Saturday, November 26, 2005

When Will the Cowboys Learn?

They shouldn’t wear their blue jerseys at home. Ever. Doesn’t Jerry Jones remember opponents wearing white at home (during the Tom Landry era) to force the Cowboys to wear their blue jerseys? Dallas has 2 home losses this season, to Washington and Denver. Both occurred in with the Cowboys wearing their blue jerseys in front of a national television audience. The Cowboys allowed two long TD passes to Redskins WR Santana Moss within a 120 second span in the closing minutes to lose 14-13. Against Denver on Thanksgiving, PK Billy Cundiff missed a 34-yard field goal that would have given the Cowboys the lead in the 4th quarter. Dallas needs to accept the fact it doesn’t win in its blue jerseys and should stop suffering losses to overcome a superstition.

Texas survived a battle at Texas A&M to stay on target for a Rose Bowl date with USC. They don’t know who they’re playing yet since Colorado forgot to show up for their game against Nebraska. Even a clock operator’s lazy trigger at the end of the first half couldn’t slow the Huskers. The officiating crew must have been big fans of White Sox C A.J. Pierzinski during the ALCS, allowing the participant to pass judgment.
Type/Many Weeks Ago/Season
NCAA/1-0/10-4
NFL/3-1/17-16-1
Invest/+2*/-2.7*

INVEST
*Cleveland 13 @ Minnesota 10 (under 39). Neither of these offenses is particularly good at throwing the football. Both QBs, Dilfer (Cle) and Johnson (Min) aren’t going to take chances that could result in interceptions and short fields for the opposing offense. Somehow the Vikings have rebounded from a 2-5 start, the boat party, and the loss of starting QB Daunte Culpepper to climb back into the NFC playoff race. When will they turn into the real Vikings and disappoint their fans?

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
12:30 FSN Iowa State 19 (-2 ½) Kansas 13. I don’t know a thing about either team, but the Cyclones could earn a berth in the Big 12 Championship game with a win here.

5:00 ABC Notre Dame 38 (-16 ½) Stanford 20. The Irish can lock in their first BCS appearance since 2001 and generate the revenue necessary to pay HC Charlie Weis’ contract extension. This will be Stanford Stadium’s last home game before undergoing a major renovation. Keith Jackson draws the coverage instead of Brent Cheeseburger.

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Tampa Bay 20 (-3) Chicago 13. The Bucs have won 2 straight with QB Chris Simms after 2 duds. The Bears are on a roll, 7-3 with a 2 game lead in the NFC North.

1:00 CBS HD San Diego 24 (+3) Washington 20. The Chargers are on a roll, winning 3 in a row to get to 6-4 in the top heavy AFC. TE Antonio Gates left last week’s game with an injured ankle and is a game-time decision. Washington has lost 2 straight tough games to Tampa Bay and Oakland to fall behind Dallas and New York in the NFC East. Both of these teams need this game to stay near the top of the Wild Card race.

1:00 CBS HD New England 30 (+3) Kansas City 27. The Chiefs have Larry Johnson playing RB in place of an injured Priest Holmes. The Patriots will have Patrick Pass or Heath Evans playing RB in place of an injured Corey Dillon. The Chiefs’ defense started out strong but has reverted to its 2003 form. The Patriots have LB Tedy Bruschi back on the field from an off-season stroke but haven’t been much better than the Chiefs in recent weeks. Patriot QB Tom Brady is carrying more of the load this season due to all of the injuries suffered by his teammates. His clutch play tips my pick New England’s way.

4:15 FOX HD Seattle 24 (-4 ½) N.Y. Giants 17. The national audience will get a chance to view Seachickens RB Shaun Alexander. His numbers have been good, not great against NFL-caliber defenses of Dallas and Washington.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 New Orleans 20 (-2) N.Y. Jets 6. This game was scheduled for prime time back in March. Both of these teams are 2-8. The Jets had Brooks Bollinger, Vinny Testaverde, and Kliff Klingsbury play QB last week in a 27-0 loss at Denver. I don’t know why, but they only ran the ball 7 times over the course of the entire game! With the 3 afore mentioned players at quarterback, I think 7 passes for the entire game would have been more appropriate.

9:00 ABC HD Indianapolis 31 (-8) Pittsburgh 21. The Colts are hitting on all cylinders while the Steelers are dealing with significant injuries. QB Ben Roethlisberger returns from knee surgery. RBs Jerome Bettis, Fast Willie Parker, and Duce Staley have all missed recent games due to injury. It looks like its Parker’s turn to play this weekend. I just can’t see the Steelers offense staying with the Colts in this one. Maybe a month from now if all of the key players are in better health.

Monday, November 14, 2005

NFC North 4-0?

Yes, the NFC North went 4-0 yesterday, with Green Bay and Minnesota springing road upsets at division leading Atlanta and New York (Giants) while Detroit and Chicago won over cellar-dwelling Arizona and San Francisco. It was really windy in Chicago, but the 49er passing game was atrocious. QB Cody Pickett was 1 for 13 for 28 yards with an interception. One completion in 60 minutes of football? The 49ers best offensive play was a punt, as Chicago return man Bobby Wade fumbled 3 punts and the 49ers recovered them all, including one at the Bears’ 3. Two plays netted two yards, then 2 penalties (12-man huddle, false start) put the 49ers into an impossible 3rd and 11 situation. Incomplete pass was the obvious 3rd-down outcome for the 49ers.

The Bears have won 5 straight to put a stranglehold on the NFC North but now will face 4 real NFL teams in the next 5 weeks (CAR, @TB, GB, @PIT, ATL). It’s important to let the teams that will defeat themselves do just that (i.e. MIN, BAL, DET, NO, SF). Now the Bears face the more difficult task of winning games on their own (Hint: Leave the orange jerseys in the closet!)

Steve Spurrier now has victories over Tennessee and Florida in his first season at South Carolina. Things are getting interesting in the SEC East. Alabama wasn’t able to muster enough offense against LSU, the Tigers to be really upset since the only blemish on their record is a 30-27 come from ahead loss to a below average Tennessee team.

Philadelphia Eagles 2005: RIP. They were game for 56 minutes building a 20-7 lead; then gave up a 42 TD second drive. On their ensuing possession QB Donovan McNabb was intercepted by S Roy Williams who returned it for a touchdown. McNabb appeared to aggravate his hernia injury (between the INT return and an earlier 4th quarter scramble) and sat out the final drive that only reached the Dallas 43 yard line. The Eagles ran the ball very successfully with both Brian Westbrook and Lamar Gordon but couldn’t hold the lead. They have now lost 3 straight to fall into the NFC East cellar and are 0-3 in the division.

Friday, November 04, 2005

Hurricanes and Hokies

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/2-0/9-4
NFL/2-4/14-15-1
Invest/-2*/-4.7*

INVEST
Somehow the Bengals were only able to turn 5 interceptions of Packers QB Brett Favre into 21 points.. no missed field goals, only 1 turnover of their own, 22 offensive first downs, ouch. Cincinnat is 3-for-3 in intercepting NFC North QB’s 5 times this season; I’ll be looking for a proposition when they play the Lions to make it 4 for 4 with Joey Harrington back at the helm for an injured Jeff Garcia!

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
**7:45 ESPN HD. #6 Miami 17 (+6 ½) #3 Virginia Tech 20. The Hurricanes have rebounded from the opening 10-7 loss to Florida State to climb to the highest ranking of the 1-loss teams. QB Kyle Wright posted solid passing stats after the FSU game until last week against North Carolina, but I attribute that to the Notre-Dame style alternate gold-green uniforms the Canes wore. Virginia Tech QB Marcus Vick is leading a balanced attack, and is more disciplined in the pocket than his brother, Michael. The Hokies haven’t had a close game since their opening game against N.C. State (20-16) but the Hurricanes defense will be their toughest test of the season to date.

#1 USC faces Stanford at 7:00 on TBS. The Cardinal had undefeated UCLA on the ropes last week (ahead 24-3 with 8 minutes to play) but couldn’t hold the lead, losing 30-27 in overtime. #2 Texas is at Baylor, #4 Alabama visits Mississippi State (3:30 CBS), and #5 UCLA visits Arizona in non-national TV games in conference play.

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Carolina (-1 ½) 22 Tampa Bay 10. Chris Simms replaced Brian Griese (knee injury) at QB and the Bucs lost to the Division I-A 49ers last week. The Panthers only beat the Lions by 1 on the road a few weeks ago, but QB Jake Delhomme will limit his TD passes to Carolina players this week. Tampa Bay needs to get RB Cadillac Williams healthy… then evaluate QB Chris Simms’ play.

1:00 CBS HD Oakland 26 (+4 ½) Kansas City 24. The Chiefs’ offense isn’t in gear this season and the Raiders have found the key component to their offense… run the ball with RB Lamont Jordan. It’s too bad for CBS that the 49ers are at home and they can’t move the start time of this game to the 4:15 doubleheader slot. There is one national game on the CBS schedule: 1-6 Green Bay hosting 5-2 Pittsburgh, which will be without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee surgery).

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime Washington 27 (-3) Philadelphia 22. The Redskins played poorly last week in New York, but the Eagles did the same in Denver. QB Donovan McNabb started 0-12 with 1 interception. McNabb scrambled once and RB Brian Westbrook had 1 carry while the Broncos jumped out to a 28-0 lead. I would have loved to have seen a montage of the incompletes on PrimeTime! The Eagles are battling through injuries to McNabb (ribs, hernia) and WR Terrell Owens (ankle). I wonder if the fans in Philly have adopted Bostonian’s “That’s Manny being Manny” with respect to T.O. This week’s press comments by Owens about his injuries, McNabb, Brett Favre, etc. might just be the way he expresses his frustrations, but it isn’t that entertaining. T.O. certainly sounds like a kindergartner. Owens has always played at a top level, and McNabb still throws to him because he values winning above T.O.’s public antics. The Eagles need to get things in order on the defensive side of the football. The Redskins played horribly in the Meadowlands last week against a super-charged Giants team. They will be jacked up for this one, playing at home on national TV under the lights. RBs Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts should be able to run successfully against the Eagles; and WR Santana Moss is outperforming every WR not named Steve Smith in the NFC this season.

9:00 ABC HD New England 30 (+3) Indianapolis 24. The Colts haven’t gotten this monkey off of their backs yet. They’re 7-0 but have faced only 1 quality opponent (Jacksonville) while the 4-3 Patriots faced Carolina, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Atlanta, and Denver… in succession. Indy QB Peyton Manning hasn’t won in New England and while this Patriots defense isn’t Super Bowl caliber right now, it will be physical in the all over the field. Manning tends to throw the ball into the middle of the field late against the Patriots… a huge mistake with playmakers like LB Tedy Bruschi and S Rodney Harrison in coverage. Even though Harrison is out with a knee injury, his replacement will know to watch the middle of the field late. Those have been key components of New England’s strategy through the years in this rivalry, and I’m picking the Patriots until the Colts win one of these games on the field. The Packers didn’t beat the Troy-Emmitt-Michael Cowboys of the ‘90s… they won the Super Bowl after Carolina took out a weakened Dallas squad. The Colts might need that assistance this season… the Patriots might end up as the #3 or #4 seed in the playoffs this season.