kicker to kick a 49-yard field goal to tie up Cal at 9-9 in the 3rd quarter. Their last TD came on a 4th and 2 downfield pass (I was happy to see a formation with WR's in it, unlike last year's alignment agianst Texas).
Fla - They cleaned up on Western Carolina last week. I-AA opponent? This week's game against FSU shouldn't be a difficult victory, even if it's a rivalry game.
WV - Their one loss was on the road to Louisville, stud RB Steve Slaton was injured in the second half, they fell behind while he was out. If they beat Rutgers at home they might (unlikely based on current BCS rankings) challenge the Wolverines.
Ark - They lost 50-14 to USC, and their SEC road wasn't as challenging as Florida's.
ND - They won't be able to overcome their 47-21 loss to Michigan; the Wolverines are in the BCS clubhouse ahead of the Irish.
12:30 PM ET - Miami 23 Detroit 10. I'm wondering if the NFL is going to cancel the Lions' hosting Thanksgiving football if GM Matt Millen isn't gone before the next schedule is made. Maybe they can threaten Detroit with Flex Scheduling for THEIR Thanksgiving game. I'm not too disappointed that I'll be in the car for the start of this game!
4:15 PM ET - Dallas 27 Tampa Bay 13. Tampa will have to come up with a Herculean effort to defeat the surging Cowboys. I fear having to listen to Joe Buck announce this game.
I'm not surprised by Cowboy PK Mike Vanderjagt's struggles, search for his name (CTRL-F) in my post following the Steelers-Colts game last season:
http://webjavaworld.blogspot.com/2006_01_01_webjavaworld_archive.html
2005 Playoffs - Steelers 20, Colts 17. MV missed way wide right at end of regulation (46 yds)
2004 Opener - Patriots 30, Colts 27. MV missed way wide right at end of regulation (44 yds)
2000 Playoffs - MV missed way wide right in overtime (42 yds).
Once, an isolated incident. Twice, a trend. Three times, ... Houston, we have a problem.
8:00 ET Denver 23 Kansas City 17. Al Davis can't be happy that the AFC West rivalry being showcased in this one doesn't involve his Raiders, but I can't remember the last time they won an AFC West game. OK, it was in the snow against the Broncos in 2004 (the snow is the only reason I remember that). The Broncos were ambushed by LaDanian Tomlinson and the Chargers in the second half last week, the East Coast newspaper audience had to think that the writers just changed some names and numebrs from the Cincinnati game the week before! QB Jake Plummer hasn't played well this season and needs to rediscover his 2005 form.
BCS - Michigan played well enough in my mind that they could end up behind USC, Florida, Arkansas, or maybe West Virginia should those teams win out. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, college football polling isn't like a golf competition where a low score can be posted early and hold up on its own merit. USC, Florida, and Arkansas all have games left against good (UCLA, Florida State) and excellent (Notre Dame, LSU, Ark-Fla: each other) teams on their schedule that offer the opportunity to leave a strong impression with the voters. The challengers to #2 ranked according to the probability they can pass Michigan:
USC - Still has to win two more games, and this team has been winning ugly. They called on a backup kicker to kick a 49-yard field goal to tie up Cal at 9-9 in the 3rd quarter. Their last TD came on a 4th and 2 downfield pass (I was happy to see a formation with WR's in it, unlike last year's alignment agianst Texas).
Fla - They cleaned up on Western Carolina last week. I-AA opponent? This week's game against FSU shouldn't be a difficult victory, even if it's a rivalry game.
WV - Their one loss was on the road to Louisville, stud RB Steve Slaton was injured in the second half, they fell behind while he was out. If they beat Rutgers at home they might (unlikely based on current BCS rankings) challenge the Wolverines.
Ark - They lost 50-14 to USC, and their SEC road wasn't as challenging as Florida's.
ND - They won't be able to overcome their 47-21 loss to Michigan; the Wolverines are in the BCS clubhouse ahead of the Irish.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
BCS Analysis and Forecast
#1 Ohio State v. #2 Michigan - The winner is in the title game, the loser goes to the Rose Bowl unless every other Division 1 team has at least 2 losses. The loser might be #2, but I don't think that it has distinguished itself so much from the other 115 Div I-A teams to get two shots at the #1 team before the other 1-loss teams get a 1st (save for ND v. Michigan rematch. If Ohio State is competitive w/ the Wolverines and ND is 10-1, then I would consider a rematch since ND was trounced by Michigan).
#3 USC - I think that they are correctly ranked here. I am a fan, but believe that their non-conference schedule of likely SEC West Champ Arkansas, likely Big 12 North Champ Nebraska, and Notre Dame (see #5) more than overcomes the difference between the Pac-10 and the SEC, Big 10, etc. That being said, I don't see this team winning its reamining 3 games in LA. Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA are all much better than the triumverate of Arizona State, Washington State, and Washington, all of whom were within a TD of USC in the 4th quarter and had possession of the football.
#4 Florida - They have stumbled since their loss to Auburn but have avoided a second loss. Non-conference schedule: Florida State (which hasn't lost LESS than 4 games since 2000), Southern Miss (ok), Central Florida (?), and Western Carolina (??). No non-conference games against a quality BCS conference team? Did Bill Snyder of Kansas State make this schedule?
#5 Notre Dame - Beat Georgia Tech, tops in ACC. 3-1 against the Big 11, but was mauled by Michigan 47-21, so I don't like the idea of putting them in a rematch. 2-0 against the Pac 10 w/ USC remaining. 2-0 against the Service Academies w/ Army remaining. They might want to look into playing SEC teams more frequently to take away some the SEC fodder "it's the best conference"... they don't (need to play) Army and Air Force every year.
#6 Rutgers - This probably is where they should be until we see them play West Virginia. Before any of their supporters point out that they defeated Illinois by 33 while Ohio State won by 7, they only beat a horrific North Carolina team by 5. The Big East is easliy the weakest of all the BCS conferences and Rutgers' non-conference schedule isn't that tough (Hey Florida, at least it has some BCS conference teams!): North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, Howard, and Navy. Navy is the only team heading to a bowl, but they don't earn many of the required 6 wins against BCS conference teams.
#7 Arkansas - They were taken behind the woodshed by USC in their opener 50-14. The rest of the non-conference slate: Utah St. (?), SE Mo St.(??), Lousiana Monroe (???). They are probably even with Notre Dame in my mind.
#8 West Virginia - I think that they will defeat Rutgers at home. Many BCS suits will be pulling for them as well to prevent the playoff talk that will erupt if an undefeated Rutgers team is displaced in the title game by a 1-loss USC, Florida, or Notre Dame team.
This season is a great example to me of why a playoff isn't in college football's best interest. USC had 1 too many turnovers against Oregon State and had no shot at the championship game until FOUR 1-loss teams lost last Saturday. Florida's lackluster non-conference schedule has it behind a similar 1-loss USC team. Rutgers is undefeated, but there might be more than 3 undefeated Div I-A teams if they played the Scarlet Knights' schedule. I'd be intrigued by a 12-0 Rutgers team, I need to see that first.
Forecast:
#1 Ohio State over Michigan (Jim Tressel owns the Wolverines the way they owned John Cooper).
#3 USC loses at least once to Cal, ND, or UCLA.
#4 Florida wins out over Western Carloina, Florida State, and Arkansas.
#5 Notre Dame wins out.. If the over/under for USC is in the 50s, go under. The two offenses will try to limit the amount of time their defenses are on the field.
#6 Rutgers - loses to West Virginia.
#7 Arkansas - loses to LSU and Florida.
Title Game - Ohio State v. Florida (****FOX, PLEASE SPARE US FROM JOE BUCK. JUST ONCE!****)
#3 USC - I think that they are correctly ranked here. I am a fan, but believe that their non-conference schedule of likely SEC West Champ Arkansas, likely Big 12 North Champ Nebraska, and Notre Dame (see #5) more than overcomes the difference between the Pac-10 and the SEC, Big 10, etc. That being said, I don't see this team winning its reamining 3 games in LA. Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA are all much better than the triumverate of Arizona State, Washington State, and Washington, all of whom were within a TD of USC in the 4th quarter and had possession of the football.
#4 Florida - They have stumbled since their loss to Auburn but have avoided a second loss. Non-conference schedule: Florida State (which hasn't lost LESS than 4 games since 2000), Southern Miss (ok), Central Florida (?), and Western Carolina (??). No non-conference games against a quality BCS conference team? Did Bill Snyder of Kansas State make this schedule?
#5 Notre Dame - Beat Georgia Tech, tops in ACC. 3-1 against the Big 11, but was mauled by Michigan 47-21, so I don't like the idea of putting them in a rematch. 2-0 against the Pac 10 w/ USC remaining. 2-0 against the Service Academies w/ Army remaining. They might want to look into playing SEC teams more frequently to take away some the SEC fodder "it's the best conference"... they don't (need to play) Army and Air Force every year.
#6 Rutgers - This probably is where they should be until we see them play West Virginia. Before any of their supporters point out that they defeated Illinois by 33 while Ohio State won by 7, they only beat a horrific North Carolina team by 5. The Big East is easliy the weakest of all the BCS conferences and Rutgers' non-conference schedule isn't that tough (Hey Florida, at least it has some BCS conference teams!): North Carolina, Illinois, Ohio, Howard, and Navy. Navy is the only team heading to a bowl, but they don't earn many of the required 6 wins against BCS conference teams.
#7 Arkansas - They were taken behind the woodshed by USC in their opener 50-14. The rest of the non-conference slate: Utah St. (?), SE Mo St.(??), Lousiana Monroe (???). They are probably even with Notre Dame in my mind.
#8 West Virginia - I think that they will defeat Rutgers at home. Many BCS suits will be pulling for them as well to prevent the playoff talk that will erupt if an undefeated Rutgers team is displaced in the title game by a 1-loss USC, Florida, or Notre Dame team.
This season is a great example to me of why a playoff isn't in college football's best interest. USC had 1 too many turnovers against Oregon State and had no shot at the championship game until FOUR 1-loss teams lost last Saturday. Florida's lackluster non-conference schedule has it behind a similar 1-loss USC team. Rutgers is undefeated, but there might be more than 3 undefeated Div I-A teams if they played the Scarlet Knights' schedule. I'd be intrigued by a 12-0 Rutgers team, I need to see that first.
Forecast:
#1 Ohio State over Michigan (Jim Tressel owns the Wolverines the way they owned John Cooper).
#3 USC loses at least once to Cal, ND, or UCLA.
#4 Florida wins out over Western Carloina, Florida State, and Arkansas.
#5 Notre Dame wins out.. If the over/under for USC is in the 50s, go under. The two offenses will try to limit the amount of time their defenses are on the field.
#6 Rutgers - loses to West Virginia.
#7 Arkansas - loses to LSU and Florida.
Title Game - Ohio State v. Florida (****FOX, PLEASE SPARE US FROM JOE BUCK. JUST ONCE!****)
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