6:30 FOX HD (5) Carolina (+4) 27 (1) Seattle 20.
Both of these teams have uncertainty at RB. Seattle’s Shaun Alexander suffered a concussion last week against the Redskins. He is expected to play against the Panthers. Carolina RB DeShuan Foster broke his ankle last week against the Bears; he joined fellow RB Stephen Davis on the IR list. Backup RB Nick Goings has almost 100 yards in Carolina’s two playoff games; he had 3 100-yard games for the Panthers last year during their 6-game winning streak when they surged into the NFC playoff picture after a 1-7 start. While he wouldn’t be the RB to carry the load over 16 games, Goings should be capable enough for the 2 games (at most) the Panthers have left this season. The Panthers are playing their 4th straight road game, but I think that they’re up to the task. The first 2 games were over by halftime (Atlanta, NY Giants), and they were able to play from ahead last week at Chicago. Seattle survived its divisional round game last week against Washington despite 3 fumbles and Alexander only gaining 9 yards before suffering a concussion. QB Matt Hasselback carried the offensive load, throwing for 1 TD and running for another. While the Seahawks contained Resdkins RB Clinton Portis (41 yards), they didn’t seem interested in covering WR Santana Moss or TE Chris Cooley. They better have a different plan for Panthers WR Steve Smith. He caught 12 passes for 218 yards and 2 TDs last week. He also carried the ball on end arounds a couple of times. If Carolina can get Smith 15 touches (receptions, punt returns, rushes, direct snaps, etc.), they should generate enough points to win the game.
Sunday, January 22, 2006
AFC Championship
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-9
NFL/2-2/30-29-1
Invest/+0.9*/-.1*
The Seachickens less than impressive victory got the investment selections in the black for the season, but the Patriots didn’t score enough points to get their game over so I’m slightly in the red. I thought that Brady and company had 1 TD drive left in them when they took over inside their 20 at the 4-minute mark, but didn’t like seeing the deep throw so quickly. (It was intercepted by the Broncos triple-deep coverage.)
SUNDAY (All Times ET)
**3:00 CBS HD (2) Denver 23 (-3 ½) (6) Pittsburgh 16. *under 41.5
Three straight road victories is almost impossible for an NFL team to win. That has to be magnified in the playoffs. (My introduction for the Washington-Seattle game last week). Pittsburgh is on a real roll right now, their winning streak is at 7 games. They used a Patriots-style defensive strategy (maximize LBs, minimize DLs) to beat the Colts last week. Pittsburgh has balance on offense with Fast Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis at RB to punish a defense in different ways (speed, power). QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best QB that HC Bill Cowher has had during his tenure. The Steelers will go down the field through the air to get points on the board. Roethlisberger injured his hand or arm in the 2nd half of last week’s game, that may have factored into the Steelers running the ball all but 2 plays (about) after leading 21-3. The Broncos are getting great play from QB Jake Plummer. He made fewer mistakes than Tom Brady last week, even with the Patriots doing an outstanding job against the Broncos running game. Denver’s home field advantage is among the best in the NFL and the Steelers have to be road-weary at this point.
NCAA/0-0/11-9
NFL/2-2/30-29-1
Invest/+0.9*/-.1*
The Seachickens less than impressive victory got the investment selections in the black for the season, but the Patriots didn’t score enough points to get their game over so I’m slightly in the red. I thought that Brady and company had 1 TD drive left in them when they took over inside their 20 at the 4-minute mark, but didn’t like seeing the deep throw so quickly. (It was intercepted by the Broncos triple-deep coverage.)
SUNDAY (All Times ET)
**3:00 CBS HD (2) Denver 23 (-3 ½) (6) Pittsburgh 16. *under 41.5
Three straight road victories is almost impossible for an NFL team to win. That has to be magnified in the playoffs. (My introduction for the Washington-Seattle game last week). Pittsburgh is on a real roll right now, their winning streak is at 7 games. They used a Patriots-style defensive strategy (maximize LBs, minimize DLs) to beat the Colts last week. Pittsburgh has balance on offense with Fast Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis at RB to punish a defense in different ways (speed, power). QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best QB that HC Bill Cowher has had during his tenure. The Steelers will go down the field through the air to get points on the board. Roethlisberger injured his hand or arm in the 2nd half of last week’s game, that may have factored into the Steelers running the ball all but 2 plays (about) after leading 21-3. The Broncos are getting great play from QB Jake Plummer. He made fewer mistakes than Tom Brady last week, even with the Patriots doing an outstanding job against the Broncos running game. Denver’s home field advantage is among the best in the NFL and the Steelers have to be road-weary at this point.
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Divisional Round Reflections
Thoughts on last weekend’s games:
How do the Seahawks fumble the ball 3 times after practicing in the rain for 27 straight days while the Redskins don’t fumble once? I saw FOX’s Tony Siragusa show buckets full of water on the Redskins’ sidelines, but that couldn’t have been that effective.
I hope the Seachickens don’t plan on leaving S Michael Boulware alone on Panther WR Steve Smith the way they left him alone against Redskin WR Santana Moss last weekend. That strategy won’t work 2 weeks in a row.
Denver forced New England into some turnovers and took care of the football when they had it. They got a couple of breaks to get 2 TDs (Pass interference call against CB Asante Samuel and ruling CB Champ Bailey’s fumble out of bounds at the 1). The Broncos defense always had the full field to work with against the Patriots offense and usually was able to force a mistake before the Patriots reached the end zone.
The Colts didn’t play well against the Steelers’ rush, which often went small. Indy was very late to adjust to it. TE Dallas Clark didn’t move to the backfield too often. RB Edgerrin James didn’t get that many carries. QB Peyton Manning had happy feet from the early moments of the game. Perhaps the Colts should have played their regulars about a half in each of the final 2 regular season games.
The officiating in the 4th quarter had two horrible calls. The “no-call” on the false-start/encroachment should have been one or the other. And S Tory Polamalu’s interception shouldn’t have been overturned. I couldn’t help but think that the official in the booth notified that the Steelers should have been hit for the false start and thus were able to run another 4 to 5 minutes off the clock after the 4th down conversion instead of punting.
Colts K Mike Vanderjagt should be looking for a new employer soon. He might be one of the most accurate kickers of all time, but he has only one type of kick in the clutch. So far wide right that he wouldn’t have won the kicking job at Florida State! Vanderjagt has had two other attempts of similar significance in his career. 2000 Playoffs, wild card round at Miami. Overtime, 49 yards. Wide right by about 20 yards. 2004 opener, at New England. Final play of regulation, 48 yards. Wide right by about 30 yards.
So what was QB Peyton Manning thinking on his 3rd down throw to Reggie Wayne. The pass wasn’t close, the defender actually had a decent chance at an interception. Manning should have checked down to James to get the first down and get the idiot kicker a little closer. I understood the 2nd down pass to Wayne in the end zone. The Steelers’ blitz was picked up, and Wayne was one-on-one with no safety coming over. The play to the end zone was the right decision there. But the 3rd down throw should have been shorter, especially since the Colts still had 2 timeouts.
The Bears and Panthers played much better offensively than expected. Rex Grossman was great the last 30 minutes, but would he have started 3 for 15 (for 2 yards!) if he had played some in the regular season finale to get sharp?
My Joe Buck rant of the week – How come he and Troy Aikman didn’t notice that Chicago WR Justin Gage caught the ball with a knee on the ground in the 1st quarter and that the replay overturn would be as easy as the Polomalu overturn was difficult? Buck and Aikman (and their spotters) never considered the possibility until after the referee announced the overturn, and they were stunned!
How do the Seahawks fumble the ball 3 times after practicing in the rain for 27 straight days while the Redskins don’t fumble once? I saw FOX’s Tony Siragusa show buckets full of water on the Redskins’ sidelines, but that couldn’t have been that effective.
I hope the Seachickens don’t plan on leaving S Michael Boulware alone on Panther WR Steve Smith the way they left him alone against Redskin WR Santana Moss last weekend. That strategy won’t work 2 weeks in a row.
Denver forced New England into some turnovers and took care of the football when they had it. They got a couple of breaks to get 2 TDs (Pass interference call against CB Asante Samuel and ruling CB Champ Bailey’s fumble out of bounds at the 1). The Broncos defense always had the full field to work with against the Patriots offense and usually was able to force a mistake before the Patriots reached the end zone.
The Colts didn’t play well against the Steelers’ rush, which often went small. Indy was very late to adjust to it. TE Dallas Clark didn’t move to the backfield too often. RB Edgerrin James didn’t get that many carries. QB Peyton Manning had happy feet from the early moments of the game. Perhaps the Colts should have played their regulars about a half in each of the final 2 regular season games.
The officiating in the 4th quarter had two horrible calls. The “no-call” on the false-start/encroachment should have been one or the other. And S Tory Polamalu’s interception shouldn’t have been overturned. I couldn’t help but think that the official in the booth notified that the Steelers should have been hit for the false start and thus were able to run another 4 to 5 minutes off the clock after the 4th down conversion instead of punting.
Colts K Mike Vanderjagt should be looking for a new employer soon. He might be one of the most accurate kickers of all time, but he has only one type of kick in the clutch. So far wide right that he wouldn’t have won the kicking job at Florida State! Vanderjagt has had two other attempts of similar significance in his career. 2000 Playoffs, wild card round at Miami. Overtime, 49 yards. Wide right by about 20 yards. 2004 opener, at New England. Final play of regulation, 48 yards. Wide right by about 30 yards.
So what was QB Peyton Manning thinking on his 3rd down throw to Reggie Wayne. The pass wasn’t close, the defender actually had a decent chance at an interception. Manning should have checked down to James to get the first down and get the idiot kicker a little closer. I understood the 2nd down pass to Wayne in the end zone. The Steelers’ blitz was picked up, and Wayne was one-on-one with no safety coming over. The play to the end zone was the right decision there. But the 3rd down throw should have been shorter, especially since the Colts still had 2 timeouts.
The Bears and Panthers played much better offensively than expected. Rex Grossman was great the last 30 minutes, but would he have started 3 for 15 (for 2 yards!) if he had played some in the regular season finale to get sharp?
My Joe Buck rant of the week – How come he and Troy Aikman didn’t notice that Chicago WR Justin Gage caught the ball with a knee on the ground in the 1st quarter and that the replay overturn would be as easy as the Polomalu overturn was difficult? Buck and Aikman (and their spotters) never considered the possibility until after the referee announced the overturn, and they were stunned!
Saturday, January 14, 2006
Seahawks or Seachickens?
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-1/11-9
NFL/3-1/28-27-1
Invest/+2*/-1.0*
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**4:30 FOX HD (1) Seattle 27 (-9 ½) (6) Washington 10.
Three straight road victories is almost impossible for an NFL team to win. That has to be magnified in the playoffs. Seattle has balance on offense with NFL MVP Shaun Alexander at RB and Pro Bowler Matt Hasselback at QB. Seattle has earned its designation as Seachickens in recent years, but this year’s defense is playing markedly better.
8:00 CBS HD (4) New England 27 (+3) (2) Denver 20, *over 44.5
New England has won 10 straight postseason games with HC Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady. Many Patriots that didn’t dress for the October game will be on the field for this one (DL Seymour, RB Dillon – at what speed though?, LB Bruschi – see Dillon ?, CB Samuel). The number that struck me looking at the box score of the first game was that the Patriots did a pretty good job against RB Mike Anderson (15 carries, 57 yards). I think that New England will do a much better job against the Denver WRs and just can’t convince myself to pick Denver QB Jake Plummer to outduel Tom Brady.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD (1) Indianapolis 27 (-10) (6) Pittsburgh 16. The Colts flipped a switch at the start of the regular season, starting 13-0 after an 0-5 preseason. The offense didn’t score much during the first month of the season against some strong defenses (24 v. Baltimore, 10 v. Jacksonville, and 13 v. Cleveland), but the Colts won those games because their defense started the season at a high level. The Colts are just too fast for the Steelers on both sides of the ball and the Steelers may not be able to stay in the game while waiting for their running game to take its toll on the smaller Colts defense.
4:30 FOX HD (5) Carolina 16 (+2 ½) (2) Chicago 13. I think that this Bears team is better than the 2001 unit that had a similar regular season. The Bears did win 13-3 in the regular season game, sacking Panthers QB Jake Delhomme 8 times. It was one of 7 games that the Bears won with their offense scoring 1 TD (or less). What I didn’t like about the way the Bears finished the season against the Vikings was that starting QB Rex Grossman didn’t play. He has started 7 or 8 games in his 3-year career. He didn’t need the week off. He needed the game action to prepare for the playoffs. The key to this game will be avoiding turnovers in their own territory.
NCAA/0-1/11-9
NFL/3-1/28-27-1
Invest/+2*/-1.0*
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**4:30 FOX HD (1) Seattle 27 (-9 ½) (6) Washington 10.
Three straight road victories is almost impossible for an NFL team to win. That has to be magnified in the playoffs. Seattle has balance on offense with NFL MVP Shaun Alexander at RB and Pro Bowler Matt Hasselback at QB. Seattle has earned its designation as Seachickens in recent years, but this year’s defense is playing markedly better.
8:00 CBS HD (4) New England 27 (+3) (2) Denver 20, *over 44.5
New England has won 10 straight postseason games with HC Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady. Many Patriots that didn’t dress for the October game will be on the field for this one (DL Seymour, RB Dillon – at what speed though?, LB Bruschi – see Dillon ?, CB Samuel). The number that struck me looking at the box score of the first game was that the Patriots did a pretty good job against RB Mike Anderson (15 carries, 57 yards). I think that New England will do a much better job against the Denver WRs and just can’t convince myself to pick Denver QB Jake Plummer to outduel Tom Brady.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD (1) Indianapolis 27 (-10) (6) Pittsburgh 16. The Colts flipped a switch at the start of the regular season, starting 13-0 after an 0-5 preseason. The offense didn’t score much during the first month of the season against some strong defenses (24 v. Baltimore, 10 v. Jacksonville, and 13 v. Cleveland), but the Colts won those games because their defense started the season at a high level. The Colts are just too fast for the Steelers on both sides of the ball and the Steelers may not be able to stay in the game while waiting for their running game to take its toll on the smaller Colts defense.
4:30 FOX HD (5) Carolina 16 (+2 ½) (2) Chicago 13. I think that this Bears team is better than the 2001 unit that had a similar regular season. The Bears did win 13-3 in the regular season game, sacking Panthers QB Jake Delhomme 8 times. It was one of 7 games that the Bears won with their offense scoring 1 TD (or less). What I didn’t like about the way the Bears finished the season against the Vikings was that starting QB Rex Grossman didn’t play. He has started 7 or 8 games in his 3-year career. He didn’t need the week off. He needed the game action to prepare for the playoffs. The key to this game will be avoiding turnovers in their own territory.
Saturday, January 07, 2006
Wild Card Weekend
What an outstanding performance by Vince Young for Texas Wednesday night. But I have to ask, why didn’t USC close the running lane outside to the right? Did they watch any of the tapes from Young’s performance in the Rose Bowl last year? I think Pete Carroll did the right thing going for the first down on 4th and 2… his defense hadn’t stopped Young all night… why would that change? Texas only needed 1 timeout on their winning drive. I would have like to have seen some WRs on the field instead of the 2 TE look… Texas had 9 men in the box against RB LenDale White.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
4:30 ABC HD (3) Tampa Bay 23 (-2 ½) (6) Washington 20.
Because of turnover margin (+3), the Redskins won this game with an offense that produced 120 yards in 60 minutes.
**8:00 ABC HD (4) New England 27 (-8) (5) Jacksonville 13.
The Patriots played a solid game against the Jaguars, reducing their offense to one dimension. WR Jimmy Smith didn’t have a good night, and the Jaguars are still looking for their first postseason touchdown in New England.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD (5) Carolina 27 (+3) (4) N.Y. Giants 16. New York QB Eli Manning has had some impressive moments in his second season, but threw the most interceptions this side of Green Bay QB Brett Favre. Giants RB Tiki Barber will need to have the success that Cowboy RBs Marion Barber and Julius Jones enjoyed 2 weeks ago. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme has had his own interception issues and the Meadowlands can be a difficult place to throw the ball in January.
4:30 CBS HD (6) Pittsburgh 26 (-3) (3) Cincinnati 13. The Steelers won 4 straight to make the playoffs after losing successive games to Cincinnati and Indianapolis. The key to the winning streak (mostly against the lackluster NFC North) was the reliance on the running game with RB Fast Willie Parker outside the 10 and Jerome Bettis inside the 10. Cincinnati wrapped up the AFC North in Week 15, then lost to Buffalo (close) and Kansas City (rout) to close the regular season.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
4:30 ABC HD (3) Tampa Bay 23 (-2 ½) (6) Washington 20.
Because of turnover margin (+3), the Redskins won this game with an offense that produced 120 yards in 60 minutes.
**8:00 ABC HD (4) New England 27 (-8) (5) Jacksonville 13.
The Patriots played a solid game against the Jaguars, reducing their offense to one dimension. WR Jimmy Smith didn’t have a good night, and the Jaguars are still looking for their first postseason touchdown in New England.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD (5) Carolina 27 (+3) (4) N.Y. Giants 16. New York QB Eli Manning has had some impressive moments in his second season, but threw the most interceptions this side of Green Bay QB Brett Favre. Giants RB Tiki Barber will need to have the success that Cowboy RBs Marion Barber and Julius Jones enjoyed 2 weeks ago. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme has had his own interception issues and the Meadowlands can be a difficult place to throw the ball in January.
4:30 CBS HD (6) Pittsburgh 26 (-3) (3) Cincinnati 13. The Steelers won 4 straight to make the playoffs after losing successive games to Cincinnati and Indianapolis. The key to the winning streak (mostly against the lackluster NFC North) was the reliance on the running game with RB Fast Willie Parker outside the 10 and Jerome Bettis inside the 10. Cincinnati wrapped up the AFC North in Week 15, then lost to Buffalo (close) and Kansas City (rout) to close the regular season.
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Texas v. USC is finally here
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/1-0/25-26-1
Invest/+2*/-3.0*
WEDNESDAY
8:28 ABC HD #1 USC 27 (-8) #2 Texas 17. I don't like the 8:28 ET kickoff time. That made the 3 OT game between Penn St. and Florida St. end too late for me... on the WEST COAST! After a month of waiting and media attention, the Trojans aim for their 3rd straight national title (or portion of) against the Longhorns behind QB Matt Leinhart (2004 Heisman), RB Reggie Bush (2005 Heisman), RB LenDale White, and WR Dwayne Jarrett. Texas QB Vince Young is as dangerous as USC RB Reggie Bush because he touches the ball on every play while Bush is limited to taking handoffs, catching passes, or returning kicks. Texas’ defense was better statistically than USC’s, but there are more offensively challenged teams at the bottom of the Big 12 than the Pac 10. USC’s offense is so sophisticated (for the college level) that I can’t see Texas being able to shut it down for the whole game unless USC doesn’t set its alarm clock. Halftime won’t cut it for the Trojans as it did at Oregon and Arizona St.
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/1-0/25-26-1
Invest/+2*/-3.0*
WEDNESDAY
8:28 ABC HD #1 USC 27 (-8) #2 Texas 17. I don't like the 8:28 ET kickoff time. That made the 3 OT game between Penn St. and Florida St. end too late for me... on the WEST COAST! After a month of waiting and media attention, the Trojans aim for their 3rd straight national title (or portion of) against the Longhorns behind QB Matt Leinhart (2004 Heisman), RB Reggie Bush (2005 Heisman), RB LenDale White, and WR Dwayne Jarrett. Texas QB Vince Young is as dangerous as USC RB Reggie Bush because he touches the ball on every play while Bush is limited to taking handoffs, catching passes, or returning kicks. Texas’ defense was better statistically than USC’s, but there are more offensively challenged teams at the bottom of the Big 12 than the Pac 10. USC’s offense is so sophisticated (for the college level) that I can’t see Texas being able to shut it down for the whole game unless USC doesn’t set its alarm clock. Halftime won’t cut it for the Trojans as it did at Oregon and Arizona St.
Monday, December 26, 2005
Week 15 Observations (a bit late)
The Chargers brought the Colts’ undefeated season to an end. They contained RB Edgerrin James and forced QB Peyton Manning out of the pocket where he isn’t as efficient. But the win comes a week too late for the Chargers. They lose the tiebreaker to the Steelers for the 6-seed in the AFC and while they face two quality teams to close the season (at Kansas City, Denver), likely Wild Cards Pittsburgh (at Cleveland, Detroit) and Jacksonville (at Houston, Tennessee) face teams that don’t seem interested in winning.
Too bad FOX doesn’t have another play-by-play announcer to be its #1. Joe Buck just isn’t a football announcer. Sometime during the first half of the Cowboys’ 25-7 debacle in Washington, Buck suggested that Dallas pull QB Drew Bledsoe with next week’s game against Carolina in mind. Despite the fact that a QB throws a ball, the quarterback position is not similar to a starting pitcher in baseball. The QB is the offensive unit’s leader. Oriole SS Cal Ripken Jr. didn’t take innings off for seasons at a time in the mid-80s. At the end of the game, Buck and former Dallas QB Troy Aikman wondered out loud why HC Bill Parcells was still calling timeouts in a 35-7 defeat. The answer is quite simple to anyone who has watched a Parcells-coached team for any length of time over the past 23 years (18 as HC). Parcells was upset that his team didn’t come to play a game that it had to have in order to make the playoffs. His coaching method was to force them to endure the stink of their effort for as long as he could. Parcells isn’t a “nice” coach; he coaches through toughness, and his style isn’t that difficult to comprehend. Dallas was so bad on Sunday that I think Washington could have won the game had they dressed the San Francisco roster in Redskins uniforms.
Speaking of the 49ers, they are really bad. They only managed 5 offensive first downs over the course of the game on Sunday in Jacksonville. For the 7th time this season they didn’t score a touchdown. But their defense was solid, holding Jacksonville to 10 points. Bay Area football fans can take pride in their teams’ efforts Sunday: Jacksonville 10, San Francisco 9 and Cleveland 9, Oakland 7. Thankfully the Raiders didn’t sell out and Cincinnati’s rout of the Lions was televised there.
The Bears had a typical first half Sunday Night. 2 first downs, 4 3-and-outs, and about 60 yards … and a 6-3 lead over the Falcons. Former starting QB Rex Grossman replaced rookie Kyle Orton and led the Bears to 10 points in the 3rd quarter and the final 16-3 winning margin. The Bears could be dangerous in the playoffs; they are 3-0 against the strong teams in the NFC South.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/6-2/24-26-1
Invest/+2*/-5.0*
INVEST
**9:00 ABC HD New England 26 (-5 ½) N.Y. Jets 9. ABC’s Monday Night Football sure is going out with a bang! No beer will be sold in the stands during the game, but plenty will be consumed in the parking lot beforehand. The Patriots are on a roll right now, just in time for the playoffs. I don’t expect the Patriots to change their approach in the final 2 regular season games even though they can’t do much to improve their playoff seeding. HC Bill Belichick prefers to keep his teams in top form, and since they’ve only had key players like RB Corey Dillon, LB Tedy Bruschi, and DL Richard Seymour in the lineup for a couple of weeks, Belichick will want those guys to be sharp for the playoffs.
Too bad FOX doesn’t have another play-by-play announcer to be its #1. Joe Buck just isn’t a football announcer. Sometime during the first half of the Cowboys’ 25-7 debacle in Washington, Buck suggested that Dallas pull QB Drew Bledsoe with next week’s game against Carolina in mind. Despite the fact that a QB throws a ball, the quarterback position is not similar to a starting pitcher in baseball. The QB is the offensive unit’s leader. Oriole SS Cal Ripken Jr. didn’t take innings off for seasons at a time in the mid-80s. At the end of the game, Buck and former Dallas QB Troy Aikman wondered out loud why HC Bill Parcells was still calling timeouts in a 35-7 defeat. The answer is quite simple to anyone who has watched a Parcells-coached team for any length of time over the past 23 years (18 as HC). Parcells was upset that his team didn’t come to play a game that it had to have in order to make the playoffs. His coaching method was to force them to endure the stink of their effort for as long as he could. Parcells isn’t a “nice” coach; he coaches through toughness, and his style isn’t that difficult to comprehend. Dallas was so bad on Sunday that I think Washington could have won the game had they dressed the San Francisco roster in Redskins uniforms.
Speaking of the 49ers, they are really bad. They only managed 5 offensive first downs over the course of the game on Sunday in Jacksonville. For the 7th time this season they didn’t score a touchdown. But their defense was solid, holding Jacksonville to 10 points. Bay Area football fans can take pride in their teams’ efforts Sunday: Jacksonville 10, San Francisco 9 and Cleveland 9, Oakland 7. Thankfully the Raiders didn’t sell out and Cincinnati’s rout of the Lions was televised there.
The Bears had a typical first half Sunday Night. 2 first downs, 4 3-and-outs, and about 60 yards … and a 6-3 lead over the Falcons. Former starting QB Rex Grossman replaced rookie Kyle Orton and led the Bears to 10 points in the 3rd quarter and the final 16-3 winning margin. The Bears could be dangerous in the playoffs; they are 3-0 against the strong teams in the NFC South.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/6-2/24-26-1
Invest/+2*/-5.0*
INVEST
**9:00 ABC HD New England 26 (-5 ½) N.Y. Jets 9. ABC’s Monday Night Football sure is going out with a bang! No beer will be sold in the stands during the game, but plenty will be consumed in the parking lot beforehand. The Patriots are on a roll right now, just in time for the playoffs. I don’t expect the Patriots to change their approach in the final 2 regular season games even though they can’t do much to improve their playoff seeding. HC Bill Belichick prefers to keep his teams in top form, and since they’ve only had key players like RB Corey Dillon, LB Tedy Bruschi, and DL Richard Seymour in the lineup for a couple of weeks, Belichick will want those guys to be sharp for the playoffs.
Friday, December 16, 2005
Patriots Rounding into Form
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/0-1/18-24-1
Invest/-1.1*/-7.0*
INVEST
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**1:30 FOX HD New England 24 (-5) Tampa Bay 16. The Patriots are starting to get their key performers back. LB Tedy Bruschi has been back for a month. DL Richard Seymour returned last week. The RBs in Buffalo last week weren’t Patrick Pass, Heath Evans, or Mike Cloud, but regulars Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. QB Tom Brady had another strong game despite suffering a leg injury in the 1st half. Tampa Bay has rebounded to win 3 in a row after the San Francisco debacle, but young QBs rarely play well against Bill Belichick coached defenses.
5:00 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2 ½) Kansas City 24. The Giants got an important road win at Philly last week and return to the Meadowlands for their 9th game there this season. QB Eli Manning has not been as efficient the past few weeks, and needs to avoid interceptions. Kansas City is running the ball better with RB Larry Johnson subbing for an injured Priest Holmes. The Chiefs lost to Dallas last week and fell 2 games behins division leading Denver in the AFC West.
8:30 ESPN HD Denver 26 (-8 ½) Buffalo 10. Skip it unless you are a diehard. The Bills go back to Kelly Holcomb at QB with J.P. Losman sidelined with a head injury. RB Willis McGahee also has a head injury, but his is more like former Ealge WR T.O. than a medical one.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+7 ½) Indianapolis 27. The Chargers have their backs to the wall in this one. They have playoff aspirations but have lost a number of close games (Dallas, at Denver, Pittsburgh, at Philadelphia, Miami) this season. Three of those five losses came at home; the Chargers had 4th quarter leads against the Cowboys, Steelers, and Eagles. The Colts are attempting not to appear interested in pursuing an undefeated season, preferring to focus instead on staying healthy for the playoffs. I think they’ll be gunning for the 16-0, despite what WFAN’s Mike Francessa thinks.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3 ½) Minnesota 20. The Steelers mauled the Bears last week to stop a 3-game losing streak. They will continue their roll through the NFC North. RB Willie Parker should see the bulk of the carries on the artificial turf of the Metrodome. Minnesota has won 6 straight after losing QB Daunte Culpepper for the season to a knee injury. QB Brad Johnson has avoided mistakes during his second stint as Vikings QB. All victories count the same, but the Vikings’ six have come against Green Bay, Cleveland, N.Y. Giants, Detroit (twice), and St. Louis. Only the Giants are still in the playoff hunt, and the Vikings offense posted only a FG in that one, watching and punting while the defense and special teams scored 3 TDs (PR, KOR, Int Ret).
4:15 FOX HD Dallas 23 (+3) Washington 16. Thankfully this game swapped timeslots with the Eagles/Rams game. I don’t think that Washington WR Santana Moss will get behind S Roy Williams this time, but Dallas will have to tackle Moss on the flanker screen. The winner stays alive in the NFC East race while the loser probably only remains mathematically alive for a playoff berth.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Chicago 16 (-3) Atlanta 10. If Falcons QB Michael Vick wasn’t prone to turning the ball over, I would take the Falcons here. Atlanta should study the films of last week’s Bears-Steleers game. RB T. J. Duckett can run the plays that Jrome Bettis did and Warrick Dunn can run the ones that Willie Parker did. When QB Ben Roethlisbreger threw, Vick should run a bootleg. The Bears can be beaten if a team chooses not to risk the football, because the Bears won’t move the ball more than about 25 yards on an offensive possession. Rookie QB Kyle Orton understands the value of the punt in the NFL regular season. It’s a big reason why the Bears lead the NFC North.
9:00 ABC HD Green Bay 16 (+3) Baltimore 13. Skip it unless you are a diehard. Packer QB Brett Favre is struggling with interceptions but has a RB he can trust in Samkon Gado. The Ravens are playing Kyle Boller at QB, who is struggling after returning from a leg injury. ABC sure would like to switch this game out for one with playoff implications. NBC will have that option on Sunday nights next fall.
NCAA/0-0/11-8
NFL/0-1/18-24-1
Invest/-1.1*/-7.0*
INVEST
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**1:30 FOX HD New England 24 (-5) Tampa Bay 16. The Patriots are starting to get their key performers back. LB Tedy Bruschi has been back for a month. DL Richard Seymour returned last week. The RBs in Buffalo last week weren’t Patrick Pass, Heath Evans, or Mike Cloud, but regulars Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk. QB Tom Brady had another strong game despite suffering a leg injury in the 1st half. Tampa Bay has rebounded to win 3 in a row after the San Francisco debacle, but young QBs rarely play well against Bill Belichick coached defenses.
5:00 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2 ½) Kansas City 24. The Giants got an important road win at Philly last week and return to the Meadowlands for their 9th game there this season. QB Eli Manning has not been as efficient the past few weeks, and needs to avoid interceptions. Kansas City is running the ball better with RB Larry Johnson subbing for an injured Priest Holmes. The Chiefs lost to Dallas last week and fell 2 games behins division leading Denver in the AFC West.
8:30 ESPN HD Denver 26 (-8 ½) Buffalo 10. Skip it unless you are a diehard. The Bills go back to Kelly Holcomb at QB with J.P. Losman sidelined with a head injury. RB Willis McGahee also has a head injury, but his is more like former Ealge WR T.O. than a medical one.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+7 ½) Indianapolis 27. The Chargers have their backs to the wall in this one. They have playoff aspirations but have lost a number of close games (Dallas, at Denver, Pittsburgh, at Philadelphia, Miami) this season. Three of those five losses came at home; the Chargers had 4th quarter leads against the Cowboys, Steelers, and Eagles. The Colts are attempting not to appear interested in pursuing an undefeated season, preferring to focus instead on staying healthy for the playoffs. I think they’ll be gunning for the 16-0, despite what WFAN’s Mike Francessa thinks.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3 ½) Minnesota 20. The Steelers mauled the Bears last week to stop a 3-game losing streak. They will continue their roll through the NFC North. RB Willie Parker should see the bulk of the carries on the artificial turf of the Metrodome. Minnesota has won 6 straight after losing QB Daunte Culpepper for the season to a knee injury. QB Brad Johnson has avoided mistakes during his second stint as Vikings QB. All victories count the same, but the Vikings’ six have come against Green Bay, Cleveland, N.Y. Giants, Detroit (twice), and St. Louis. Only the Giants are still in the playoff hunt, and the Vikings offense posted only a FG in that one, watching and punting while the defense and special teams scored 3 TDs (PR, KOR, Int Ret).
4:15 FOX HD Dallas 23 (+3) Washington 16. Thankfully this game swapped timeslots with the Eagles/Rams game. I don’t think that Washington WR Santana Moss will get behind S Roy Williams this time, but Dallas will have to tackle Moss on the flanker screen. The winner stays alive in the NFC East race while the loser probably only remains mathematically alive for a playoff berth.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Chicago 16 (-3) Atlanta 10. If Falcons QB Michael Vick wasn’t prone to turning the ball over, I would take the Falcons here. Atlanta should study the films of last week’s Bears-Steleers game. RB T. J. Duckett can run the plays that Jrome Bettis did and Warrick Dunn can run the ones that Willie Parker did. When QB Ben Roethlisbreger threw, Vick should run a bootleg. The Bears can be beaten if a team chooses not to risk the football, because the Bears won’t move the ball more than about 25 yards on an offensive possession. Rookie QB Kyle Orton understands the value of the punt in the NFL regular season. It’s a big reason why the Bears lead the NFC North.
9:00 ABC HD Green Bay 16 (+3) Baltimore 13. Skip it unless you are a diehard. Packer QB Brett Favre is struggling with interceptions but has a RB he can trust in Samkon Gado. The Ravens are playing Kyle Boller at QB, who is struggling after returning from a leg injury. ABC sure would like to switch this game out for one with playoff implications. NBC will have that option on Sunday nights next fall.
Monday, December 12, 2005
VT - Stands for Vick's Team
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/2-2/11-8
NFL/1-5/18-23-1
Invest/-2.2*/-5.9*
INVEST
*9:00 ABC HD New Orleans (+10 ½) 20 Atlanta 26. What was ABC thinking scheduling the Saints for a MNF game after November 15th? They have been an entertaining team under HC Jim Haslett and QB Aaron Brooks, but they’ve only had one 10-win season in their 6 year tenure in New Orleans. Atlanta QB Michael Vick makes this game worth watching, and the Falcons need to win this one to stay in the playoff hunt in the NFC, where it’s looking like 10 wins might not be enough to earn a playoff berth. The Falcons will earn the win, but are too inconsistent to be giving any team besides San Francisco 10 ½ points.
The Colts are 13-0 and have wrapped up home field throughout the AFC playoffs. I think their toughest game will be this coming Sunday vs. the Chargers. San Diego sleepwalked through the second and third quarters and wound up losing to Miami. The Chargers are a desperate team and have the offensive balance and players to run with the Colts. Indy can take a huge step by knocking out the team they don’t want to play in the playoffs (after the Patriots, of course) in the regular season.
SF Bay Area NFL coverage on network television stinks. Two weeks ago we were subjected to San Francisco v. Tennessee early and Jacksonville v. Arizona late (the Raiders didn’t sell out as usual). I should have checked the local ratings for the late game. Outdoor Life probably outdrew it with an NHL game. The NFL should establish a new rule for two-market teams (SF, NY). If each franchise wins less than 6 games the previous season, they should have to play at the same time at least 4 times the next season. Yesterday it was a little better. Oakland v. N.Y. Jets early followed by San Francisco v. Seattle and Miami v. San Diego (non-HD) late. The doubleheader game (Mia-SD) was entertaining, but it wasn’t in HD, and Kansas City v. Dallas was on in the same time slot and wasn’t picked by the CBS affiliate in SF. I painfully tune into the NFL Network’s Sunday Drive telecast of a radio show for cut-ins to red zone coverage of other games. I’ve yet to hear any cut-ins to 49er or Raider games. Hmm.
NCAA/2-2/11-8
NFL/1-5/18-23-1
Invest/-2.2*/-5.9*
INVEST
*9:00 ABC HD New Orleans (+10 ½) 20 Atlanta 26. What was ABC thinking scheduling the Saints for a MNF game after November 15th? They have been an entertaining team under HC Jim Haslett and QB Aaron Brooks, but they’ve only had one 10-win season in their 6 year tenure in New Orleans. Atlanta QB Michael Vick makes this game worth watching, and the Falcons need to win this one to stay in the playoff hunt in the NFC, where it’s looking like 10 wins might not be enough to earn a playoff berth. The Falcons will earn the win, but are too inconsistent to be giving any team besides San Francisco 10 ½ points.
The Colts are 13-0 and have wrapped up home field throughout the AFC playoffs. I think their toughest game will be this coming Sunday vs. the Chargers. San Diego sleepwalked through the second and third quarters and wound up losing to Miami. The Chargers are a desperate team and have the offensive balance and players to run with the Colts. Indy can take a huge step by knocking out the team they don’t want to play in the playoffs (after the Patriots, of course) in the regular season.
SF Bay Area NFL coverage on network television stinks. Two weeks ago we were subjected to San Francisco v. Tennessee early and Jacksonville v. Arizona late (the Raiders didn’t sell out as usual). I should have checked the local ratings for the late game. Outdoor Life probably outdrew it with an NHL game. The NFL should establish a new rule for two-market teams (SF, NY). If each franchise wins less than 6 games the previous season, they should have to play at the same time at least 4 times the next season. Yesterday it was a little better. Oakland v. N.Y. Jets early followed by San Francisco v. Seattle and Miami v. San Diego (non-HD) late. The doubleheader game (Mia-SD) was entertaining, but it wasn’t in HD, and Kansas City v. Dallas was on in the same time slot and wasn’t picked by the CBS affiliate in SF. I painfully tune into the NFL Network’s Sunday Drive telecast of a radio show for cut-ins to red zone coverage of other games. I’ve yet to hear any cut-ins to 49er or Raider games. Hmm.
Friday, December 02, 2005
BCS Qualifiers
Notre Dame almost lost out on $15 million with its 4th quarter letdown against Stanford. I don’t know why HC Charlie Weis sent the injured PK (after 2 missed kicks, 1 XP and 1 FG) onto the field after the backup had made a FG. It almost cost the Irish big time.
Colts: 11-0 and looking unstoppable.
Vikings: 4 game winning streak after losing starting QB Daunte Culpepper for the season, the boat party, the Whizinator, HC Mike Tice selling Super Bowl tickets, original new ownership faked being a former NFL player on his resume. With a win over the Lions, the Vikings could actually be tied for the final wild-card spot in the NFC.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-2/9-6
NFL/3-3/17-18-1
Invest/+1*/-3.7*
INVEST
**#12 UCLA 30 (+24) #1 USC 45. The Trojans haven’t slowed good offenses recenctly… Fresno State put 42 on the board 2 weeks ago. Southern Cal should win, but I can’t see them covering, they’ll need to get into the 60’s to do that.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
1:00 ABC HD #2 Texas 58 (-27) Colorado 2. Why are they even playing this game? Iowa State tanked it in the 4th quarter at Kansas and gave Colorado its spot back.
2:30 CBS HD Navy 30 (-6 ½) Army 23. This series is going to move back to a field goal spread soon. Army HC Bobby Ross is restoring the program. Navy might be distracted after earning a 3rd straight bowl appearance, to the Pointsetta Bowl in San Diego.
4:30 ABC HD #1 UCLA 30 (+24) USC 45.
6:00 CBS HD #4 LSU 23 (-1) #13 Georgia 20. Because it’s on TV. LSU might be able to move into the title game if either Texas or USC falters earlier in the afternoon.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (-3) Dallas 23. Both teams suffered tough overtime losses last week and the winner takes sole possession of first place in the NFC East. NY QB Eli Manning is playing better than Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe right now.
1:00 FOX HD Atlanta 19 (+3) Carolina 16. Atlanta QB Mike Vick hasn’t been that consistent throwing the ball; Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is turning the ball over than the Panthers can allow. Incompletions are better than interceptions.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3) Cincinnati 16. The Steelers can effectively take a 2-game lead on the Bengals in the AFC North with a victory in this one. They will need to run the ball much better than they did on MNF against the Colts. RBs Bettis, Parker, and Staley were all active, but none was effective. QB Ben Roethlisberger looked rusty against the Colts but his presence is needed to give the Steelers offensive balance. The Bengals can win if they get a solid outing from QB Palmer, RB Johnson, and WR Johnson.
4:15 CBS HD Denver 24 (+3) Kansas City 20. The Chiefs have a great December home record in recent seasons and need this one to pull within 1 game of Denver in the AFC West. The Broncos get RB Tatum Bell back this week and have had 10 days to prepare for this one.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Oakland 24 (+11) San Diego 31. The Chargers will keep rolling towards the playoffs but the Raiders will cover the points as WR Randy Moss finds the end zone in a prime time game.
9:00 ABC HD Philadelphia 22 (+4) Seattle 17. The Seachickens haven’t proven their toughness yet and the Eagles aren’t ready to quit just yet.
Colts: 11-0 and looking unstoppable.
Vikings: 4 game winning streak after losing starting QB Daunte Culpepper for the season, the boat party, the Whizinator, HC Mike Tice selling Super Bowl tickets, original new ownership faked being a former NFL player on his resume. With a win over the Lions, the Vikings could actually be tied for the final wild-card spot in the NFC.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/0-2/9-6
NFL/3-3/17-18-1
Invest/+1*/-3.7*
INVEST
**#12 UCLA 30 (+24) #1 USC 45. The Trojans haven’t slowed good offenses recenctly… Fresno State put 42 on the board 2 weeks ago. Southern Cal should win, but I can’t see them covering, they’ll need to get into the 60’s to do that.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
1:00 ABC HD #2 Texas 58 (-27) Colorado 2. Why are they even playing this game? Iowa State tanked it in the 4th quarter at Kansas and gave Colorado its spot back.
2:30 CBS HD Navy 30 (-6 ½) Army 23. This series is going to move back to a field goal spread soon. Army HC Bobby Ross is restoring the program. Navy might be distracted after earning a 3rd straight bowl appearance, to the Pointsetta Bowl in San Diego.
4:30 ABC HD #1 UCLA 30 (+24) USC 45.
6:00 CBS HD #4 LSU 23 (-1) #13 Georgia 20. Because it’s on TV. LSU might be able to move into the title game if either Texas or USC falters earlier in the afternoon.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (-3) Dallas 23. Both teams suffered tough overtime losses last week and the winner takes sole possession of first place in the NFC East. NY QB Eli Manning is playing better than Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe right now.
1:00 FOX HD Atlanta 19 (+3) Carolina 16. Atlanta QB Mike Vick hasn’t been that consistent throwing the ball; Carolina QB Jake Delhomme is turning the ball over than the Panthers can allow. Incompletions are better than interceptions.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 24 (-3) Cincinnati 16. The Steelers can effectively take a 2-game lead on the Bengals in the AFC North with a victory in this one. They will need to run the ball much better than they did on MNF against the Colts. RBs Bettis, Parker, and Staley were all active, but none was effective. QB Ben Roethlisberger looked rusty against the Colts but his presence is needed to give the Steelers offensive balance. The Bengals can win if they get a solid outing from QB Palmer, RB Johnson, and WR Johnson.
4:15 CBS HD Denver 24 (+3) Kansas City 20. The Chiefs have a great December home record in recent seasons and need this one to pull within 1 game of Denver in the AFC West. The Broncos get RB Tatum Bell back this week and have had 10 days to prepare for this one.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Oakland 24 (+11) San Diego 31. The Chargers will keep rolling towards the playoffs but the Raiders will cover the points as WR Randy Moss finds the end zone in a prime time game.
9:00 ABC HD Philadelphia 22 (+4) Seattle 17. The Seachickens haven’t proven their toughness yet and the Eagles aren’t ready to quit just yet.
Saturday, November 26, 2005
When Will the Cowboys Learn?
They shouldn’t wear their blue jerseys at home. Ever. Doesn’t Jerry Jones remember opponents wearing white at home (during the Tom Landry era) to force the Cowboys to wear their blue jerseys? Dallas has 2 home losses this season, to Washington and Denver. Both occurred in with the Cowboys wearing their blue jerseys in front of a national television audience. The Cowboys allowed two long TD passes to Redskins WR Santana Moss within a 120 second span in the closing minutes to lose 14-13. Against Denver on Thanksgiving, PK Billy Cundiff missed a 34-yard field goal that would have given the Cowboys the lead in the 4th quarter. Dallas needs to accept the fact it doesn’t win in its blue jerseys and should stop suffering losses to overcome a superstition.
Texas survived a battle at Texas A&M to stay on target for a Rose Bowl date with USC. They don’t know who they’re playing yet since Colorado forgot to show up for their game against Nebraska. Even a clock operator’s lazy trigger at the end of the first half couldn’t slow the Huskers. The officiating crew must have been big fans of White Sox C A.J. Pierzinski during the ALCS, allowing the participant to pass judgment.
Type/Many Weeks Ago/Season
NCAA/1-0/10-4
NFL/3-1/17-16-1
Invest/+2*/-2.7*
INVEST
*Cleveland 13 @ Minnesota 10 (under 39). Neither of these offenses is particularly good at throwing the football. Both QBs, Dilfer (Cle) and Johnson (Min) aren’t going to take chances that could result in interceptions and short fields for the opposing offense. Somehow the Vikings have rebounded from a 2-5 start, the boat party, and the loss of starting QB Daunte Culpepper to climb back into the NFC playoff race. When will they turn into the real Vikings and disappoint their fans?
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
12:30 FSN Iowa State 19 (-2 ½) Kansas 13. I don’t know a thing about either team, but the Cyclones could earn a berth in the Big 12 Championship game with a win here.
5:00 ABC Notre Dame 38 (-16 ½) Stanford 20. The Irish can lock in their first BCS appearance since 2001 and generate the revenue necessary to pay HC Charlie Weis’ contract extension. This will be Stanford Stadium’s last home game before undergoing a major renovation. Keith Jackson draws the coverage instead of Brent Cheeseburger.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Tampa Bay 20 (-3) Chicago 13. The Bucs have won 2 straight with QB Chris Simms after 2 duds. The Bears are on a roll, 7-3 with a 2 game lead in the NFC North.
1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+3) Washington 20. The Chargers are on a roll, winning 3 in a row to get to 6-4 in the top heavy AFC. TE Antonio Gates left last week’s game with an injured ankle and is a game-time decision. Washington has lost 2 straight tough games to Tampa Bay and Oakland to fall behind Dallas and New York in the NFC East. Both of these teams need this game to stay near the top of the Wild Card race.
1:00 CBS HD New England 30 (+3) Kansas City 27. The Chiefs have Larry Johnson playing RB in place of an injured Priest Holmes. The Patriots will have Patrick Pass or Heath Evans playing RB in place of an injured Corey Dillon. The Chiefs’ defense started out strong but has reverted to its 2003 form. The Patriots have LB Tedy Bruschi back on the field from an off-season stroke but haven’t been much better than the Chiefs in recent weeks. Patriot QB Tom Brady is carrying more of the load this season due to all of the injuries suffered by his teammates. His clutch play tips my pick New England’s way.
4:15 FOX HD Seattle 24 (-4 ½) N.Y. Giants 17. The national audience will get a chance to view Seachickens RB Shaun Alexander. His numbers have been good, not great against NFL-caliber defenses of Dallas and Washington.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 New Orleans 20 (-2) N.Y. Jets 6. This game was scheduled for prime time back in March. Both of these teams are 2-8. The Jets had Brooks Bollinger, Vinny Testaverde, and Kliff Klingsbury play QB last week in a 27-0 loss at Denver. I don’t know why, but they only ran the ball 7 times over the course of the entire game! With the 3 afore mentioned players at quarterback, I think 7 passes for the entire game would have been more appropriate.
9:00 ABC HD Indianapolis 31 (-8) Pittsburgh 21. The Colts are hitting on all cylinders while the Steelers are dealing with significant injuries. QB Ben Roethlisberger returns from knee surgery. RBs Jerome Bettis, Fast Willie Parker, and Duce Staley have all missed recent games due to injury. It looks like its Parker’s turn to play this weekend. I just can’t see the Steelers offense staying with the Colts in this one. Maybe a month from now if all of the key players are in better health.
Texas survived a battle at Texas A&M to stay on target for a Rose Bowl date with USC. They don’t know who they’re playing yet since Colorado forgot to show up for their game against Nebraska. Even a clock operator’s lazy trigger at the end of the first half couldn’t slow the Huskers. The officiating crew must have been big fans of White Sox C A.J. Pierzinski during the ALCS, allowing the participant to pass judgment.
Type/Many Weeks Ago/Season
NCAA/1-0/10-4
NFL/3-1/17-16-1
Invest/+2*/-2.7*
INVEST
*Cleveland 13 @ Minnesota 10 (under 39). Neither of these offenses is particularly good at throwing the football. Both QBs, Dilfer (Cle) and Johnson (Min) aren’t going to take chances that could result in interceptions and short fields for the opposing offense. Somehow the Vikings have rebounded from a 2-5 start, the boat party, and the loss of starting QB Daunte Culpepper to climb back into the NFC playoff race. When will they turn into the real Vikings and disappoint their fans?
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
12:30 FSN Iowa State 19 (-2 ½) Kansas 13. I don’t know a thing about either team, but the Cyclones could earn a berth in the Big 12 Championship game with a win here.
5:00 ABC Notre Dame 38 (-16 ½) Stanford 20. The Irish can lock in their first BCS appearance since 2001 and generate the revenue necessary to pay HC Charlie Weis’ contract extension. This will be Stanford Stadium’s last home game before undergoing a major renovation. Keith Jackson draws the coverage instead of Brent Cheeseburger.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Tampa Bay 20 (-3) Chicago 13. The Bucs have won 2 straight with QB Chris Simms after 2 duds. The Bears are on a roll, 7-3 with a 2 game lead in the NFC North.
1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+3) Washington 20. The Chargers are on a roll, winning 3 in a row to get to 6-4 in the top heavy AFC. TE Antonio Gates left last week’s game with an injured ankle and is a game-time decision. Washington has lost 2 straight tough games to Tampa Bay and Oakland to fall behind Dallas and New York in the NFC East. Both of these teams need this game to stay near the top of the Wild Card race.
1:00 CBS HD New England 30 (+3) Kansas City 27. The Chiefs have Larry Johnson playing RB in place of an injured Priest Holmes. The Patriots will have Patrick Pass or Heath Evans playing RB in place of an injured Corey Dillon. The Chiefs’ defense started out strong but has reverted to its 2003 form. The Patriots have LB Tedy Bruschi back on the field from an off-season stroke but haven’t been much better than the Chiefs in recent weeks. Patriot QB Tom Brady is carrying more of the load this season due to all of the injuries suffered by his teammates. His clutch play tips my pick New England’s way.
4:15 FOX HD Seattle 24 (-4 ½) N.Y. Giants 17. The national audience will get a chance to view Seachickens RB Shaun Alexander. His numbers have been good, not great against NFL-caliber defenses of Dallas and Washington.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 New Orleans 20 (-2) N.Y. Jets 6. This game was scheduled for prime time back in March. Both of these teams are 2-8. The Jets had Brooks Bollinger, Vinny Testaverde, and Kliff Klingsbury play QB last week in a 27-0 loss at Denver. I don’t know why, but they only ran the ball 7 times over the course of the entire game! With the 3 afore mentioned players at quarterback, I think 7 passes for the entire game would have been more appropriate.
9:00 ABC HD Indianapolis 31 (-8) Pittsburgh 21. The Colts are hitting on all cylinders while the Steelers are dealing with significant injuries. QB Ben Roethlisberger returns from knee surgery. RBs Jerome Bettis, Fast Willie Parker, and Duce Staley have all missed recent games due to injury. It looks like its Parker’s turn to play this weekend. I just can’t see the Steelers offense staying with the Colts in this one. Maybe a month from now if all of the key players are in better health.
Monday, November 14, 2005
NFC North 4-0?
Yes, the NFC North went 4-0 yesterday, with Green Bay and Minnesota springing road upsets at division leading Atlanta and New York (Giants) while Detroit and Chicago won over cellar-dwelling Arizona and San Francisco. It was really windy in Chicago, but the 49er passing game was atrocious. QB Cody Pickett was 1 for 13 for 28 yards with an interception. One completion in 60 minutes of football? The 49ers best offensive play was a punt, as Chicago return man Bobby Wade fumbled 3 punts and the 49ers recovered them all, including one at the Bears’ 3. Two plays netted two yards, then 2 penalties (12-man huddle, false start) put the 49ers into an impossible 3rd and 11 situation. Incomplete pass was the obvious 3rd-down outcome for the 49ers.
The Bears have won 5 straight to put a stranglehold on the NFC North but now will face 4 real NFL teams in the next 5 weeks (CAR, @TB, GB, @PIT, ATL). It’s important to let the teams that will defeat themselves do just that (i.e. MIN, BAL, DET, NO, SF). Now the Bears face the more difficult task of winning games on their own (Hint: Leave the orange jerseys in the closet!)
Steve Spurrier now has victories over Tennessee and Florida in his first season at South Carolina. Things are getting interesting in the SEC East. Alabama wasn’t able to muster enough offense against LSU, the Tigers to be really upset since the only blemish on their record is a 30-27 come from ahead loss to a below average Tennessee team.
Philadelphia Eagles 2005: RIP. They were game for 56 minutes building a 20-7 lead; then gave up a 42 TD second drive. On their ensuing possession QB Donovan McNabb was intercepted by S Roy Williams who returned it for a touchdown. McNabb appeared to aggravate his hernia injury (between the INT return and an earlier 4th quarter scramble) and sat out the final drive that only reached the Dallas 43 yard line. The Eagles ran the ball very successfully with both Brian Westbrook and Lamar Gordon but couldn’t hold the lead. They have now lost 3 straight to fall into the NFC East cellar and are 0-3 in the division.
The Bears have won 5 straight to put a stranglehold on the NFC North but now will face 4 real NFL teams in the next 5 weeks (CAR, @TB, GB, @PIT, ATL). It’s important to let the teams that will defeat themselves do just that (i.e. MIN, BAL, DET, NO, SF). Now the Bears face the more difficult task of winning games on their own (Hint: Leave the orange jerseys in the closet!)
Steve Spurrier now has victories over Tennessee and Florida in his first season at South Carolina. Things are getting interesting in the SEC East. Alabama wasn’t able to muster enough offense against LSU, the Tigers to be really upset since the only blemish on their record is a 30-27 come from ahead loss to a below average Tennessee team.
Philadelphia Eagles 2005: RIP. They were game for 56 minutes building a 20-7 lead; then gave up a 42 TD second drive. On their ensuing possession QB Donovan McNabb was intercepted by S Roy Williams who returned it for a touchdown. McNabb appeared to aggravate his hernia injury (between the INT return and an earlier 4th quarter scramble) and sat out the final drive that only reached the Dallas 43 yard line. The Eagles ran the ball very successfully with both Brian Westbrook and Lamar Gordon but couldn’t hold the lead. They have now lost 3 straight to fall into the NFC East cellar and are 0-3 in the division.
Friday, November 04, 2005
Hurricanes and Hokies
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/2-0/9-4
NFL/2-4/14-15-1
Invest/-2*/-4.7*
INVEST
Somehow the Bengals were only able to turn 5 interceptions of Packers QB Brett Favre into 21 points.. no missed field goals, only 1 turnover of their own, 22 offensive first downs, ouch. Cincinnat is 3-for-3 in intercepting NFC North QB’s 5 times this season; I’ll be looking for a proposition when they play the Lions to make it 4 for 4 with Joey Harrington back at the helm for an injured Jeff Garcia!
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**7:45 ESPN HD. #6 Miami 17 (+6 ½) #3 Virginia Tech 20. The Hurricanes have rebounded from the opening 10-7 loss to Florida State to climb to the highest ranking of the 1-loss teams. QB Kyle Wright posted solid passing stats after the FSU game until last week against North Carolina, but I attribute that to the Notre-Dame style alternate gold-green uniforms the Canes wore. Virginia Tech QB Marcus Vick is leading a balanced attack, and is more disciplined in the pocket than his brother, Michael. The Hokies haven’t had a close game since their opening game against N.C. State (20-16) but the Hurricanes defense will be their toughest test of the season to date.
#1 USC faces Stanford at 7:00 on TBS. The Cardinal had undefeated UCLA on the ropes last week (ahead 24-3 with 8 minutes to play) but couldn’t hold the lead, losing 30-27 in overtime. #2 Texas is at Baylor, #4 Alabama visits Mississippi State (3:30 CBS), and #5 UCLA visits Arizona in non-national TV games in conference play.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Carolina (-1 ½) 22 Tampa Bay 10. Chris Simms replaced Brian Griese (knee injury) at QB and the Bucs lost to the Division I-A 49ers last week. The Panthers only beat the Lions by 1 on the road a few weeks ago, but QB Jake Delhomme will limit his TD passes to Carolina players this week. Tampa Bay needs to get RB Cadillac Williams healthy… then evaluate QB Chris Simms’ play.
1:00 CBS HD Oakland 26 (+4 ½) Kansas City 24. The Chiefs’ offense isn’t in gear this season and the Raiders have found the key component to their offense… run the ball with RB Lamont Jordan. It’s too bad for CBS that the 49ers are at home and they can’t move the start time of this game to the 4:15 doubleheader slot. There is one national game on the CBS schedule: 1-6 Green Bay hosting 5-2 Pittsburgh, which will be without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee surgery).
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Washington 27 (-3) Philadelphia 22. The Redskins played poorly last week in New York, but the Eagles did the same in Denver. QB Donovan McNabb started 0-12 with 1 interception. McNabb scrambled once and RB Brian Westbrook had 1 carry while the Broncos jumped out to a 28-0 lead. I would have loved to have seen a montage of the incompletes on PrimeTime! The Eagles are battling through injuries to McNabb (ribs, hernia) and WR Terrell Owens (ankle). I wonder if the fans in Philly have adopted Bostonian’s “That’s Manny being Manny” with respect to T.O. This week’s press comments by Owens about his injuries, McNabb, Brett Favre, etc. might just be the way he expresses his frustrations, but it isn’t that entertaining. T.O. certainly sounds like a kindergartner. Owens has always played at a top level, and McNabb still throws to him because he values winning above T.O.’s public antics. The Eagles need to get things in order on the defensive side of the football. The Redskins played horribly in the Meadowlands last week against a super-charged Giants team. They will be jacked up for this one, playing at home on national TV under the lights. RBs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts should be able to run successfully against the Eagles; and WR Santana Moss is outperforming every WR not named Steve Smith in the NFC this season.
9:00 ABC HD New England 30 (+3) Indianapolis 24. The Colts haven’t gotten this monkey off of their backs yet. They’re 7-0 but have faced only 1 quality opponent (Jacksonville) while the 4-3 Patriots faced Carolina, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Atlanta, and Denver… in succession. Indy QB Peyton Manning hasn’t won in New England and while this Patriots defense isn’t Super Bowl caliber right now, it will be physical in the all over the field. Manning tends to throw the ball into the middle of the field late against the Patriots… a huge mistake with playmakers like LB Tedy Bruschi and S Rodney Harrison in coverage. Even though Harrison is out with a knee injury, his replacement will know to watch the middle of the field late. Those have been key components of New England’s strategy through the years in this rivalry, and I’m picking the Patriots until the Colts win one of these games on the field. The Packers didn’t beat the Troy-Emmitt-Michael Cowboys of the ‘90s… they won the Super Bowl after Carolina took out a weakened Dallas squad. The Colts might need that assistance this season… the Patriots might end up as the #3 or #4 seed in the playoffs this season.
NCAA/2-0/9-4
NFL/2-4/14-15-1
Invest/-2*/-4.7*
INVEST
Somehow the Bengals were only able to turn 5 interceptions of Packers QB Brett Favre into 21 points.. no missed field goals, only 1 turnover of their own, 22 offensive first downs, ouch. Cincinnat is 3-for-3 in intercepting NFC North QB’s 5 times this season; I’ll be looking for a proposition when they play the Lions to make it 4 for 4 with Joey Harrington back at the helm for an injured Jeff Garcia!
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**7:45 ESPN HD. #6 Miami 17 (+6 ½) #3 Virginia Tech 20. The Hurricanes have rebounded from the opening 10-7 loss to Florida State to climb to the highest ranking of the 1-loss teams. QB Kyle Wright posted solid passing stats after the FSU game until last week against North Carolina, but I attribute that to the Notre-Dame style alternate gold-green uniforms the Canes wore. Virginia Tech QB Marcus Vick is leading a balanced attack, and is more disciplined in the pocket than his brother, Michael. The Hokies haven’t had a close game since their opening game against N.C. State (20-16) but the Hurricanes defense will be their toughest test of the season to date.
#1 USC faces Stanford at 7:00 on TBS. The Cardinal had undefeated UCLA on the ropes last week (ahead 24-3 with 8 minutes to play) but couldn’t hold the lead, losing 30-27 in overtime. #2 Texas is at Baylor, #4 Alabama visits Mississippi State (3:30 CBS), and #5 UCLA visits Arizona in non-national TV games in conference play.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Carolina (-1 ½) 22 Tampa Bay 10. Chris Simms replaced Brian Griese (knee injury) at QB and the Bucs lost to the Division I-A 49ers last week. The Panthers only beat the Lions by 1 on the road a few weeks ago, but QB Jake Delhomme will limit his TD passes to Carolina players this week. Tampa Bay needs to get RB Cadillac Williams healthy… then evaluate QB Chris Simms’ play.
1:00 CBS HD Oakland 26 (+4 ½) Kansas City 24. The Chiefs’ offense isn’t in gear this season and the Raiders have found the key component to their offense… run the ball with RB Lamont Jordan. It’s too bad for CBS that the 49ers are at home and they can’t move the start time of this game to the 4:15 doubleheader slot. There is one national game on the CBS schedule: 1-6 Green Bay hosting 5-2 Pittsburgh, which will be without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee surgery).
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Washington 27 (-3) Philadelphia 22. The Redskins played poorly last week in New York, but the Eagles did the same in Denver. QB Donovan McNabb started 0-12 with 1 interception. McNabb scrambled once and RB Brian Westbrook had 1 carry while the Broncos jumped out to a 28-0 lead. I would have loved to have seen a montage of the incompletes on PrimeTime! The Eagles are battling through injuries to McNabb (ribs, hernia) and WR Terrell Owens (ankle). I wonder if the fans in Philly have adopted Bostonian’s “That’s Manny being Manny” with respect to T.O. This week’s press comments by Owens about his injuries, McNabb, Brett Favre, etc. might just be the way he expresses his frustrations, but it isn’t that entertaining. T.O. certainly sounds like a kindergartner. Owens has always played at a top level, and McNabb still throws to him because he values winning above T.O.’s public antics. The Eagles need to get things in order on the defensive side of the football. The Redskins played horribly in the Meadowlands last week against a super-charged Giants team. They will be jacked up for this one, playing at home on national TV under the lights. RBs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts should be able to run successfully against the Eagles; and WR Santana Moss is outperforming every WR not named Steve Smith in the NFC this season.
9:00 ABC HD New England 30 (+3) Indianapolis 24. The Colts haven’t gotten this monkey off of their backs yet. They’re 7-0 but have faced only 1 quality opponent (Jacksonville) while the 4-3 Patriots faced Carolina, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Atlanta, and Denver… in succession. Indy QB Peyton Manning hasn’t won in New England and while this Patriots defense isn’t Super Bowl caliber right now, it will be physical in the all over the field. Manning tends to throw the ball into the middle of the field late against the Patriots… a huge mistake with playmakers like LB Tedy Bruschi and S Rodney Harrison in coverage. Even though Harrison is out with a knee injury, his replacement will know to watch the middle of the field late. Those have been key components of New England’s strategy through the years in this rivalry, and I’m picking the Patriots until the Colts win one of these games on the field. The Packers didn’t beat the Troy-Emmitt-Michael Cowboys of the ‘90s… they won the Super Bowl after Carolina took out a weakened Dallas squad. The Colts might need that assistance this season… the Patriots might end up as the #3 or #4 seed in the playoffs this season.
Saturday, October 29, 2005
Bengals back in their comfort zone
Pitchers and Catchers in 4 months, give or take a week. Batting Practice for the Astros is scheduled for Monday at 1:00. I don’t know why Garner only bunted his runners to second base. His guys proved they couldn’t get a hit with a runner in scoring position. Worse, the probability of strikeouts increased (exponentially, it seemed) as a runner moved around the bases. They needed to bunt or steal all the way around .
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-1/8-5
NFL/0-5-1/13-16-1
Invest/0*/-2.5*
INVEST
**Cincinnati 31 (-9) Green Bay 21. The Packers offense is reduced to QB Brett Favre and WR Donald Driver. WR Javon Walker and RBs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport are all out for the season. Walker’s replacement was Robert Ferguson. He’s out 4-6 weeks now. The Bengals have lost 2 in a row, but both were to solid AFC teams (@ Jacksonville, Pittsburgh). Now they get back to their comfort zone (they defeated Minnesota and Chicago by a combined 61-15 tally) playing against NFC North foes. The risk in this investment is that the Bengals are without a couple of starters in their secondary, so Green Bay could engineer a back-door cover like they did against Carolina on Monday Night a few weeks ago.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
3:30 CBS HD #19 Florida 16 (-4) #13 Georgia 10. Unbeaten Georgia starts Joe Tereshinski at QB following the loss of D.J. Shockley to injury. The Bulldogs have struggled against the Gators in Jacksonville, losing 13 of 15. Florida’s new spread offense has struggled against the better SEC defenses, so I expect this game to be a low-scoring affair.
The other undefeated teams aren’t expecting much opposition but can’t afford to suffer a loss. #1 Texas and #2 Southern Cal play winless (in conference) foes this week. Texas plays Oklahoma State on TBS at 7:00 while SC plays Washington St. on ABC (Regional) at 3:30. #5 Alabama hosts Utah State (2-4, 1-3 in WAC) and UCLA visits Stanford (4-2, 3-1 Pac-10) which has recovered nicely from an embarrassing loss to new I-A member UC-Davis. Those games aren’t available on any of the national broadcast or cable outlets.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Detroit 19 (-3) Chicago 9. If this game doesn’t end in a tie, an NFC North team will have a winning record for the first time since the opening week. Detroit has turned over to the reigns to QB Jeff Garcia who led the team to a 13-10 road victory at Cleveland. His most important stat: 0 interceptions. Demoted QB Joey Harrington threw 5 in the week 2 meeting between these two teams. Bears rookie QB Kyle Orton has done well protecting the football, but I’m not ready to pick the Bears on the road just yet.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 New England 30 (-9) Buffalo 13. The Patriots pulled an NFC North maneuver last week, moving into sole possession of first place by having a bye. They may get LB Tedy Bruschi back from a stroke for this game; their defense is playing like the 2002 edition and not the Super Bowl Championship units. The Pats can’t afford to look ahead to next Monday’s marquee game against the Colts, instead they need to bury their AFC East opponents in order to restore order and prepare for a playoff run, which will include road games. In Belichick I Trust.
9:00 ABC HD Pittsburgh 20 (-10) Baltimore 3. The Steelers earned an impressive victory against the Bengals last week and have the opportunity to bury the Ravens this week. Baltimore is without S Ed Reed and QB Kyle Boller. While Boller may not be even an adequate QB, backup Anthony Wright isn’t at that level. LB Ray Lewis and RB Jamal Lewis are slowed by injuries. The Steelers power running game will face more resistance this week, but QB Ben Roethlisberger’s presence will prevent the Ravens from stacking the line solely against the run.
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (-2 ½) Washington 21. Both of these teams are off to stronger than expected starts and could maintain their pace for the course of the season. Giants QB Eli Manning is directing a strong offense, even if it has slowed the past 2 weeks (against good defenses). The Redskins were playing great offense before posting 52 points on the Division I-A 49ers. QB Mark Brunell is playing like it is 1999 again. WR Santana Moss is making the offseason trade of #1 WR’s with the Jets (for Laverneus Coles) look like the biggest ripoff since the Cowboys-Vikings Herschel Walker trade (well, almost).
4:00 CBS HD Kansas City 24 (+6) San Diego 26. This game probably won’t have more than a few punts, but I’m not sure that the score will get up into the 30’s. Chargers HC Marty Schottenheimer is more comfortable with scores in the teens or twenties. Both teams will run the ball with their All-Pro runners, Holmes for the Chiefs and Tomlinson for the Chargers. That will keep the game clock moving and keep the number of plays low. While Chiefs HC Vermiel is associated with high-powered offenses in his return to the NFL (StL and KC), it is Mike Martz who is pass-heavy. The Rams ran the ball a lot more last week when Martz wasn’t on the sidelines.
4:15 FOX HD Denver 31 (-3 ½) Philadelphia 20. The Broncos have to be stinging mad after losing a 23-10 4th quarter lead in the Meadowlands to the Giants last week. The week before New England scored 17 unanswered second-half points to place the outcome in doubt until the end. Once, an isolated incident. Twice, a trend. Three times, bad things happen. The Broncos will use their punishing ground game with RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell to control the line of scrimmage. They’ll probably call more running plays on 1 drive than the Eagles will call all game.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-1/8-5
NFL/0-5-1/13-16-1
Invest/0*/-2.5*
INVEST
**Cincinnati 31 (-9) Green Bay 21. The Packers offense is reduced to QB Brett Favre and WR Donald Driver. WR Javon Walker and RBs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport are all out for the season. Walker’s replacement was Robert Ferguson. He’s out 4-6 weeks now. The Bengals have lost 2 in a row, but both were to solid AFC teams (@ Jacksonville, Pittsburgh). Now they get back to their comfort zone (they defeated Minnesota and Chicago by a combined 61-15 tally) playing against NFC North foes. The risk in this investment is that the Bengals are without a couple of starters in their secondary, so Green Bay could engineer a back-door cover like they did against Carolina on Monday Night a few weeks ago.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
3:30 CBS HD #19 Florida 16 (-4) #13 Georgia 10. Unbeaten Georgia starts Joe Tereshinski at QB following the loss of D.J. Shockley to injury. The Bulldogs have struggled against the Gators in Jacksonville, losing 13 of 15. Florida’s new spread offense has struggled against the better SEC defenses, so I expect this game to be a low-scoring affair.
The other undefeated teams aren’t expecting much opposition but can’t afford to suffer a loss. #1 Texas and #2 Southern Cal play winless (in conference) foes this week. Texas plays Oklahoma State on TBS at 7:00 while SC plays Washington St. on ABC (Regional) at 3:30. #5 Alabama hosts Utah State (2-4, 1-3 in WAC) and UCLA visits Stanford (4-2, 3-1 Pac-10) which has recovered nicely from an embarrassing loss to new I-A member UC-Davis. Those games aren’t available on any of the national broadcast or cable outlets.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Detroit 19 (-3) Chicago 9. If this game doesn’t end in a tie, an NFC North team will have a winning record for the first time since the opening week. Detroit has turned over to the reigns to QB Jeff Garcia who led the team to a 13-10 road victory at Cleveland. His most important stat: 0 interceptions. Demoted QB Joey Harrington threw 5 in the week 2 meeting between these two teams. Bears rookie QB Kyle Orton has done well protecting the football, but I’m not ready to pick the Bears on the road just yet.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 New England 30 (-9) Buffalo 13. The Patriots pulled an NFC North maneuver last week, moving into sole possession of first place by having a bye. They may get LB Tedy Bruschi back from a stroke for this game; their defense is playing like the 2002 edition and not the Super Bowl Championship units. The Pats can’t afford to look ahead to next Monday’s marquee game against the Colts, instead they need to bury their AFC East opponents in order to restore order and prepare for a playoff run, which will include road games. In Belichick I Trust.
9:00 ABC HD Pittsburgh 20 (-10) Baltimore 3. The Steelers earned an impressive victory against the Bengals last week and have the opportunity to bury the Ravens this week. Baltimore is without S Ed Reed and QB Kyle Boller. While Boller may not be even an adequate QB, backup Anthony Wright isn’t at that level. LB Ray Lewis and RB Jamal Lewis are slowed by injuries. The Steelers power running game will face more resistance this week, but QB Ben Roethlisberger’s presence will prevent the Ravens from stacking the line solely against the run.
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (-2 ½) Washington 21. Both of these teams are off to stronger than expected starts and could maintain their pace for the course of the season. Giants QB Eli Manning is directing a strong offense, even if it has slowed the past 2 weeks (against good defenses). The Redskins were playing great offense before posting 52 points on the Division I-A 49ers. QB Mark Brunell is playing like it is 1999 again. WR Santana Moss is making the offseason trade of #1 WR’s with the Jets (for Laverneus Coles) look like the biggest ripoff since the Cowboys-Vikings Herschel Walker trade (well, almost).
4:00 CBS HD Kansas City 24 (+6) San Diego 26. This game probably won’t have more than a few punts, but I’m not sure that the score will get up into the 30’s. Chargers HC Marty Schottenheimer is more comfortable with scores in the teens or twenties. Both teams will run the ball with their All-Pro runners, Holmes for the Chiefs and Tomlinson for the Chargers. That will keep the game clock moving and keep the number of plays low. While Chiefs HC Vermiel is associated with high-powered offenses in his return to the NFL (StL and KC), it is Mike Martz who is pass-heavy. The Rams ran the ball a lot more last week when Martz wasn’t on the sidelines.
4:15 FOX HD Denver 31 (-3 ½) Philadelphia 20. The Broncos have to be stinging mad after losing a 23-10 4th quarter lead in the Meadowlands to the Giants last week. The week before New England scored 17 unanswered second-half points to place the outcome in doubt until the end. Once, an isolated incident. Twice, a trend. Three times, bad things happen. The Broncos will use their punishing ground game with RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell to control the line of scrimmage. They’ll probably call more running plays on 1 drive than the Eagles will call all game.
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
The Titanic isn't limited to the Vikings... the Packers are onboard too!
I think that was A. J. Pierzsynski in body paint batting for Jermaine Dye Sunday night. FOX Analyst Tim McCarver said that the HP umpire probably went by sound on the call… guess the rain hardened Dye’s arm into ash.
Too good to be true… the Packers lost to the Vikings 23-20, failig to cover the points after being up 17-0 at the half. To make matters worse, they lost RB Ahman Green for the season to a leg injury in the 2nd half. The Seachickens were just that for about 58 minutes, then scored a TD on offense and set up the winning FG on defense by putting a strong pass rush in Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe’s face to pull out a push (though the line did move to 5 points on game day).
THURSDAY
7:30 ESPN HD #3 Virginia Tech (-14) 34 #14 Boston College 17. The former Big East opponents meet in Blacksburg. The Hokies are a distant third to Texas and USC in the BCS Standings but do have the opportunity to make up some extra ground on the Trojans in the ACC Championship Game. The conference title game gives teams from the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 an edge over the Big 11, Pac 10, and Big lEast teams. This VT team is QB'd by Mike Vick's brother, Marcus, so VT again stands for Vick's Team. The Hokies are coming off a mauling of Maryland 28-9 last week while the Eagles may have been looking ahead to this game while playing Wake Forest 2 weeks ago. Boston College needed 2 TD's in the last 2 1/2 minutes to pull out a 35-30 victory. The Eagles lost 28-17 to Florida State in their one game this season against a ranked opponent.
Too good to be true… the Packers lost to the Vikings 23-20, failig to cover the points after being up 17-0 at the half. To make matters worse, they lost RB Ahman Green for the season to a leg injury in the 2nd half. The Seachickens were just that for about 58 minutes, then scored a TD on offense and set up the winning FG on defense by putting a strong pass rush in Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe’s face to pull out a push (though the line did move to 5 points on game day).
THURSDAY
7:30 ESPN HD #3 Virginia Tech (-14) 34 #14 Boston College 17. The former Big East opponents meet in Blacksburg. The Hokies are a distant third to Texas and USC in the BCS Standings but do have the opportunity to make up some extra ground on the Trojans in the ACC Championship Game. The conference title game gives teams from the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 an edge over the Big 11, Pac 10, and Big lEast teams. This VT team is QB'd by Mike Vick's brother, Marcus, so VT again stands for Vick's Team. The Hokies are coming off a mauling of Maryland 28-9 last week while the Eagles may have been looking ahead to this game while playing Wake Forest 2 weeks ago. Boston College needed 2 TD's in the last 2 1/2 minutes to pull out a 35-30 victory. The Eagles lost 28-17 to Florida State in their one game this season against a ranked opponent.
Saturday, October 22, 2005
Seachickens to Avenge Last Year's Monday Night Disaster
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-0/7-4
(Before MNF) NFL/2-3-1/12-11-1
Invest/+2*/-2.5*
INVEST
Notre Dame played a great game against Southern Cal but came up just short at the end. They almost got QB Matt Leinart down inbounds in the final seconds. Then they had a good defensive alignment called against the QB sneak but Leinart was able to slide left with the assistance of RB Reggie Bush and get into the endzone for the winning touchdown. Bush assisted Leinart, but not in an egregious manner that would have drawn a flag. A rules revision could be justified anyway. Since multiple defenders can tackle the ballcarrier, why shouldn’t offensive players be allowed to help the ballcarrier in a “pile” situation?
I’m tempted to take Green Bay over the NFL’s fastest sinking ship, Mike Tice’s Vikings, but it just looks too good to be true.
*Seattle (-3) 27 Dallas 20. The Cowboys just played 2 games against division opponents while the Seachickens didn’t let down too much against the lowly Texans after a road victory over the Rams. WR Joe Jurevicious has been a great pickup for the Seachickens and RB Shawn Alexander is the NFL’s TD leader. This time the defense will hold the Cowboys to less than 2 TDs in the last 2 minutes.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
3:30 CBS HD #5 Alabama (-3 ½) 20 #19 Tennessee 13. The Tide squeaked by Ole Miss 13-10 with a game-winning field goal as time expired. This is the second of 4 games against ranked SEC teams. Alabama rolled over Florida 31-3 earlier this month but lost WR Tyrone Prothro to a knee injury late in the game. Tennessee’s running game has struggled in losses to Florida and Georgia and the Vols will need balance to win this rivalry game.
3:30 ABC Regional #2 Texas #7 45 (-16 ½) Texas Tech 24. The Longhorns got the big gorilla off of their back earlier this month with a 45-12 rout of Oklahoma. Texas Tech and Texas A&M are the two toughest remaining opponents on the regular season schedule. The Red Raiders have a potent offense, but were mauled 51-21 by the Longhorns last season.
8:00 FOX HD World Series Game 1. I have a hard time rooting for A. J. Pierzinski. I’ll take the Astros since SP Roy Oswalt and RP Brad Lidge were stalwarts on my champion fantasy baseball team.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Green Bay 37 (-2) Minnesota 0. The Vikings ship is sinking faster than the Titanic, but not fast enough for the corporate NFL. It’s scary to think that WR Randy Moss was one of the good guys holding that group together.
1:00 CBS HD Cincinnati 26 (-1) Pittsburgh 20. The Bengals are favored over the Steelers for the first time in 27 meetings! The Steelers saw enough of QB Tommy Maddox last week to bring Ben Roethlisberger back early from a knee injury. They’ll need better QB performance to get their running game back in gear. RB Willie Parker didn’t do much against Jacksonville with the Jaguar defense unafraid of Maddox’s throwing capabilities. The Bengals are off to a great start behind 3rd year QB Carson Palmer, RB Rudi Johnson, and WR Chad Johnson.
1:00 CBS Philadelphia 27 (-4) San Diego 20. The Chargers can’t win against both of last year’s Super Bowl teams on the road in the same month, can they? The Eagles really need this one coming off a rout at Dallas and a bye.
4:00 FOX HD. Seattle (-3) 27 Dallas 20.
4:15 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2) Denver 20. The Giants will force Broncos QB Jake Plummer to make some plays with his arm, and some interceptions will result.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime
8:00 FOX HD. World Series Game 2.
9:00 ABC HD N.Y. Jets 20 (+7) Atlanta 24. Mike Vick or Vinny T. as QB?
NCAA/1-0/7-4
(Before MNF) NFL/2-3-1/12-11-1
Invest/+2*/-2.5*
INVEST
Notre Dame played a great game against Southern Cal but came up just short at the end. They almost got QB Matt Leinart down inbounds in the final seconds. Then they had a good defensive alignment called against the QB sneak but Leinart was able to slide left with the assistance of RB Reggie Bush and get into the endzone for the winning touchdown. Bush assisted Leinart, but not in an egregious manner that would have drawn a flag. A rules revision could be justified anyway. Since multiple defenders can tackle the ballcarrier, why shouldn’t offensive players be allowed to help the ballcarrier in a “pile” situation?
I’m tempted to take Green Bay over the NFL’s fastest sinking ship, Mike Tice’s Vikings, but it just looks too good to be true.
*Seattle (-3) 27 Dallas 20. The Cowboys just played 2 games against division opponents while the Seachickens didn’t let down too much against the lowly Texans after a road victory over the Rams. WR Joe Jurevicious has been a great pickup for the Seachickens and RB Shawn Alexander is the NFL’s TD leader. This time the defense will hold the Cowboys to less than 2 TDs in the last 2 minutes.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
3:30 CBS HD #5 Alabama (-3 ½) 20 #19 Tennessee 13. The Tide squeaked by Ole Miss 13-10 with a game-winning field goal as time expired. This is the second of 4 games against ranked SEC teams. Alabama rolled over Florida 31-3 earlier this month but lost WR Tyrone Prothro to a knee injury late in the game. Tennessee’s running game has struggled in losses to Florida and Georgia and the Vols will need balance to win this rivalry game.
3:30 ABC Regional #2 Texas #7 45 (-16 ½) Texas Tech 24. The Longhorns got the big gorilla off of their back earlier this month with a 45-12 rout of Oklahoma. Texas Tech and Texas A&M are the two toughest remaining opponents on the regular season schedule. The Red Raiders have a potent offense, but were mauled 51-21 by the Longhorns last season.
8:00 FOX HD World Series Game 1. I have a hard time rooting for A. J. Pierzinski. I’ll take the Astros since SP Roy Oswalt and RP Brad Lidge were stalwarts on my champion fantasy baseball team.
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Green Bay 37 (-2) Minnesota 0. The Vikings ship is sinking faster than the Titanic, but not fast enough for the corporate NFL. It’s scary to think that WR Randy Moss was one of the good guys holding that group together.
1:00 CBS HD Cincinnati 26 (-1) Pittsburgh 20. The Bengals are favored over the Steelers for the first time in 27 meetings! The Steelers saw enough of QB Tommy Maddox last week to bring Ben Roethlisberger back early from a knee injury. They’ll need better QB performance to get their running game back in gear. RB Willie Parker didn’t do much against Jacksonville with the Jaguar defense unafraid of Maddox’s throwing capabilities. The Bengals are off to a great start behind 3rd year QB Carson Palmer, RB Rudi Johnson, and WR Chad Johnson.
1:00 CBS Philadelphia 27 (-4) San Diego 20. The Chargers can’t win against both of last year’s Super Bowl teams on the road in the same month, can they? The Eagles really need this one coming off a rout at Dallas and a bye.
4:00 FOX HD. Seattle (-3) 27 Dallas 20.
4:15 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2) Denver 20. The Giants will force Broncos QB Jake Plummer to make some plays with his arm, and some interceptions will result.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime
8:00 FOX HD. World Series Game 2.
9:00 ABC HD N.Y. Jets 20 (+7) Atlanta 24. Mike Vick or Vinny T. as QB?
Thursday, October 20, 2005
Who Needs a Bullpen?
The White Sox finished off the Angels in 5 games with their starting pitchers recording all but 2 outs! The Angels were behind early in most games and also got themselves behind in the count during most at-bats.
The NLCS Umpires wanted some attention too. I didn’t get to see Game 4 (due to the Millerpalooza Wedding) but the pitch that Cardinals Manager Tony LaRussa chose to be ejected on looked to be clearly inside. But the Jim Edmonds ejection was uncalled for. That pitch looked inside and Edmonds claimed only to ask for information on the call, not to argue it. The umpires should not decide games, and forcing a team to send a pinch hitter up with a 3-2 count amounts to the umpires deciding games.
WR Randy Moss obviously wasn’t the only bad apple in the Minnesota Vikings locker room. If the NFC North wasn’t so bad, HC Mike Tice would be gone by now. But the hapless Vikings are only 1 game behind divison-leading Detroit and Chicago. Those teams’ QB’s have something like 5 road wins in their careers. After Green Bay wins at the Dome, then Tice might get sent packing. That would leave the Vikings at 1-5, and that might be too much to overcome even in the lackluster NFC North.
The NLCS Umpires wanted some attention too. I didn’t get to see Game 4 (due to the Millerpalooza Wedding) but the pitch that Cardinals Manager Tony LaRussa chose to be ejected on looked to be clearly inside. But the Jim Edmonds ejection was uncalled for. That pitch looked inside and Edmonds claimed only to ask for information on the call, not to argue it. The umpires should not decide games, and forcing a team to send a pinch hitter up with a 3-2 count amounts to the umpires deciding games.
WR Randy Moss obviously wasn’t the only bad apple in the Minnesota Vikings locker room. If the NFC North wasn’t so bad, HC Mike Tice would be gone by now. But the hapless Vikings are only 1 game behind divison-leading Detroit and Chicago. Those teams’ QB’s have something like 5 road wins in their careers. After Green Bay wins at the Dome, then Tice might get sent packing. That would leave the Vikings at 1-5, and that might be too much to overcome even in the lackluster NFC North.
Saturday, October 15, 2005
A. J. Pierszienski’s 2nd Career
It looked to me that White Sox C A.J. Pierszinski made the call on the dropped 3rd strike in Game 2. After the game HP Umpire Drew Eddings said that he “saw the ball change direction”. Where did he get that X-ray vision to see that through the catcher and the glove? The 1B umpire thought it was a valid strikeout, he was on his way to 2nd base and had to sprint back towards first after Pierszinski started racing up the line. Angels C Josh Paul was in the process of rolling the ball back to the mound when Pierszinski took off; he should have checked with the HP umpire before releasing the ball. While it is most important that the umpires get the call right, they also need to be clear in communicating what they call, and the HP umpire clearly wasn’t on that play.
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/3-1/6-4
NFL/2-3-1/10-8-1
Invest/-2*/-4.5*
INVEST
3:30 NBC HD Notre Dame (+11 ½) 34 Southern Cal 30. The Irish will run an efficient ball-control offense to limit the number of USC’s offensive possessions. Irish QB Brady Quinn is off to a great start this season and should post impressive numbers against a vulnerable USC secondary. The Trojans clearly have more talent than the Irish, but won’t be able to wait until the 3rd quarter to start playing well in this one.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
4:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (+3) Dallas 24. The Cowboys might be due for a letdown after last week’s demolition of the Eagles. RB Julius Jones probably won’t play (ankle). The Giants are off to a flying start behind 2nd-year QB Eli Manning.
1:00 FOX HD Washington 20 (+5 ½) Kansas City 24. The Redskins are one of the early-season surprises. They shocked the Cowboys with 2 late touchdowns in Week 2, then escaped a 4th-quarter Seachicken rally before succumbing to the Broncos last week in the rain 21-19. QB Mark Brunell appears to have turned the clock back to 1999… did he spend the offseason training with 47 year young Braves 1B Julio Franco? RB Clinton Portis has loved running against the Chiefs, but that was behind the Broncos OL. He has been a good runner for the Redskins, but not the game-breaker that he was for the Broncos. The Chiefs need to get TE Tony Gonzalez more involved in the offense and shift the focus of the running game to be 90% on Priest Holmes instead of 60%.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 16 (-3) Jacksonville 10. QB Ben Roethlisberger is out with an injured knee suffered on Monday Night’s winning drive. RB Jerome Bettis was effective ans will team with Willie Parker to pound the Jaguars with a physical running game.
1:00 CBS Tampa Bay 19 (-4) Miami 13. Both Florida teams are off to stronger than expected starts this season. I’ll take Tampa QB Brian Griese over Miami QB Gus Frerrote. Dolphins RB Rickey Williams returns from his retirement and substance abuse suspension in this one.
4:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
4:15 CBS HD New England 27 (+3) Denver 24. Tom Brady or Jake Plummer? I’ll take Brady 100 times out of 100. LB Tedy Bruschi is planning on returning to practice next week to help out a struggling Patriots defense.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 Seattle (-9 ½) 30 Houston 17. This could be a letdown opportunity for the Seachickens after last week’s win over the Rams but the Texans are a mess so far this season.
8:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
9:00 ABC HD Indianapolis 44 (-13 ½) St Louis 20. The Colts have started scoring touchdowns this season, and the Rams haven’t stopped anyone but the Cardinals. I’m tempted to take the over in this one but am not sure how the Rams will react to the loss of HC Mike Martz (heart condition).
8:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/3-1/6-4
NFL/2-3-1/10-8-1
Invest/-2*/-4.5*
INVEST
3:30 NBC HD Notre Dame (+11 ½) 34 Southern Cal 30. The Irish will run an efficient ball-control offense to limit the number of USC’s offensive possessions. Irish QB Brady Quinn is off to a great start this season and should post impressive numbers against a vulnerable USC secondary. The Trojans clearly have more talent than the Irish, but won’t be able to wait until the 3rd quarter to start playing well in this one.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
4:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (+3) Dallas 24. The Cowboys might be due for a letdown after last week’s demolition of the Eagles. RB Julius Jones probably won’t play (ankle). The Giants are off to a flying start behind 2nd-year QB Eli Manning.
1:00 FOX HD Washington 20 (+5 ½) Kansas City 24. The Redskins are one of the early-season surprises. They shocked the Cowboys with 2 late touchdowns in Week 2, then escaped a 4th-quarter Seachicken rally before succumbing to the Broncos last week in the rain 21-19. QB Mark Brunell appears to have turned the clock back to 1999… did he spend the offseason training with 47 year young Braves 1B Julio Franco? RB Clinton Portis has loved running against the Chiefs, but that was behind the Broncos OL. He has been a good runner for the Redskins, but not the game-breaker that he was for the Broncos. The Chiefs need to get TE Tony Gonzalez more involved in the offense and shift the focus of the running game to be 90% on Priest Holmes instead of 60%.
1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 16 (-3) Jacksonville 10. QB Ben Roethlisberger is out with an injured knee suffered on Monday Night’s winning drive. RB Jerome Bettis was effective ans will team with Willie Parker to pound the Jaguars with a physical running game.
1:00 CBS Tampa Bay 19 (-4) Miami 13. Both Florida teams are off to stronger than expected starts this season. I’ll take Tampa QB Brian Griese over Miami QB Gus Frerrote. Dolphins RB Rickey Williams returns from his retirement and substance abuse suspension in this one.
4:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
4:15 CBS HD New England 27 (+3) Denver 24. Tom Brady or Jake Plummer? I’ll take Brady 100 times out of 100. LB Tedy Bruschi is planning on returning to practice next week to help out a struggling Patriots defense.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 Seattle (-9 ½) 30 Houston 17. This could be a letdown opportunity for the Seachickens after last week’s win over the Rams but the Texans are a mess so far this season.
8:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
9:00 ABC HD Indianapolis 44 (-13 ½) St Louis 20. The Colts have started scoring touchdowns this season, and the Rams haven’t stopped anyone but the Cardinals. I’m tempted to take the over in this one but am not sure how the Rams will react to the loss of HC Mike Martz (heart condition).
8:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
Monday, October 10, 2005
$205,938,439 Playing Golf
That’s the composite Yankees’ player payroll. The last $80 million bought 2 more games for the Yankees than their hated rivals, the Red Sox, got. At least Kevin Brown’s $15.7 million won’t be back next season, though I still think they should have traded him to Pittsburgh before the season as punishment for him breaking his hand punching a clubhouse wall in September 2004.
Was that Kenny Rogers I saw in the ESPN studios during the weekend? I’m curious what paperwork he has to sign before heading into the studios with all of those valuable cameras.
League Championship Series
The White Sox have been patiently waiting for the Angels and Yankees to complete their series. Frankie Rodriguez got the save, but they Yanks hit 4 rockets off of him in the 9th inning last night. The Angels starting pitching is in disarray w/ Bartolo Colon and Jarrod Washburn injured, but they only received an average of 5 IP from their starters. They overextended their bullpen a little bit to win the series so they’ll probably need a good offensive game to leave Chicago with a split.
The Astros will start Andy Pettite, Roy Oswalt, and Roger Clemens for 6 of the 7 games as necessary against the Cardinals. They don’t hit as well as last year’s team, but they were much more efficient in dismantling the Braves this time.
Angels-6/Cardinals-6.
USC – they didn’t fall behind Arizona, but they did allow 3 TDs to the Wildcats. It will be an entertaining and competitive game Saturday in South Bend on NBC HD.
Was that Kenny Rogers I saw in the ESPN studios during the weekend? I’m curious what paperwork he has to sign before heading into the studios with all of those valuable cameras.
League Championship Series
The White Sox have been patiently waiting for the Angels and Yankees to complete their series. Frankie Rodriguez got the save, but they Yanks hit 4 rockets off of him in the 9th inning last night. The Angels starting pitching is in disarray w/ Bartolo Colon and Jarrod Washburn injured, but they only received an average of 5 IP from their starters. They overextended their bullpen a little bit to win the series so they’ll probably need a good offensive game to leave Chicago with a split.
The Astros will start Andy Pettite, Roy Oswalt, and Roger Clemens for 6 of the 7 games as necessary against the Cardinals. They don’t hit as well as last year’s team, but they were much more efficient in dismantling the Braves this time.
Angels-6/Cardinals-6.
USC – they didn’t fall behind Arizona, but they did allow 3 TDs to the Wildcats. It will be an entertaining and competitive game Saturday in South Bend on NBC HD.
Saturday, October 08, 2005
$121,311,945 Playing Golf
The Red Sox reign ended last night, before 2004 hero SP Curt Schilling took the mound. Ex-Yankee SP Orlando Hernandez escaped a bases-loaded no-out jam out of the White Sox bullpen to close the door on the Red Sox this season.
The Yankees rallied in the rain from a 5-0 deficit to take a 6-5 lead against the Angels, but the Angels posted 3 straight 2-run innings to win 11-7 and take a 2-1 lead. New York’s Game 4 starter isn’t named Brown, Wright, or Pavano; it’s former Colorado pitcher Shawn Chacon (7-3 w/ NY). Both teams are using small ball to manufacture runs, but the Angels are hitting more homers (though C Bengie Molina likely won’t play after being hit on the elbow last night – he has 3 of the 5 Angel homeruns).
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-2/3-3
NFL/2-3/7-6
Invest/+1*/-2.3*
INVEST
**USC 52 (-38) Arizona 7. The Trojans didn’t cover the number on the road last week, and worrisome from a championship perspective, allowed the Sun Devils to retake the lead after rallying from a 21-3 halftime deficit. The Trojans need to be motivated to play from the opening kickoff this week; otherwise I’d expect them to lose at Notre Dame next week.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
1:00 ABC Texas 38 (-14) Oklahoma 14. This Sooner team has played like ’95 HC Howard Schnellenberger’s edition rather than one during current HC Bob Stoopes tenure. Texas HC Mack Brown finally gets the elusive win over Texas’ biggest rival. ABC’s Keith Jackson makes a (now) rare trip across 2 time zones to broadcast this one.
3:30 CBS HD Georgia 26 (+3) Tennessee 24. Tennessee has another new QB a week after picking a starter.
7:30 TBS UCLA 27 (-1) California 21. Two unbeaten teams meet, UCLA has played the tougher schedule to date, and the Bears have suffered some significant injuries on offense during the warm-up phase of their schedule.
7:45 ESPN HD Ohio St. 27 (-3) Penn St 20. ESPN’s College GameDay is at State College for this one. Both are undefeated thus far, Penn St. HC Joe Paterno is off to his best start since 1999.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD New England 23 (+3) Atlanta 16. The Patriots played poorly last week against the Chargers in all phases of the game. DL Richard Seymour joins SS Rodney Harrison on the sidelines this week. New England is in the midst of a brutal schedule run, and while they won’t make it to the postseason with 1 or 2 losses, they still look like the best team in the AFC East. Look at the other starting QB’s in the division: Vinny Testaverde for the Jets, Kelly Holcolmb for the Bills, and Gus Frerrotte for the Dolphins. The Patriots have typically contained running QB’s well; they face the ultimate test this week against the Falcons’ Michael Vick.
1:00 FOX HD. Seattle 34 (+3) St. Louis 27. This doesn’t feature two great teams, but one of these figures to qualify for the playoffs by winning the NFC West. St. Louis had 5 turnovers last week in its loss to the Giants and even the Seachickens defense will capitalize on the Rams carelessness with the football.
4:15 FOX HD Denver 27 (-6.5) Washington 16. The Broncos are successfully pounding teams with multiple running backs. Mike Anderson does the heavy work inside, Tatum Bell gives Anderson a break and adds speed. Ron Dayne is the 3rd man in the equation, and is gaining yards for the first time since he left Wisconsin. The Redskins are a surprising 3-0 after trying to give a game away last week to the Seahawks. QB Mark Brunell is playing like it is 2002 again.
4:15 FOX HD Philadelphia 27 (-3) Dallas 20. The Eagles rallied from a 24-6 deficit to the Chiefs last week to win impressively at Arrowhead. But QB Donovan McNabb took a pounding and figures to endure a difficult game against a physical Cowboys defense. Dallas has played 4 close games to open the season, but they haven’t been consistent on offense or defense. Their scoring drives feature long passes to Terry Glenn, but they only hit one or two of those a game. RB Julius Jones hasn’t run as well as he did last year. The defense is on its way to setting records for most 40+ yard pass plays allowed. It took 2 plays last week for Oakland WR Randy Moss to get behind all 11 defenders for a 73-yard gain. I am dumbfounded that a Bill Parcells coached team doesn’t practice the concept of having a defender behind the deepest receiver… especially in the 3rd season of his tenure.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 Jacksonville 19 (-3) Cincinnati 16. The Bengals are 4-0 for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president (1988)! Jacksonville really needs this win after losing at home to Denver last week.
9:00 ET ABC HD San Diego 24 (-3) Pittsburgh 20. The Chargers looked Super in defeating the Patriots last week in Foxboro. They have rebounded from an 0-2 start with 2 straight impressive wins, scoring over 30 points in each victory. They probably won’t reach that level against the Steelers, but should be able to outscore the Steelers. Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley are ready to return at RB for the Steelers, but Fast Willie Parker is off to a great start and may not relinquish many carries since he has an attribute the other two don’t have: speed.
The Yankees rallied in the rain from a 5-0 deficit to take a 6-5 lead against the Angels, but the Angels posted 3 straight 2-run innings to win 11-7 and take a 2-1 lead. New York’s Game 4 starter isn’t named Brown, Wright, or Pavano; it’s former Colorado pitcher Shawn Chacon (7-3 w/ NY). Both teams are using small ball to manufacture runs, but the Angels are hitting more homers (though C Bengie Molina likely won’t play after being hit on the elbow last night – he has 3 of the 5 Angel homeruns).
Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-2/3-3
NFL/2-3/7-6
Invest/+1*/-2.3*
INVEST
**USC 52 (-38) Arizona 7. The Trojans didn’t cover the number on the road last week, and worrisome from a championship perspective, allowed the Sun Devils to retake the lead after rallying from a 21-3 halftime deficit. The Trojans need to be motivated to play from the opening kickoff this week; otherwise I’d expect them to lose at Notre Dame next week.
SATURDAY (All Times ET)
1:00 ABC Texas 38 (-14) Oklahoma 14. This Sooner team has played like ’95 HC Howard Schnellenberger’s edition rather than one during current HC Bob Stoopes tenure. Texas HC Mack Brown finally gets the elusive win over Texas’ biggest rival. ABC’s Keith Jackson makes a (now) rare trip across 2 time zones to broadcast this one.
3:30 CBS HD Georgia 26 (+3) Tennessee 24. Tennessee has another new QB a week after picking a starter.
7:30 TBS UCLA 27 (-1) California 21. Two unbeaten teams meet, UCLA has played the tougher schedule to date, and the Bears have suffered some significant injuries on offense during the warm-up phase of their schedule.
7:45 ESPN HD Ohio St. 27 (-3) Penn St 20. ESPN’s College GameDay is at State College for this one. Both are undefeated thus far, Penn St. HC Joe Paterno is off to his best start since 1999.
SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD New England 23 (+3) Atlanta 16. The Patriots played poorly last week against the Chargers in all phases of the game. DL Richard Seymour joins SS Rodney Harrison on the sidelines this week. New England is in the midst of a brutal schedule run, and while they won’t make it to the postseason with 1 or 2 losses, they still look like the best team in the AFC East. Look at the other starting QB’s in the division: Vinny Testaverde for the Jets, Kelly Holcolmb for the Bills, and Gus Frerrotte for the Dolphins. The Patriots have typically contained running QB’s well; they face the ultimate test this week against the Falcons’ Michael Vick.
1:00 FOX HD. Seattle 34 (+3) St. Louis 27. This doesn’t feature two great teams, but one of these figures to qualify for the playoffs by winning the NFC West. St. Louis had 5 turnovers last week in its loss to the Giants and even the Seachickens defense will capitalize on the Rams carelessness with the football.
4:15 FOX HD Denver 27 (-6.5) Washington 16. The Broncos are successfully pounding teams with multiple running backs. Mike Anderson does the heavy work inside, Tatum Bell gives Anderson a break and adds speed. Ron Dayne is the 3rd man in the equation, and is gaining yards for the first time since he left Wisconsin. The Redskins are a surprising 3-0 after trying to give a game away last week to the Seahawks. QB Mark Brunell is playing like it is 2002 again.
4:15 FOX HD Philadelphia 27 (-3) Dallas 20. The Eagles rallied from a 24-6 deficit to the Chiefs last week to win impressively at Arrowhead. But QB Donovan McNabb took a pounding and figures to endure a difficult game against a physical Cowboys defense. Dallas has played 4 close games to open the season, but they haven’t been consistent on offense or defense. Their scoring drives feature long passes to Terry Glenn, but they only hit one or two of those a game. RB Julius Jones hasn’t run as well as he did last year. The defense is on its way to setting records for most 40+ yard pass plays allowed. It took 2 plays last week for Oakland WR Randy Moss to get behind all 11 defenders for a 73-yard gain. I am dumbfounded that a Bill Parcells coached team doesn’t practice the concept of having a defender behind the deepest receiver… especially in the 3rd season of his tenure.
7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 Jacksonville 19 (-3) Cincinnati 16. The Bengals are 4-0 for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president (1988)! Jacksonville really needs this win after losing at home to Denver last week.
9:00 ET ABC HD San Diego 24 (-3) Pittsburgh 20. The Chargers looked Super in defeating the Patriots last week in Foxboro. They have rebounded from an 0-2 start with 2 straight impressive wins, scoring over 30 points in each victory. They probably won’t reach that level against the Steelers, but should be able to outscore the Steelers. Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley are ready to return at RB for the Steelers, but Fast Willie Parker is off to a great start and may not relinquish many carries since he has an attribute the other two don’t have: speed.
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