Saturday, October 29, 2005

Bengals back in their comfort zone

Pitchers and Catchers in 4 months, give or take a week. Batting Practice for the Astros is scheduled for Monday at 1:00. I don’t know why Garner only bunted his runners to second base. His guys proved they couldn’t get a hit with a runner in scoring position. Worse, the probability of strikeouts increased (exponentially, it seemed) as a runner moved around the bases. They needed to bunt or steal all the way around .

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-1/8-5
NFL/0-5-1/13-16-1
Invest/0*/-2.5*

INVEST
**Cincinnati 31 (-9) Green Bay 21. The Packers offense is reduced to QB Brett Favre and WR Donald Driver. WR Javon Walker and RBs Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport are all out for the season. Walker’s replacement was Robert Ferguson. He’s out 4-6 weeks now. The Bengals have lost 2 in a row, but both were to solid AFC teams (@ Jacksonville, Pittsburgh). Now they get back to their comfort zone (they defeated Minnesota and Chicago by a combined 61-15 tally) playing against NFC North foes. The risk in this investment is that the Bengals are without a couple of starters in their secondary, so Green Bay could engineer a back-door cover like they did against Carolina on Monday Night a few weeks ago.

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
3:30 CBS HD #19 Florida 16 (-4) #13 Georgia 10. Unbeaten Georgia starts Joe Tereshinski at QB following the loss of D.J. Shockley to injury. The Bulldogs have struggled against the Gators in Jacksonville, losing 13 of 15. Florida’s new spread offense has struggled against the better SEC defenses, so I expect this game to be a low-scoring affair.

The other undefeated teams aren’t expecting much opposition but can’t afford to suffer a loss. #1 Texas and #2 Southern Cal play winless (in conference) foes this week. Texas plays Oklahoma State on TBS at 7:00 while SC plays Washington St. on ABC (Regional) at 3:30. #5 Alabama hosts Utah State (2-4, 1-3 in WAC) and UCLA visits Stanford (4-2, 3-1 Pac-10) which has recovered nicely from an embarrassing loss to new I-A member UC-Davis. Those games aren’t available on any of the national broadcast or cable outlets.

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Detroit 19 (-3) Chicago 9. If this game doesn’t end in a tie, an NFC North team will have a winning record for the first time since the opening week. Detroit has turned over to the reigns to QB Jeff Garcia who led the team to a 13-10 road victory at Cleveland. His most important stat: 0 interceptions. Demoted QB Joey Harrington threw 5 in the week 2 meeting between these two teams. Bears rookie QB Kyle Orton has done well protecting the football, but I’m not ready to pick the Bears on the road just yet.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 New England 30 (-9) Buffalo 13. The Patriots pulled an NFC North maneuver last week, moving into sole possession of first place by having a bye. They may get LB Tedy Bruschi back from a stroke for this game; their defense is playing like the 2002 edition and not the Super Bowl Championship units. The Pats can’t afford to look ahead to next Monday’s marquee game against the Colts, instead they need to bury their AFC East opponents in order to restore order and prepare for a playoff run, which will include road games. In Belichick I Trust.

9:00 ABC HD Pittsburgh 20 (-10) Baltimore 3. The Steelers earned an impressive victory against the Bengals last week and have the opportunity to bury the Ravens this week. Baltimore is without S Ed Reed and QB Kyle Boller. While Boller may not be even an adequate QB, backup Anthony Wright isn’t at that level. LB Ray Lewis and RB Jamal Lewis are slowed by injuries. The Steelers power running game will face more resistance this week, but QB Ben Roethlisberger’s presence will prevent the Ravens from stacking the line solely against the run.


1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (-2 ½) Washington 21. Both of these teams are off to stronger than expected starts and could maintain their pace for the course of the season. Giants QB Eli Manning is directing a strong offense, even if it has slowed the past 2 weeks (against good defenses). The Redskins were playing great offense before posting 52 points on the Division I-A 49ers. QB Mark Brunell is playing like it is 1999 again. WR Santana Moss is making the offseason trade of #1 WR’s with the Jets (for Laverneus Coles) look like the biggest ripoff since the Cowboys-Vikings Herschel Walker trade (well, almost).

4:00 CBS HD Kansas City 24 (+6) San Diego 26. This game probably won’t have more than a few punts, but I’m not sure that the score will get up into the 30’s. Chargers HC Marty Schottenheimer is more comfortable with scores in the teens or twenties. Both teams will run the ball with their All-Pro runners, Holmes for the Chiefs and Tomlinson for the Chargers. That will keep the game clock moving and keep the number of plays low. While Chiefs HC Vermiel is associated with high-powered offenses in his return to the NFL (StL and KC), it is Mike Martz who is pass-heavy. The Rams ran the ball a lot more last week when Martz wasn’t on the sidelines.

4:15 FOX HD Denver 31 (-3 ½) Philadelphia 20. The Broncos have to be stinging mad after losing a 23-10 4th quarter lead in the Meadowlands to the Giants last week. The week before New England scored 17 unanswered second-half points to place the outcome in doubt until the end. Once, an isolated incident. Twice, a trend. Three times, bad things happen. The Broncos will use their punishing ground game with RBs Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell to control the line of scrimmage. They’ll probably call more running plays on 1 drive than the Eagles will call all game.

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

The Titanic isn't limited to the Vikings... the Packers are onboard too!

I think that was A. J. Pierzsynski in body paint batting for Jermaine Dye Sunday night. FOX Analyst Tim McCarver said that the HP umpire probably went by sound on the call… guess the rain hardened Dye’s arm into ash.

Too good to be true… the Packers lost to the Vikings 23-20, failig to cover the points after being up 17-0 at the half. To make matters worse, they lost RB Ahman Green for the season to a leg injury in the 2nd half. The Seachickens were just that for about 58 minutes, then scored a TD on offense and set up the winning FG on defense by putting a strong pass rush in Dallas QB Drew Bledsoe’s face to pull out a push (though the line did move to 5 points on game day).

THURSDAY
7:30 ESPN HD #3 Virginia Tech (-14) 34 #14 Boston College 17. The former Big East opponents meet in Blacksburg. The Hokies are a distant third to Texas and USC in the BCS Standings but do have the opportunity to make up some extra ground on the Trojans in the ACC Championship Game. The conference title game gives teams from the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 an edge over the Big 11, Pac 10, and Big lEast teams. This VT team is QB'd by Mike Vick's brother, Marcus, so VT again stands for Vick's Team. The Hokies are coming off a mauling of Maryland 28-9 last week while the Eagles may have been looking ahead to this game while playing Wake Forest 2 weeks ago. Boston College needed 2 TD's in the last 2 1/2 minutes to pull out a 35-30 victory. The Eagles lost 28-17 to Florida State in their one game this season against a ranked opponent.

Saturday, October 22, 2005

Seachickens to Avenge Last Year's Monday Night Disaster

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-0/7-4
(Before MNF) NFL/2-3-1/12-11-1
Invest/+2*/-2.5*

INVEST
Notre Dame played a great game against Southern Cal but came up just short at the end. They almost got QB Matt Leinart down inbounds in the final seconds. Then they had a good defensive alignment called against the QB sneak but Leinart was able to slide left with the assistance of RB Reggie Bush and get into the endzone for the winning touchdown. Bush assisted Leinart, but not in an egregious manner that would have drawn a flag. A rules revision could be justified anyway. Since multiple defenders can tackle the ballcarrier, why shouldn’t offensive players be allowed to help the ballcarrier in a “pile” situation?

I’m tempted to take Green Bay over the NFL’s fastest sinking ship, Mike Tice’s Vikings, but it just looks too good to be true.

*Seattle (-3) 27 Dallas 20. The Cowboys just played 2 games against division opponents while the Seachickens didn’t let down too much against the lowly Texans after a road victory over the Rams. WR Joe Jurevicious has been a great pickup for the Seachickens and RB Shawn Alexander is the NFL’s TD leader. This time the defense will hold the Cowboys to less than 2 TDs in the last 2 minutes.

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
3:30 CBS HD #5 Alabama (-3 ½) 20 #19 Tennessee 13. The Tide squeaked by Ole Miss 13-10 with a game-winning field goal as time expired. This is the second of 4 games against ranked SEC teams. Alabama rolled over Florida 31-3 earlier this month but lost WR Tyrone Prothro to a knee injury late in the game. Tennessee’s running game has struggled in losses to Florida and Georgia and the Vols will need balance to win this rivalry game.

3:30 ABC Regional #2 Texas #7 45 (-16 ½) Texas Tech 24. The Longhorns got the big gorilla off of their back earlier this month with a 45-12 rout of Oklahoma. Texas Tech and Texas A&M are the two toughest remaining opponents on the regular season schedule. The Red Raiders have a potent offense, but were mauled 51-21 by the Longhorns last season.


8:00 FOX HD World Series Game 1. I have a hard time rooting for A. J. Pierzinski. I’ll take the Astros since SP Roy Oswalt and RP Brad Lidge were stalwarts on my champion fantasy baseball team.

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD Green Bay 37 (-2) Minnesota 0. The Vikings ship is sinking faster than the Titanic, but not fast enough for the corporate NFL. It’s scary to think that WR Randy Moss was one of the good guys holding that group together.

1:00 CBS HD Cincinnati 26 (-1) Pittsburgh 20. The Bengals are favored over the Steelers for the first time in 27 meetings! The Steelers saw enough of QB Tommy Maddox last week to bring Ben Roethlisberger back early from a knee injury. They’ll need better QB performance to get their running game back in gear. RB Willie Parker didn’t do much against Jacksonville with the Jaguar defense unafraid of Maddox’s throwing capabilities. The Bengals are off to a great start behind 3rd year QB Carson Palmer, RB Rudi Johnson, and WR Chad Johnson.

1:00 CBS Philadelphia 27 (-4) San Diego 20. The Chargers can’t win against both of last year’s Super Bowl teams on the road in the same month, can they? The Eagles really need this one coming off a rout at Dallas and a bye.

4:00 FOX HD. Seattle (-3) 27 Dallas 20.

4:15 CBS HD N.Y. Giants 30 (-2) Denver 20. The Giants will force Broncos QB Jake Plummer to make some plays with his arm, and some interceptions will result.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime
8:00 FOX HD. World Series Game 2.

9:00 ABC HD N.Y. Jets 20 (+7) Atlanta 24. Mike Vick or Vinny T. as QB?

Thursday, October 20, 2005

Who Needs a Bullpen?

The White Sox finished off the Angels in 5 games with their starting pitchers recording all but 2 outs! The Angels were behind early in most games and also got themselves behind in the count during most at-bats.
The NLCS Umpires wanted some attention too. I didn’t get to see Game 4 (due to the Millerpalooza Wedding) but the pitch that Cardinals Manager Tony LaRussa chose to be ejected on looked to be clearly inside. But the Jim Edmonds ejection was uncalled for. That pitch looked inside and Edmonds claimed only to ask for information on the call, not to argue it. The umpires should not decide games, and forcing a team to send a pinch hitter up with a 3-2 count amounts to the umpires deciding games.

WR Randy Moss obviously wasn’t the only bad apple in the Minnesota Vikings locker room. If the NFC North wasn’t so bad, HC Mike Tice would be gone by now. But the hapless Vikings are only 1 game behind divison-leading Detroit and Chicago. Those teams’ QB’s have something like 5 road wins in their careers. After Green Bay wins at the Dome, then Tice might get sent packing. That would leave the Vikings at 1-5, and that might be too much to overcome even in the lackluster NFC North.

Saturday, October 15, 2005

A. J. Pierszienski’s 2nd Career

It looked to me that White Sox C A.J. Pierszinski made the call on the dropped 3rd strike in Game 2. After the game HP Umpire Drew Eddings said that he “saw the ball change direction”. Where did he get that X-ray vision to see that through the catcher and the glove? The 1B umpire thought it was a valid strikeout, he was on his way to 2nd base and had to sprint back towards first after Pierszinski started racing up the line. Angels C Josh Paul was in the process of rolling the ball back to the mound when Pierszinski took off; he should have checked with the HP umpire before releasing the ball. While it is most important that the umpires get the call right, they also need to be clear in communicating what they call, and the HP umpire clearly wasn’t on that play.

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/3-1/6-4
NFL/2-3-1/10-8-1
Invest/-2*/-4.5*

INVEST
3:30 NBC HD Notre Dame (+11 ½) 34 Southern Cal 30. The Irish will run an efficient ball-control offense to limit the number of USC’s offensive possessions. Irish QB Brady Quinn is off to a great start this season and should post impressive numbers against a vulnerable USC secondary. The Trojans clearly have more talent than the Irish, but won’t be able to wait until the 3rd quarter to start playing well in this one.

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
4:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series

SUNDAY
1:00 FOX HD N.Y. Giants 27 (+3) Dallas 24. The Cowboys might be due for a letdown after last week’s demolition of the Eagles. RB Julius Jones probably won’t play (ankle). The Giants are off to a flying start behind 2nd-year QB Eli Manning.

1:00 FOX HD Washington 20 (+5 ½) Kansas City 24. The Redskins are one of the early-season surprises. They shocked the Cowboys with 2 late touchdowns in Week 2, then escaped a 4th-quarter Seachicken rally before succumbing to the Broncos last week in the rain 21-19. QB Mark Brunell appears to have turned the clock back to 1999… did he spend the offseason training with 47 year young Braves 1B Julio Franco? RB Clinton Portis has loved running against the Chiefs, but that was behind the Broncos OL. He has been a good runner for the Redskins, but not the game-breaker that he was for the Broncos. The Chiefs need to get TE Tony Gonzalez more involved in the offense and shift the focus of the running game to be 90% on Priest Holmes instead of 60%.

1:00 CBS HD Pittsburgh 16 (-3) Jacksonville 10. QB Ben Roethlisberger is out with an injured knee suffered on Monday Night’s winning drive. RB Jerome Bettis was effective ans will team with Willie Parker to pound the Jaguars with a physical running game.

1:00 CBS Tampa Bay 19 (-4) Miami 13. Both Florida teams are off to stronger than expected starts this season. I’ll take Tampa QB Brian Griese over Miami QB Gus Frerrote. Dolphins RB Rickey Williams returns from his retirement and substance abuse suspension in this one.

4:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series
4:15 CBS HD New England 27 (+3) Denver 24. Tom Brady or Jake Plummer? I’ll take Brady 100 times out of 100. LB Tedy Bruschi is planning on returning to practice next week to help out a struggling Patriots defense.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 Seattle (-9 ½) 30 Houston 17. This could be a letdown opportunity for the Seachickens after last week’s win over the Rams but the Texans are a mess so far this season.

8:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series

9:00 ABC HD Indianapolis 44 (-13 ½) St Louis 20. The Colts have started scoring touchdowns this season, and the Rams haven’t stopped anyone but the Cardinals. I’m tempted to take the over in this one but am not sure how the Rams will react to the loss of HC Mike Martz (heart condition).

8:00 FOX HD. League Championship Series

Monday, October 10, 2005

$205,938,439 Playing Golf

That’s the composite Yankees’ player payroll. The last $80 million bought 2 more games for the Yankees than their hated rivals, the Red Sox, got. At least Kevin Brown’s $15.7 million won’t be back next season, though I still think they should have traded him to Pittsburgh before the season as punishment for him breaking his hand punching a clubhouse wall in September 2004.

Was that Kenny Rogers I saw in the ESPN studios during the weekend? I’m curious what paperwork he has to sign before heading into the studios with all of those valuable cameras.

League Championship Series
The White Sox have been patiently waiting for the Angels and Yankees to complete their series. Frankie Rodriguez got the save, but they Yanks hit 4 rockets off of him in the 9th inning last night. The Angels starting pitching is in disarray w/ Bartolo Colon and Jarrod Washburn injured, but they only received an average of 5 IP from their starters. They overextended their bullpen a little bit to win the series so they’ll probably need a good offensive game to leave Chicago with a split.

The Astros will start Andy Pettite, Roy Oswalt, and Roger Clemens for 6 of the 7 games as necessary against the Cardinals. They don’t hit as well as last year’s team, but they were much more efficient in dismantling the Braves this time.

Angels-6/Cardinals-6.

USC – they didn’t fall behind Arizona, but they did allow 3 TDs to the Wildcats. It will be an entertaining and competitive game Saturday in South Bend on NBC HD.

Saturday, October 08, 2005

$121,311,945 Playing Golf

The Red Sox reign ended last night, before 2004 hero SP Curt Schilling took the mound. Ex-Yankee SP Orlando Hernandez escaped a bases-loaded no-out jam out of the White Sox bullpen to close the door on the Red Sox this season.

The Yankees rallied in the rain from a 5-0 deficit to take a 6-5 lead against the Angels, but the Angels posted 3 straight 2-run innings to win 11-7 and take a 2-1 lead. New York’s Game 4 starter isn’t named Brown, Wright, or Pavano; it’s former Colorado pitcher Shawn Chacon (7-3 w/ NY). Both teams are using small ball to manufacture runs, but the Angels are hitting more homers (though C Bengie Molina likely won’t play after being hit on the elbow last night – he has 3 of the 5 Angel homeruns).

Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-2/3-3
NFL/2-3/7-6
Invest/+1*/-2.3*

INVEST
**USC 52 (-38) Arizona 7. The Trojans didn’t cover the number on the road last week, and worrisome from a championship perspective, allowed the Sun Devils to retake the lead after rallying from a 21-3 halftime deficit. The Trojans need to be motivated to play from the opening kickoff this week; otherwise I’d expect them to lose at Notre Dame next week.

SATURDAY (All Times ET)
1:00 ABC Texas 38 (-14) Oklahoma 14. This Sooner team has played like ’95 HC Howard Schnellenberger’s edition rather than one during current HC Bob Stoopes tenure. Texas HC Mack Brown finally gets the elusive win over Texas’ biggest rival. ABC’s Keith Jackson makes a (now) rare trip across 2 time zones to broadcast this one.

3:30 CBS HD Georgia 26 (+3) Tennessee 24. Tennessee has another new QB a week after picking a starter.

7:30 TBS UCLA 27 (-1) California 21. Two unbeaten teams meet, UCLA has played the tougher schedule to date, and the Bears have suffered some significant injuries on offense during the warm-up phase of their schedule.

7:45 ESPN HD Ohio St. 27 (-3) Penn St 20. ESPN’s College GameDay is at State College for this one. Both are undefeated thus far, Penn St. HC Joe Paterno is off to his best start since 1999.

SUNDAY
1:00 CBS HD New England 23 (+3) Atlanta 16. The Patriots played poorly last week against the Chargers in all phases of the game. DL Richard Seymour joins SS Rodney Harrison on the sidelines this week. New England is in the midst of a brutal schedule run, and while they won’t make it to the postseason with 1 or 2 losses, they still look like the best team in the AFC East. Look at the other starting QB’s in the division: Vinny Testaverde for the Jets, Kelly Holcolmb for the Bills, and Gus Frerrotte for the Dolphins. The Patriots have typically contained running QB’s well; they face the ultimate test this week against the Falcons’ Michael Vick.

1:00 FOX HD. Seattle 34 (+3) St. Louis 27. This doesn’t feature two great teams, but one of these figures to qualify for the playoffs by winning the NFC West. St. Louis had 5 turnovers last week in its loss to the Giants and even the Seachickens defense will capitalize on the Rams carelessness with the football.

4:15 FOX HD Denver 27 (-6.5) Washington 16. The Broncos are successfully pounding teams with multiple running backs. Mike Anderson does the heavy work inside, Tatum Bell gives Anderson a break and adds speed. Ron Dayne is the 3rd man in the equation, and is gaining yards for the first time since he left Wisconsin. The Redskins are a surprising 3-0 after trying to give a game away last week to the Seahawks. QB Mark Brunell is playing like it is 2002 again.

4:15 FOX HD Philadelphia 27 (-3) Dallas 20. The Eagles rallied from a 24-6 deficit to the Chiefs last week to win impressively at Arrowhead. But QB Donovan McNabb took a pounding and figures to endure a difficult game against a physical Cowboys defense. Dallas has played 4 close games to open the season, but they haven’t been consistent on offense or defense. Their scoring drives feature long passes to Terry Glenn, but they only hit one or two of those a game. RB Julius Jones hasn’t run as well as he did last year. The defense is on its way to setting records for most 40+ yard pass plays allowed. It took 2 plays last week for Oakland WR Randy Moss to get behind all 11 defenders for a 73-yard gain. I am dumbfounded that a Bill Parcells coached team doesn’t practice the concept of having a defender behind the deepest receiver… especially in the 3rd season of his tenure.

7:30 ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 Jacksonville 19 (-3) Cincinnati 16. The Bengals are 4-0 for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president (1988)! Jacksonville really needs this win after losing at home to Denver last week.

9:00 ET ABC HD San Diego 24 (-3) Pittsburgh 20. The Chargers looked Super in defeating the Patriots last week in Foxboro. They have rebounded from an 0-2 start with 2 straight impressive wins, scoring over 30 points in each victory. They probably won’t reach that level against the Steelers, but should be able to outscore the Steelers. Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley are ready to return at RB for the Steelers, but Fast Willie Parker is off to a great start and may not relinquish many carries since he has an attribute the other two don’t have: speed.

Monday, October 03, 2005

Baseball’s Division Series

It’s too bad (my opinion) that both the Yankees and the Red Sox qualified. The bulk of the divisional series games are spread out on ESPN w/ FOX showing some Yankees games at 8 pm ET. 8 pm Yankee playoff game start times come in before taxes as the 3rd certainty after life and death.

I can’t see the White Sox having a chance to win a series but do think that these Yankee and Red Sox teams are more flawed than their previous teams. Both are probably relieved that they didn’t miss the postseason to the other and might take a minute to relax. That is too long of a break in a 5-game series. Neither one will be able to start its ace more than once in the opening round.

The Padres shouldn’t be allowed in the playoffs, but they will likely have a higher winning percentage than the NFC North qualifier, where if the Bears lose to the Browns and the Lions lose to the Ravens, a team will move into first place on its bye week for the 3rd straight week. ESPN’s Berman’s best line from PrimeTime last night: “In the NFC Norris, if you don’t play any games, you’ve got a great shot at making the playoffs!” The sorry Packers could make it 4 straight the following week except that the Vikings play the Bears and one of those teams will win or tie (I think).

The Braves haven’t won a NLDS since John Smoltz was in their rotation. His arm might not have enough left in it to get through a playoff start though. Maybe this young Braves team will outperform the recent veteran editions.

White Sox-4/Angels-4/Cardinals-4/Braves-5.

Check out ESPN’s Bill Simmons for some good Red Sox reading.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/simmons/index

Saturday, October 01, 2005

High Stress in Red Sox-Yankee Land

The Indians are screwing things up. They’re supposed to be winning these games so that the Red Sox or the Yankees stay home from the playoffs and cause severe hemorrhaging. In Boston’s case it will be the fans and in New York’s it will be management. The Sox won 5-3 last night behind Mercenary David Wells (NYY from ’97-98, ’02-03). 2004 Yankee 1B John Olerud contributed a SF to the Sox cause last night. Each team has a situational LH reliever on its roster that the other released midseason. LHP Mike Stanton came over to the Red Sox from the Nationals this week while the Yankees signed LHP Alan Embree and IF Mark Bellhorn during the summer after the Red Sox released them. If the Indians weren’t struggling (lost 4 of 5), the Red Sox and Yankees would each need 2 wins in order to qualify for the playoffs. 2004 playoff hero Curt Schilling is scheduled to start Sunday vs. Mike Mussina, Schilling has struggled recovering from the ankle injury that he had jury-rigged during the playoffs last season to help the Sox win their first championship since 1918.

Found an interesting site run by a couple of die-hards.

http://www.yankeesredsox.com


Type/Last Week/Season
NCAA/1-0/4-3
NFL/2-2/5-3
Invest/-2.2*/-3.3*

The Patriots had an extra 52 seconds to work with last week but don’t think that the officiating error was a lopsided one. I’m sure the Steelers would have been sweating their tying TD a little bit more if the clock was reading in the :30’s rather than 1:+.

I left off the USC-Oregon game last week and that looked like a mistake for a half as Oregon capitalized on USC mistakes to take a 13-0 lead. But the Trojans cut the deficit to 3 by halftime and then scored 5 TDs in the second half to win going away, 45-13.

The Rams recovered from a slow start against Tennessee to take a 7-point 4th quarter lead but a bizarre incorrect officiating call ended a scoring opportunity and gave the Titans the FG they needed to cover the number. Rams QB Marc Bulger’s pass clearly went forward, across the 30-yard line stripe. It was ruled a fumble, and the replay official must have been tired of HC Mike Martz’s challenges. Maybe that’s why he’s in the hospital this week. ESPN’s PrimeTime crew continued their Don’t criticize anyone ways, claiming insufficient evidence. Um, the 30-yard line goes across the whole field!

INVEST
Oakland 35 (-3) Dallas 20*. Once, an isolated incident. Twice, a trend. Three times, a problem. That’s SS Roy Williams in 2-deep coverage the past 2 weeks against the Redskins and 49ers. The Cowboys only have to face the most vertical passing attack in the league in this one.

SATURDAY
1:00 ET FOX HD Yankees: Randy Johnson (16-8) @ Red Sox: Tim Wakefield (16-11). White Sox Reserves: Garland (17-10) @ Indians: Westbrook (15-14).

3:30 ET ABC USC 48 (-16) Arizona State 24. I’ll be picking the Trojans to cover the points until they don’t.

3:30 ET CBS HD Alabama 19 (+3 ½) Florida 13. Florida’s new spread offense struggled in its other game against a good SEC defense, managing just 16 points against Tennessee.

4:45 ET ESPN Notre Dame 26 (+3) Purdue 24. HC Charlie Weis continues the Irish revival.

SUNDAY
1:00 ET ESPN HD Yankees: Mussina (13-8) @ Red Sox: Schilling (7-8).
1:00 ET ESPN2 HD? White Sox Reserves McCarthy (2-2) @ Indians: Elarton (11-8).

1:00 ET CBS HD San Diego 20 (+5 ½) at New England 24. The Patriots lost SS Rodney Harrison for the season due to injury last week. They still managed to win at Pittsburgh though. One reason why the Patriots are able to succeed despite numerous injuries is that every player on the roster is accustomed to playing. The Chargers got a much-needed victory last week and certainly have the talent to break the Patriots’ long winning streak at Gillette (soon to be P&G?) stadium.

1:00 ET CBS HD Jacksonville 20 (-4) Denver 14. This game could finish in under 3 hours, a rarity now with all of the long commercial breaks. Both teams emphasize running inside, so there doesn’t figure to be many points scored in this one.

4:15 ET FOX HD Philadelphia 24 (+1 ½) Kansas City 21. I’ll take the better defense in this one, even if the Eagles have a new kicker (David Akers must have watched some Curt Schilling video while preparing for the Raiders game last weekend) and a significantly injured Donovan McNabb. WR Terrell Owens and RB Brian Westbrook were great the last 2 weeks against the Bay Area teams.

7:30 ET ESPN HD NFL PrimeTime 8:30 ET San Francisco 30 (+2 ½) v. Arizona 18. The first NFL regular season game scheduled for Mexico, maybe the Cardinals will eventually get their first touchdown this season. QB Josh McCown is in for the injured Kurt Warner, but regardless of who the QB is, Arizona needs to start gaining some positive yards on the ground in order to have success. The 49ers came from ahead to lose last week to the Cowboys at the Stick last weekend. Cowboy fans outnumbering Niner fans ticked off the liberal sports-talk hosts in the Bay Area who were mad that Niner fans may have sold their tickets to Cowboy fans instead of giving them to Niner fans. It costs about $3-400 per game for 4 seats, and fans tend to keep good seats when a team struggles so that they don’t have to move to the nosebleeds when the on field performance picks up. 10 games x $300 = $3-4K for the season. If a fan can lower the season costs by a few hundred bucks by selling a couple of games, maybe that fan will be able to buy gas to get to the games in December.

MONDAY
1:00 ET ?ESPN/ESPN2. 1-game playoffs (if necessary) for the final spots. Yankees-Red Sox or Yankees-Indians or Red Sox-Indians and/or Phillies-Astros. If the Yankees, Red Sox, and Indians all finish tied, the Red Sox play the Yankees on Monday in New York and the loser plays the Indians on Tuesday for the Wild Card. One of those teams could have a beleaguered bullpen at the start of the division series.

9:00 ET ABC HD Carolina 31 (-7) Green Bay 20. The Packers are off to a horrible start this season. They can’t stop the opposition, and their offensive line play is down following the loss of both starting guards to free agency. The Panthers can’t afford to fall any further behind the 3-0 Buccaneers who have exceeded expectations out of the gate this season behind RB Cadillac Williams.